Oil Supply Fears Expose Reliance on Middle East Imports

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Concerns over crude oil supplies are growing as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy transport, faces mounting constraints.

More than 90% of the crude oil imported into Japan comes from the Middle East. Some of it is refined into naphtha, a petroleum product used to make plastics and other materials essential to everyday goods. Any disruption in crude oil supply, therefore, threatens to cast a long shadow over nearly every aspect of daily life in Japan.

An Irreplaceable Supply Route

Crude oil from the Middle East passes through the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, then travels through waters near Taiwan on its way to Japan.

According to Takeshi Kaneda, head of the Universal Energy Research Institute and an expert on energy issues, the strait has effectively become Japan's one indispensable supply route. "Alternative routes via the Red Sea do exist, but there is no way to redirect such large volumes overnight," he explained.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan imported approximately 136.29 million kiloliters of crude oil in fiscal 2024—enough to fill about 110 Tokyo Domes. Of that total, 96%, or roughly 130.73 million kiloliters, came from the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates.

The crude oil imported into Japan is refined at 19 domestic refineries into fuels such as gasoline, heavy oil, and kerosene. According to fiscal 2024 statistics compiled by the Petroleum Association of Japan, gasoline accounted for the largest share at about 31%, followed by diesel at roughly 25% and heavy oil at around 16%. Naphtha accounted for about 10% of total output, with about 12.89 million kiloliters produced.

Over 70% of Imported Naphtha Is From the Middle East

Naphtha is also imported in processed form from abroad, with imports totaling about 23.09 million kiloliters—more than the amount refined domestically. More than 70% of that, or roughly 16.98 million kiloliters, comes from the Middle East, a sign of Japan's deep ties to the region.

Combined with domestic output, Japan handles about 35.97 million kiloliters of naphtha, which is then turned into six core petrochemicals: ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene, and xylene.

Those substances are sent on to specialized plants for further processing and eventually become the materials that support everyday life, from plastics, synthetic fibers, and rubber to paints, solvents, fertilizers, and pharmaceuticals.

Following the attack on Iran, concerns over naphtha procurement intensified, prompting chemical manufacturers such as Mitsubishi Chemical and Mitsui Chemicals to successively scale back ethylene production. They are also moving to secure naphtha from sources outside the Middle East.

But in the current conflict, petrochemical facilities in the region have come under attack, meaning that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, it is far from clear whether supplies can return to normal quickly.

Kaneda warned that "It would deal a critical blow to everyday life," he said. "We need to think seriously about using alternatives that do not rely on crude oil-derived materials, such as paper bags and paper straws."