Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks at a meeting of relevant ministers on the Middle East situation, March 31, at the Prime Minister's Office.
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World leaders are oscillating between hope and anxiety in response to recent statements by US President Donald Trump.
Trump had warned Iran that it would be "living in hell," but on April 7, the United States and Iran unexpectedly announced a two-week ceasefire agreement. This was followed by talks over the weekend.
However, the negotiations ended in deadlock. It remains unclear whether the fragile ceasefire will hold. Countries around the world—including Japan, which relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil—are watching developments with bated breath.
The conflict began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran's leadership, military facilities, and weapons infrastructure. Iran retaliated with attacks on US forces and neighboring countries, disrupting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint in the Persian Gulf.
After the latest talks, the United States announced plans to impose a blockade of the strait, while both sides continue a fierce strategic struggle over energy routes and logistics.
The US and Israel have said their actions were intended to halt Iran's nuclear development, but it remains unclear to what extent that objective has been achieved.
Oil Shock and Global Power Shifts
Furthermore, the Iran conflict has driven up oil prices, which in turn has created favorable conditions for oil-producing Russia, allowing it to secure substantial wartime funding. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a country that has been drawing closer to the West, is now entering its fifth year.
Meanwhile, China and India are also seeking to strengthen their positions amid these conditions. Beijing is reportedly preparing to supply air defense missiles to bolster Iran's air defense capabilities. A growing reality is that countries are increasingly treating war as a tool for advancing their national interests.
Japan-US Alliance
What, then, are Japan's national interests? Japan Forward has explored this question from different angles through a range of content, including interviews, podcasts, and videos.
Our most-read article last week was "Former Trump Adviser: US Expects More From Japan Than Just Iran Policy," in which reporter Daniel Manning interviewed Alexander Gray about what the Trump administration expects from Tokyo. Gray served as Chief of Staff of the National Security Council and Deputy Assistant to the President during the first Trump administration, and is now a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council.
The interview prompts renewed reflection on what Japan's national interests really mean.
Gray emphasized that "the challenge facing the two countries is China and Chinese malign activity," adding that "Japan's our most important alliance in the 21st century." He described responding to China as the central pillar of the alliance and called the Takaichi administration "uniquely situated to be a governing partner for the US."
For Gray, the real question is not whether the alliance looks strong on paper but whether Japan can continue making itself a more capable strategic partner in practice. He pointed repeatedly to domestic reform as the key test, arguing that what ultimately matters is "pure military capability and enhancing the capacity to use it for deterrence purposes."
National Priorities
Japan is surrounded by nuclear-armed authoritarian states such as China, Russia, and North Korea, making it unavoidable to strengthen its defense capabilities.
Peace does not come from simply speaking of an idealized peace. Preparing for times of crisis and strengthening the ability to protect Japan's territory, assets, and citizens is the highest national priority.
At the same time, securing Japan's future means playing an active role on the global stage, fostering greater alignment around shared values of democracy and the rule of law. As a bilingual media outlet based in Japan, we hope to contribute to that effort.
Watch for the next issue on May 19.
Japan Forward is a media outlet driven by an unparalleled passion to advance the future of Japan and its role in the world. For inquiries, please call 0570-033-433 (Sankei iD) or email us at info@japan-forward.com.
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Author: Yasuo Naito, Editor in Chief
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