China's new amphibious assault ship Sichuan heads out for trial navigation. The Chinese military, which lacks sufficient tank landing ships and landing craft needed for amphibious operations, has also continued efforts to make use of civilian vessels. November 2025, Shanghai, China. (©Xinhua via Kyodo)
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On May 14 and 15, the US-China summit in Beijing was staged in a friendly atmosphere. But within the US government and among security experts, concern is growing over China's efforts to strengthen its amphibious assault capabilities with a Taiwan contingency in mind.
One reason is that Chinese military exercises using civilian fleets have become more sophisticated and appear to be shifting into a more combat-ready mode. In its annual report on China's military power released late last year, the US Department of War noted that China continues to use civilian roll-on/roll-off vessels, which allow vehicles to drive on and off under their own power, to compensate for shortages of tank landing ships and landing craft needed for amphibious operations.
It also included language that had not appeared in the previous reports: "PLAN [People's Liberation Army Navy] continues to train with civilian roll-on/roll-off commercial vessels, which may indicate that the PLAN is seeking to mitigate this shortfall by incorporating dual-use civilian lift vessels."
The Chinese military's use of civilian vessels has been noted since the 2010s. Why, then, is the Pentagon now sounding a stronger alarm? One useful reference point is an April report by the US Naval War College titled "Everything Everywhere All At Once: The Growing Complexity of PLA Amphibious Exercises," authored by Jason Wang, chief operating officer of IngeniSPACE, and others.
A More Realistic Rehearsal
The report analyzed China's amphibious exercises over the past five years and concluded that drills conducted in August 2025 showed signs that the Chinese military had significantly improved its ability to conduct operations involving civilian fleets.
In those exercises, the PLA combined elements that had previously been practiced only in part, including the use of floating piers and command and control of units at multiple locations. Chinese naval vessels and civilian ships operated together to land personnel and combat vehicles at three sites along China's coast.
China has carried out landings at multiple locations before. But in 2025, its forces first operated as a large formation and then dispersed into smaller units. The distance between the eastern and western edges of the exercise area matched the roughly 360 kilometers between Taipei and Kaohsiung (main port city in Taiwan), reinforcing the impression that the drill was a rehearsal for a Taiwan landing.
Another notable point was that, in past exercises, aquaculture facilities offshore from the landing sites had been removed in advance. In the 2025 exercise, however, they were left in place.
The waters off Taiwan's western coast, where Chinese landings are considered likely in an invasion scenario, are home to extensive shrimp and seaweed farming. Rafts and cages used for aquaculture could become obstacles to an amphibious operation, suggesting that the PLA intended to make the drill more realistic.
The Element of Surprise
For the Chinese military, the use of civilian vessels is not only a way to compensate for a shortage of military ships. It is also a means of tilting the battlefield in China's favor. US and Taiwanese forces would have to widen their surveillance targets to include civilian vessels, making it harder to detect signs of an invasion. The report said dual-use vessels maximize "the probability of surprise."
In 2023, then-CIA Director William Burns disclosed intelligence indicating that Chinese President Xi Jinping had instructed the military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The Naval War College report could signal that the Chinese military is steadily implementing Xi's directive.
Still, there are limits to China's amphibious exercises. In a 2024 report, former senior US naval intelligence officer Thomas Shugart noted that PLA drills had been conducted only under ideal weather conditions.
The 2025 exercise appears to have been carried out under similar conditions, and the Naval War College report predicted that China would likely conduct future exercises "in more difficult weather conditions."
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Author: Koji Sugimoto, The Sankei Shimbun
(Read this article in Japanese)
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