ODDS and EVENS | World Cup Storylines Collide in Japan-Brazil Showdown

Japan is preparing for the biggest men's soccer match in the nation's history. At the same time, Brazil is seeking to take the next step in its pursuit of a record-extending sixth FIFA World Cup title.

Compelling storylines collide in this World Cup round of 32 match in Houston, Texas, on Monday afternoon, June 29 (2 AM JST on Tuesday).

The Samurai Blue, competing in their eighth consecutive World Cup, are playing their first-ever knockout phase game against a former tournament champion.

Brazil won three World Cups (1958, 1962 and '70) in its golden era, with Pele cementing his legacy as an all-time great footballer.

Twenty-four years later, Brazil captured its fourth crown, beating Italy in a penalty shootout at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. And then collected its fifth World Cup championship trophy in June 2002 in Yokohama.

Will Brazil's current 24-year title drought end in July?

To accomplish that goal, Italian manager Carlo Ancelotti's squad needs to win five more matches.

Brazil defender Eder Militao, who also plays for Spanish La Liga side Real Madrid, expressed a resolute belief that the South American squad will reach the round of 16.

"I'm very confident," Militao said, according to ESPN. "We're showing our progress with every game. We have everything we need to get a good result against Japan."

Militao also insisted that Japan won't be a pushover.

"We have to be very careful," Militao said in an interview with the global sports media giant. "They never stop running. If they can deliver a knockout blow, they'll do it. They have excellent tactical discipline; they have players who are very dedicated."

World Cup: The Path to the Round of 32

In Group C, Brazil opened its 2026 World Cup campaign with a 1-1 draw with Morocco. Ancelotti's men defeated Haiti 3-0 in their next match, followed by a 3-0 rout of Scotland to wrap up the group stage.

Vinicius Junior leads the Selecao with four goals. Teammate Matheus Cunha has scored three.

In Group F, Japan played to a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands. Manager Hajime Moriyasu's team topped Tunisia 4-0 in its second match, then closed out the group stage with a 1-1 tie against Sweden on June 25.

Against the Netherlands, Japan trailed 1-0. And after leveling the score, it fell behind 2-1.

The Samurai Blue squandered its 1-0 advantage versus Sweden, when Anthony Elanga tied it up in the 62nd minute.

"After scoring, we've [often] conceded goals to our opponents. This is the kind of situation we need to improve in," Japan Football Association President Tsuneyasu Miyamoto, captain of the nation's 2006 World Cup squad, told ESPN.

Members of Japan's coaching staff, including Moriyasu, and the players have repeatedly said the team's goal is to win the 2026 World Cup.

Acknowledging Japan's stated goal of shocking the world and capturing the title, Miyamoto emphasized another objective.

"We have never reached the quarterfinals ― so that is our biggest goal," Miyamoto said, according to ESPN.

Japan has advanced to the round of 16 on four occasions, including in 2018 and 2022, when it was eliminated by Croatia in a penalty shootout in Qatar.

A Match to Remember

In the run-up to the ongoing World Cup, there was plenty of banter among Japan national team fans and soccer pundits about the significance of the Samurai Blue's 3-2 victory over Brazil in an international friendly on October 14, 2025, in Tokyo.

One prominent school of thought: That was then; this is now. In other words, don't overvalue the outcome of an exhibition game.

Japan forward Ayase Ueda said he and his teammates have gained confidence by beating Brazil and other quality opponents in recent years.

But Japan's first-ever win over Brazil in 14 matches (following 11 losses and two draws) doesn't mean much now, according to Ueda.

"That experience cannot be taken into account," Ueda was quoted as saying by Kyodo News. "It has no relevance in terms of the setup, the level of the game.

"[But] the changing impressions that we have of our opponents show Japan's development."

Injured attacker Takumi Minamino, who scored against Brazil in the October friendly, is sidelined with a knee injury sustained in December 2025. The AS Monaco standout shared his perspective on Japan's quest to beat Brazil and compete even further in the knockout phase of the tourney.

"If we play with the underdog mentality, as we always have, I believe we have the ability to make something happen in these one-off games," Minamino said, according to Kyodo News.

Moriyasu, now managing in his second World Cup, offered his perspective on the well-publicized friendly against Brazil and the teams' rematch in Houston.

