Japan and the Future of a Free Asia

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US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing on May 14 and 15, agreeing to build what they called a "constructive, strategically stable relationship." For Japan and the wider world, it is not a bad thing that two nuclear-armed powers should seek stability, at least for now, rather than further inflame tensions.

But the talks offered no answers on how the United States intends to bring an end to the war with Iran, which began in late February. Nor did they address what the world would face if China used force to unify Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose nuclear-armed country has continued its war of aggression against Ukraine for more than four years, visited Beijing on May 19 for talks with Xi in a move widely seen as an attempt to strengthen China-Russia ties. In an era when great powers pursue their own interests and compete for influence, what can a middle power like Japan do?

A Bigger Role for Japan

Last week, Japan Forward's most-read articles were on the US-China summit and a possible Taiwan contingency.

Among them was an article titled, "Trump Meeting with Xi Could Accelerate Japan's Indo-Pacific Strategy." In it, reporter Daniel Manning interviewed Yuki Tatsumi, senior director at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security and senior research fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, about the US-China summit. The article examined her view that Japan's Indo-Pacific strategy is likely to advance further, with China increasingly at its center.

Tatsumi argued that if Trump needs China to apply pressure to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, Beijing is unlikely to cooperate without extracting something in return. She warned that if Washington appears willing to make concessions to China over Taiwan, doubts about US credibility will grow. That, in turn, would likely prompt neighboring countries, including Japan, to move more quickly to deepen their cooperation.

Tatsumi noted, "If countries in the region were asked which country could serve as a regional leader in resisting China—even if not as a substitute for the US—the answer would probably be Japan."

Japan is already moving in that direction. It has participated in joint military exercises in the Philippines and has begun steps to transfer defense equipment, including used destroyers and training aircraft. Its efforts to strengthen cooperation with regional partners are steadily advancing.

Manning concluded that Japan's aim is not to replace the US-Japan alliance, but to build a broader security network with other middle-power partners that can complement the alliance system and strengthen regional resilience.

FOIP Enters a New Phase

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent visits to Vietnam and Australia also showed that the agenda extends beyond defense cooperation. Energy security, critical minerals, and resilient supply chains were among the key themes.

Prime Minister Takaichi delivered a speech at Vietnam National University in Hanoi, where she set out her intention to update the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) vision first proposed a decade ago by then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. She identified three priorities: building economic infrastructure for the age of AI and data, creating new economic growth opportunities and shared rules through public-private cooperation, and expanding security cooperation.

She closed by calling on "resilient countries that own their choices" to work together to build a Free and Open Indo-Pacific as the foundation for their peace and prosperity.

There is no future in a model of authoritarianism and repression. A free and open Asia has the potential to prosper peacefully alongside Japan. It is no exaggeration to say that Asia will help shape the future of the world. Japan Forward will continue reporting from the front lines of this changing region.

Watch for the next issue on June 17.

Japan Forward is a media outlet driven by an unparalleled passion to advance the future of Japan and its role in the world. For inquiries, please call 0570-033-433 (Sankei iD) or email us at info@japan-forward.com.