Japan's Record Tourism Surge Faces a Crisis-Readiness Test

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Is Japan's tourism boom as resilient as the record numbers suggest? Or do the headline figures mask deeper vulnerabilities—from geopolitical shocks and natural disasters to overcrowding in a few world-famous destinations?

Japan welcomed a record 42.7 million foreign visitors in 2025, crossing the 40 million mark for the first time. In February 2026, arrivals again reached a monthly high of around 3.46 million, even as Chinese visitor numbers fell sharply amid diplomatic tensions.

Masato Takamatsu, a tourism crisis-management expert and advisory consultant at JTB Tourism Research & Consulting, sees those figures as evidence of a significant shift: Japan's inbound market is becoming less dependent on any single country and more adaptable in the face of disruption.

Looking Beyond China

"In one sense, Japan's tourism industry showed very strong resilience," Takamatsu told Japan Forward. Even as the once-dominant Chinese market slowed, he said, "the decline from China was offset by increases from other countries."

That shift was not accidental. As political tensions made China a less predictable source of visitors, travel operators quickly recognized that the market "could no longer be counted on in the same way" and intensified their outreach to Europe, the United States, Africa, and the Middle East.

Cancellations from China also eased price pressure, making Japan more affordable for travelers from other regions. Together with the weak yen, which helped broaden Japan's appeal. "Tourists increasingly see Japan as good value for money," Takamatsu said.

Before the pandemic, Japan's tourism sector leaned heavily on China. At one point, Chinese visitors made up more than 30% of all inbound arrivals—a concentration Takamatsu says always carried risk.

"As with any business, if you become too dependent on one market, the entire business is exposed when something happens there," he said.

The recent drop in China's share, however, may leave Japan's tourism industry on firmer ground. As visitors from other markets grow, the overall balance improves, and the risk is spread more widely. "In that sense, I think the outcome has been positive," Takamatsu explained.

Rethinking Overtourism

The benefits of diversification may also extend beyond source markets. Chinese tourists often traveled in large numbers but stayed relatively briefly, Takamatsu noted, with many following the familiar "golden route" from Tokyo to Hakone and Kyoto. Visitors from Europe and Latin America, by contrast, often stay for two or three weeks, and sometimes longer.

"Travelers coming from farther away tend to stay longer, which gives them more chances to visit smaller regional towns," he said. "In that sense, market diversification can bring real benefits and new opportunities to local areas."

Takamatsu is also more measured than many commentators on overtourism. He acknowledges the pressure on places such as Kyoto, Mount Fuji, and other popular destinations, but says the problem is often concentrated in specific locations at specific times.

"Is it really like that 365 days a year, 24 hours a day?" he asked. Even in Kyoto, he said, serious congestion is largely limited to areas such as Kyoto Station, Kiyomizu-dera, and Arashiyama. "Other parts of Kyoto would probably say they want more visitors."

Rather than seeing overtourism as an uncontrollable crisis, Takamatsu frames it as a problem of visitor flow. The challenge, he says, is to spread visitors beyond the busiest sites, hours, and seasons. 

The Visitor Gap in Disaster Planning

Japan's bigger test may be disaster preparedness. The country is widely seen as safe and convenient, but it is also located in a region prone to earthquakes, typhoons, tsunamis, and volcanic activity.

Takamatsu praised Japan's disaster-prevention system for residents, calling it one of the most advanced in the world. "There is probably no other country where every municipality has its own disaster-prevention plan," he said. "Even a village with fewer than 1,000 people has a plan."

The problem is that those systems are usually built around residents—not visitors.

"When it comes to travelers, especially international travelers, I do not think Japan is prepared enough," Takamatsu said. "For many disaster-prevention officials and experts, visitors—let alone foreign visitors—are often not part of the picture."

Learning from Hawaii

He pointed to Hawaii as a model Japan could learn from. Because tourism is so central to the state's economy, tourism officials are built into the highest level of crisis response. In an emergency, the governor and the head of the Hawaii Tourism Authority sit together in the emergency operations center, enabling quick decision-making.

Takamatsu also pointed to the Visitors Aloha Society of Hawaii, VASH, as an example of the kind of visitor-support culture Japan lacks. The group helps tourists not only during major disasters, but also in everyday emergencies. If a visitor's rental car is broken into and their passport, credit cards, and money are stolen, VASH steps in to provide practical support until they can return home.

He also emphasized that the group is rooted in Hawaii's private-sector and civic culture. According to Takamatsu, many members are business leaders, but they are expected to prioritize helping stranded or distressed visitors even over company meetings.

From Safety to Peace of Mind

The issue is not only physical safety. Takamatsu draws a sharp distinction between the Japanese words anzen, meaning safety, and anshin, meaning reassurance or peace of mind.

"Japan is good at providing safety," he said. "But safety and reassurance are completely different." During the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, he noted, thousands of tourists were in the area, yet none were injured. "Lives can be protected," he said. The harder task is helping stranded visitors who cannot get home, cannot use their phones, or do not know what is happening.

For foreign visitors, he said, reassurance depends above all on access to information. "People who choose to travel all the way to Japan, where they do not speak the language, are adults," he said. "They have the ability to understand. The problem is that they often do not have the information they need to decide how to act."

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Author: Daniel Manning

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