An evening view of Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo Chiyoda Ward. (©Sankei)
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has spent much of her political career casting herself as an unapologetic conservative. Yasukuni Shrine, founded in the Meiji era to commemorate Japan's war dead, has long been a place where that identity was on full display.
But that symbolism is increasingly testing the incumbent, forcing her to balance a conservative base that expects gestures of national pride against the constraints of national leadership.
Last week, Takaichi stayed away from the shrine's three-day spring festival, which ended on April 23, sending a ritual offering instead of appearing in person. Local media reported that the move was likely to avoid a backlash from Japan's neighboring countries.
The restraint did not buy her much goodwill. Foreign ministries in China and South Korea swiftly issued strong rebukes, with the former stating the prime minister's act "grossly tramples on human conscience."
The spring rite is over, but the issue is unlikely to fade. With August 15 approaching, attention is already turning to whether Takaichi will visit the shrine on or near the anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II.
A Shrine Becomes a Test
Founded in 1869, Yasukuni Shrine honors more than 2.46 million of Japan's war dead, among them 14 wartime leaders convicted or indicted as so-called Class-A war criminals by the postwar Allied tribunal. Visits by sitting Japanese leaders have long angered Beijing and Seoul, which see them as evidence of Japan glorifying its militarist past rather than reckoning with it.
Before taking office, Takaichi had repeatedly paid her respects there, including during her years as a cabinet minister. But during the LDP leadership race in October 2025, the shrine became an early test of whether she would carry her conservative instincts into the nation's highest office.
Her first answer came later that month, when she skipped the shrine's autumn rite after winning the LDP leadership and becoming prime minister-in-waiting.
Public opinion did not make that an easy choice. In a Jiji Press poll conducted in October, 41.2% of respondents supported a possible Takaichi visit to Yasukuni, nearly double the 21.8% who opposed it. Among LDP supporters, backing rose to 49.3%.
While the precise reason for her latest absence remains unclear, Rintaro Nishimura, a senior associate at The Asia Group, says it reflects a realistic assessment of the strategic environment.
"From Tokyo's standpoint, it doesn't make sense to 'rock the boat,'" he said. "With Japan-China relations already at a low and relations with South Korea in a solid state, a Yasukuni visit would have created unnecessary friction and upped the ante."
At home, however, Yasukuni remains a powerful political marker, especially for conservatives who see paying tribute there as a matter of national dignity and pride.
Reaching for the Abe Playbook
Takaichi's immediate predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, took a more cautious approach. Although he came from the same ruling party, Ishiba was never as closely identified with Yasukuni politics and avoided making the shrine a defining feature of his premiership.
Shinzo Abe, Takaichi's political mentor, offers a more complicated precedent. In December 2013, Abe became the first sitting prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi to visit Yasukuni Shrine. The act drew sharp criticism from China and South Korea, as well as an unusually public expression of disappointment from Washington. After that, Abe generally relied on ritual offerings to minimize diplomatic fallout.
Takaichi appears to be reaching for a similar playbook—but under less forgiving conditions. Tokyo's relations with Beijing have deteriorated sharply amid disputes over security, trade, and Taiwan-related issues. Ties with South Korea have improved markedly, but remain vulnerable to historical tensions that can quickly inflame public opinion on both sides.
Choi Eunmi, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, says the recent controversy comes as Tokyo is rapidly loosening defense restrictions and expanding its regional security and diplomatic commitments.
"Whether the Takaichi government can avoid unnecessary flare-ups over history while balancing deterrence with crisis management will be a crucial test," she said.
As Japan takes on a larger role, Choi added, "it will be essential for regional countries to maintain channels of management and communication so that Japan's expanded posture contributes to stability in Northeast Asia."
Pressure From the Right
Further complicating the matter is Takaichi's new ruling partner. Nippon Ishin no Kai, the LDP's junior coalition partner, is far more comfortable with a muscular policy than ex-partner Komeito, which traditionally served as a brake on more nationalist gestures.
On October 5 last year, Fumitake Fujita, Ishin's co-head, said on local television: "This should not be made into a diplomatic issue. Anyone seriously aiming to become prime minister should go to the shrine every morning—I do so myself."
As summer nears, the LDP's conservative wing, along with Ishin and minor parties on the right, is expected to press Takaichi to show greater resolve on questions of history and national identity.
That leaves her with few palatable choices. A Yasukuni visit would reassure parts of her core supporters inside and out, but damage ties with two of Japan's most important neighbors. Staying away may preserve room for diplomacy, but risks disappointing those who await her to govern as she campaigned.
The Asia Group's Nishimura said Takaichi's latest decision "will likely not sit well with parties like Sanseito."
"Responses from conservatives seem muted for now, but whether that patience lasts is a different question," he added. "I suspect the pressure will grow as we get closer to the end of her term in office."
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