"Perhaps because of that match they will be motivated even more," Moriyasu said of Brazil, according to Agence France-Presse. "Yet we believe there's a chance for us to win."

The Impact of Ancelotti

In an ultra-successful managerial career, Ancelotti is the only football boss to win the UEFA Champions League title five times ― doing so with AC Milan (twice) and Real Madrid (three times).

What's more, the 67-year-old is the only manager in history to win season titles in each of Europe's top five leagues: Italy's Serie A, England's Premier League, France's Ligue 1, Germany's Bundesliga and Spain's La Liga.

In May 2025, Ancelotti was appointed as the first foreign manager to lead Brazil's national team, leaving Real Madrid for a new coaching challenge.

The Italian became Brazil's fifth manager in two-and-a-half years, a turbulent period for the national team as it seeks to regain its former glory.

Brazil exited the 2022 World Cup in the quarterfinals, placing seventh overall, its worst showing in the 21st century.

Now, a year into Ancelotti's tenure, the team's identity is shaping up to match his coaching philosophy.

"Under Carlo Ancelotti, the South Americans have been pragmatic in structure but devastating on the counter," the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) website observed.

Potential Key Factors for Japan and Brazil

Taking into account the makeup of both squads at the World Cup, how significant will the absence of injured Samurai Blue veteran players Wataru Endo, Kaoru Mitoma and Minamino be?

And does Japan have enough playmakers on offense to outscore Brazil?

A number of media outlets have correctly noted that Ueda is a key catalyst for Japan, citing his talents as a scorer (two goals in this World Cup) and passer (one assist).

That said, for Japan to beat Brazil in this high-stakes showdown, I believe it will need standout performances from all of its players who enter the match.

The AFC website's match preview pinpointed how Ueda's teammates can augment his skills.

"Around him, Ritsu Doan, Daizen Maeda, Junya Ito and [Keito] Nakamura provide pace and direct running — qualities Japan will need if they are to exploit Brazil in transition," the article stated.

If Takefusa Kubo is able to play after sitting out the last two matches after injuring his left knee against the Netherlands, it could give Japan an additional spark on the counterattack.

Brazil's rich history in the tournament provides nostalgia for soccer fans back home. But during a World Cup, memories of past success are afterthoughts.

Ancelotti is challenging his players to keep getting better, recognizing that's one of the keys for Brazil to be a title contender in the summer of 2026.

"We're not perfect, we can improve," Ancelotti said after the Scotland match, Reuters reported. "For example, our pace on the ball. We can be quicker. But I'm pleased because the team has improved a lot since the first match.

"Now it's a knockout competition. We need to show real grit."

More Perspectives on This World Cup Matchup

Japan goalkeeper Zion Suzuki, a World Cup debutant, showed his athleticism and stayed poised against Sweden. He allowed just one goal and made several impressive saves.

The 23-year-old has gained valuable experience since the 48-nation tournament began on June 11.

"I feel like I'm growing in some way with every match," Suzuki was quoted as saying by The Yomiuri Shimbun.

On paper, Brazil looks like the clear-cut favorite to advance to the round of 16.

But Japan's discipline and team chemistry pose challenges, too, for any opponent.

Just ask Sweden forward Viktor Gyokeres.

"I think their work rate is outstanding, so you have to match that," Gyokeres said of the Samurai Blue, according to Kyodo News. "It feels like they're always in the right position defensively and then offensively."

The Last Word

Brazilian legend Zico Coimbra, who managed Japan at the 2006 World Cup, is an avid follower of both national teams. Twenty years ago, Brazil defeated Japan 4-1 in the teams' final Group F match.

Fast forward to 2026 and the evolution of Japanese soccer is noteworthy, said Zico.

"Japan are at a more competitive level now," he told FIFA.com. "Their players have been heading to Europe, just like Brazilian and South American players did. Of their 26 players at the World Cup, 23 play in Europe and they're getting to play in the Bundesliga, in Serie A, in the Premier League."

What else has changed since Zico's tenure (2002-06) as Samurai Blue boss ended?

"Of course the team has improved tactically, but the bigger issue for Japan was always psychological," Zico commented. "They now know how to deal with adversity and can respond when they fall behind."

Author: Ed Odeven

Follow Ed's [Japan Sports Notebook] on Sundays, [Odds and Evens] during the week, and he can be found on X (formerly Twitter) ＠ed_odeven.