US President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping visit the Temple of Heaven in Beijing on May 14. (©Reuters/Kyodo)
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What if President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reach a deal that calms US-China tensions, but leaves Japan and Taiwan more exposed?
That question now hangs over the Indo-Pacific as Trump and Xi hold talks in Beijing. Yuki Tatsumi, senior director at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security and senior research fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, says the concern is what Washington might offer Beijing in return for cooperation on trade, technology, or even the Middle East.
Tatsumi suggested that if Trump needs China to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table, Beijing is unlikely to offer that leverage for free.
Chinese state media said Xi has already told Trump that Taiwan is the most important issue in US-China relations and warned that mishandling it could lead to "clashes and even conflicts."
Taiwan, Tatsumi said, will be watching whether Washington agrees to "anything that changes the principles" of longstanding US policy toward the island. That could mean new wording favorable to Beijing, reduced support for Taiwan's defense, or weaker signals about how the US would respond in a crisis, which would be "unbearable for Taiwan—and Japan as well."
Implications in Asia
A Taiwan-related concession would not only alarm Taipei and Tokyo. It would also send a wider signal to the region that Washington's commitments may be more negotiable than allies and partners had assumed.
That would be especially unsettling for Southeast Asian countries that already face Chinese pressure in the South China Sea but remain cautious about openly choosing sides.
According to Tatsumi, few governments would publicly say they are preparing for a future without reliable US leadership, but they may be looking for additional ways to protect their interests.
In that scenario, Japan's role would likely grow as a more important anchor for countries seeking a balance against China. "If countries in the region were asked which country could serve as a regional leader in resisting China—even if not as a substitute for the US—the answer would probably be Japan," Tatsumi said.
Middle Power Network
But with Japan's economy and military capabilities far smaller than China's, Tatsumi believes Tokyo may increasingly work with middle power countries to preserve regional frameworks if US leadership becomes less dependable.
The country is already moving in that direction. Tatsumi pointed to its recent participation in the Balikatan military exercises in the Philippines as a sign of how quickly its security role is evolving.
Japan has taken part in US-led and partner drills as an observer before, but in recent years it has begun sending Self-Defense Forces units.
Crucially, Tatsumi noted that Japan dispatched personnel from all three branches—the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces—for the first time "in a form resembling a joint force."
Strategic Role of the Philippines
The Philippines sits near sea lanes vital to Japan, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. The Bashi Channel, between Taiwan and the Philippines, is a particularly important route for shipping, trade, and energy supplies from the Middle East.
Tatsumi explained, "For the countries closest to those routes to demonstrate through exercises that they can cooperate for regional peace and security—especially maritime security—is extremely significant."
China's sharp reaction to the joint drills was also revealing. "China chooses the events it strongly protests," Tatsumi said. If the exercise did not matter to Beijing, it would not have responded so forcefully.
Weapons Exports
Furthermore, Japan is moving toward the transfer of used defense equipment to the Philippines, including Abukuma-class destroyers and TC-90 aircraft. an arrangement Tatsumi described as a potential "win-win" for both countries.
In April, Japan's cabinet approved a significant relaxation of its arms export rules, opening the door for the country to sell finished defense equipment—including lethal weapons—overseas.
Japan's retired military hardware tends to be in excellent condition for two main reasons: it is generally retired earlier than US equipment, and, unlike American forces, Japan's Self-Defense Forces are not deployed in combat, so their ships and aircraft do not suffer the same battlefield wear.
"For the Philippines, it's cheaper than buying very expensive equipment from the US, but still far more capable than what it can produce on its own," Tatsumi said. "For Japan, it creates demand for new contracts and helps maintain engineers, production lines, and parts suppliers."
Economic Security and Defense
Another reason why partnerships with Asian middle powers matter is the growing convergence of economic security and defense, which Tatsumi describes as "two wheels of the same vehicle."
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent visits to Vietnam and Australia focused not only on defense cooperation but also on energy security, critical minerals, and resilient supply chains.
Tatsumi argues that Japan needs partners that can provide resources outside China's control, as well as countries where Japanese investment can support mining, processing, and production.
Many technologies now used in modern warfare first emerged in the civilian sector, including cyber capabilities, AI, quantum computing, drones, and autonomous systems. In the past, military technology often spun off into civilian use, such as the internet and GPS. Now, Tatsumi said, the flow is increasingly the other way around.
Emphasizing the importance of supply chains, Tatsumi said, "You cannot do missile defense without semiconductors. "Aircraft will not fly, fighter jets will not fly, and simulators will not operate."
A Network That Compliments US Security
While the Japan-US alliance remains the cornerstone of Japan's foreign and security policy, Tokyo is already seeking to deepen strategic security partnerships with like-minded countries in Asia, as Takaichi has outlined in her policy speeches.
If Washington trades away strategic principles for concessions that affect the Indo-Pacific, Tokyo is likely to accelerate those efforts—building resilience with other middle-power partners that can complement, rather than replace, the alliance system.
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Author: Daniel Manning
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