Japan Must Take Responsibility for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation

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The government has approved a revised emergency preparedness plan for a major earthquake directly beneath the capital. Efforts to achieve the new disaster mitigation targets must now be accelerated.

A metropolitan earthquake is projected to cause up to approximately 18,000 deaths and destroy or burn some 400,000 buildings. The revised plan sets a target of reducing both figures by more than half over the next decade.

The previous plan had aimed for a roughly 50% reduction over ten years, but actual results fell short at only a 20–30% decrease, largely because building earthquake-proofing and fire-prevention measures had not advanced sufficiently.

With a metropolitan earthquake forecast at around 70% probability within the next 30 years, further delays in mitigation are unacceptable.

Drawing on lessons from past shortcomings, the government has substantially increased the number of numerical targets and established a new framework for annual review of progress and challenges.

The disaster management agency scheduled to be established later this year will be expected to implement the new plan rigorously. It will be granted the authority to issue recommendations to individual ministries and strong directives to those falling behind.

Fire Prevention Gets Top Priority

Roughly 70% of projected deaths and building damage would result from fire. The Great Hanshin and Great East Japan earthquakes both saw numerous fires caused by electrical systems.

The plan accordingly emphasizes wider installation of seismic breakers—devices that cut power when strong tremors are detected, preventing fires caused by toppled appliances and facilitating restoration of electricity after outages.

The installation rate stood at 20% in fiscal 2024, but the plan calls for raising it to near-universal coverage. Seismic breakers come in various types at various price points and are available at home improvement stores.

To accelerate uptake, the government should expand purchase subsidies, particularly in high fire-risk areas, and retailers should work to raise awareness by expanding shelf space for these products.

Misinformation and Overcentralization

Also worth noting is a new provision that commits the government to actively countering disaster-related misinformation on social media—a growing problem that warrants close attention.

The concentration of people, businesses, and government functions in the Tokyo metropolitan area means that damage there would have sweeping effects on the national economy.