A test-launch of an upgraded surface-to-surface tactical ballistic missile conducted on April 19. (©Korean Central News Agency)
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North Korea's latest missile tests suggest the regime is sharpening short-range capabilities for regional contingencies, even as it presses ahead with longer-range weapons designed to deter the United States.
On April 19, Pyongyang launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward the sea, with its state media saying the test involved improved tactical ballistic missiles fitted with cluster bombs and fragmentation-mine warheads
The launch followed earlier reported test-firing of strategic cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles from North Korea's new 5,000-ton destroyer Choe Hyon, pointing to a broader effort to improve both the scale and practical use of its arsenal.
Sunday's launch marked the nuclear-armed state's fourth missile test this month and seventh this year.
Regional Strike Threat
For regional security planners, the regime's shorter-range capabilities may be the more immediate concern.
Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute, said North Korea's increased testing of missiles with ranges under 1,000 kilometers suggests "it is studying not only technical improvements, such as making them hypersonic to penetrate enemy air defenses and strike targets in wartime, but also operational methods for actual use."
Those methods could include shortening launch intervals, saturating defenses through multiple rapid launches, and firing from several locations at the same target, he said.
The reported use of cluster-type warheads adds another layer of complexity. Such weapons are designed to disperse smaller bomblets over a wide area, making them useful against ground forces but controversial because of the risks they pose to civilians.
More than 120 countries have signed an international convention banning the use of cluster munitions, but North Korea, Iran, Israel and the US are not among them.
The cluster munition tested this time appeared to have a range of about 136 kilometers, putting Seoul and several critical US bases within reach but falling short of Japan. To strike the latter, Nagao said, a range of roughly 1,000 to 1,300 kilometers would be needed.
Sunday's test also drew scrutiny over a possible submarine-launched ballistic missile capability. If confirmed, it would point to an effort to bolster deterrence with a more survivable second-strike option, even as North Korea's submarine fleet remains technically immature, the Hudson fellow said.
Dual Deterrence Tactic
Meanwhile, the flurry of activity comes as the UN's nuclear watchdog has warned that Pyongyang is making "very serious" progress in its nuclear weapons program. Estimates of its nuclear stockpile vary, though outside assessments such as SIPRI's have put the figure at around 50 warheads.
Experts say the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, along with the US operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January, likely strengthened Pyongyang's view that nuclear weapons remain essential to regime survival.
"The US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and earlier operations in Venezuela, have likely reinforced North Korea's long-held belief that Washington would pursue regime change and decapitate its leadership if it chose to," said Moon Chung-in, a former South Korean presidential adviser and professor emeritus at Yonsei University.
In that context, Moon said North Korea is pursuing what he described as "dual deterrence."
"North Korea appears intent on demonstrating that it possesses a so-called striking capability against US forces stationed in South Korea and Japan, while at the same time accelerating ICBM development to convince Washington that it can strike the American mainland," he said.
In practice, Moon said, that means Pyongyang is likely to continue testing short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles while honing its intercontinental systems. Another ICBM test within this year cannot be ruled out, he added.
The Succession Question
Beyond the military message, Kim Jong Un's attendance at the latest test with his teenage daughter, Kim Ju Ae, further fueled speculation about the 13-year-old's emerging role in one of the world's most opaque states.
South Korea's spy agency recently said it had credible intelligence indicating Kim Ju Ae has been positioned as her father's likely successor.
Moon, however, disputed that interpretation, saying it is "nonsense to talk about succession politics in North Korea at this point."
Rather than signaling a transfer of power, Moon said Kim's appearances with his daughter are better understood as part of a domestic political effort to portray him as a family-oriented, caring leader, particularly among younger North Koreans increasingly exposed to external culture.
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
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