What If 500 Drones Attacked Tokyo? Terra Drone CEO Warns Japan Isn't Ready

In modern warfare, inexpensive drones are reshaping the battlefield. Deployed in large numbers, they are increasingly capable of neutralizing sophisticated, high-cost weapons.

Few have witnessed this transformation more closely than Toru Tokushige, president of Japanese drone maker Terra Drone. The company recently acquired two Ukrainian drone manufacturers and now produces interceptor drones in the country.

Since last autumn, Tokushige has traveled to Ukraine 12 times.

In an interview with The Sankei Shimbun and Japan Forward, he said Japan must urgently strengthen its defenses against potential drone attacks by China, North Korea, and Russia.

How have drones changed modern warfare?

A typical attack now involves around 500 Shahed drones accompanied by about five missiles, striking multiple cities simultaneously, including Lviv and the capital, Kyiv.

To put that into a Japanese context, imagine Osaka, Tokyo, Nagoya, and Sendai all coming under attack at the same time.

Russia now launches approximately 8,000 Shahed drones into Ukraine every month. Although the Shahed was originally developed in Iran, Russia has acquired the production technology and now manufactures the drones domestically, enabling it to sustain attacks on this scale.

Are drones changing the economics of warfare?

If you keep intercepting large numbers of inexpensive drones with costly missiles, you'll quickly deplete your stockpile. Missiles cannot be mass-produced easily, so they should be reserved for situations where they are truly needed.

During the recent conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, interceptor missiles were repeatedly used to defend against incoming attacks, rapidly draining available inventories.

Our interceptor drone, the Terra A1, which I brought with me today, costs around ¥400,000 (about $2,700) per unit. Its frame can be produced in about 30 minutes using a 3D printer, after which components such as the motors are assembled.

At one workshop I visited in Ukraine, about 10 employees were producing roughly 1,000 drones a month. The largest factories manufacture as many as 300,000 drones per month.

These workshops are often located in apartment buildings or shopping malls. Because they are frequent targets, they relocate about every six months. To make that possible, the production equipment is mounted on wheeled platforms so it can be moved quickly.

How quickly is defense technology evolving?

When I first visited Ukraine last September, the Shahed-136 drones in use at the time flew at about 185 kilometers per hour. Less than a year later, new jet-powered models have emerged that can reach speeds of around 400 kilometers per hour.

Ukraine has also adapted quickly. It is now developing low-cost missiles designed specifically to intercept Shahed drones.

Conventional missiles typically take years to develop and cost anywhere from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of yen each. Ukraine's low-cost alternative, by contrast, costs about $20,000 per missile.

Because these missiles are intended solely to intercept Shahed drones, Ukraine has kept costs down by using commercially available computer components that would not normally be used in military equipment.

Why has Ukraine been able to innovate so quickly?

It's because its defense industry is driven by startups.

Take drones, for example. Manufacturers receive direct feedback from soldiers on the front lines about how their products perform, make improvements almost immediately, and send the updated drones back into the field. Individual brigades are also able to purchase directly from manufacturers.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion began, drone companies have sprung up across Ukraine. There are now around 1,000 manufacturers, including many small firms.

Our interceptor drones are remotely operated by soldiers, but we're also investing heavily in AI-powered autonomous drones. The goal is to improve accuracy and better defend against swarm attacks involving large numbers of drones.

At present, very few companies are capable of mass-producing autonomous drones, so manufacturers around the world are racing to develop the technology.

Why is this relevant to Japan?

The Shahed has a range of about 2,000 kilometers—far enough to reach Tokyo or Sapporo from China, North Korea, or Russia. China also possesses large numbers of suicide drones known as the Sunflower.

If a conflict were to break out, Japan should be prepared for the possibility that 500 drones and five missiles could strike multiple cities simultaneously.

Japan also needs to establish the capacity to mass-produce interceptor drones domestically. Given the conditions that would exist during a conflict, it should also develop the ability to manufacture key components at home.

Think of drones like automobiles. A car won't run if it's missing even a single wiring harness. Likewise, a drone won't fly without a battery.

Can Japan secure the necessary components domestically?

Japanese manufacturers are unlikely to invest unless they can count on a certain level of demand. The Defense Ministry is beginning to introduce interceptor drones, but future procurement contracts should require domestic production to encourage the use of Japanese-made components.

Our drones do not use any components made in China, but some parts are sourced from Taiwan. If a contingency were to occur in the Taiwan Strait, those components could also become unavailable. At present, we have no solution for that scenario.

Is Japan prepared for a potential crisis?

Some analysts have warned that a Taiwan contingency could occur as early as next year. That makes me wonder whether Japan will be ready in time. The country still lacks the capacity to mass-produce drones domestically.

Ideally, I would like the government to change its procurement policy now. A complete shift may not be possible immediately, so one option would be to gradually increase domestic content requirements—for example, by initially requiring that at least 65% of components be made in Japan.

Even if the government begins considering this next year, it would take several months to half a year just to finalize the bidding process for drone procurement. Selecting suppliers and deploying the drones would take another one to two years. By then, it would be too late. Breaking away from conventional thinking will require political leadership.

The first step is to build a reliable domestic supply chain for components. Japan should then establish production lines capable of assembling them.

If the system can produce 10,000 drones per month, expanding capacity to 100,000 would be relatively straightforward. The expertise gained through this process could then be shared across the industry.

However, getting domestic companies to consistently manufacture each component and maintain a stable supply would be extremely difficult. Japan's major defense contractors are unlikely to take on projects with this level of uncertainty.

For me, half of what I do is business, but the other half comes from a sense of urgency that Japan's national security is at risk. Given the realities of modern warfare, someone has to take on this challenge.

There is one more important point: Japan should also possess attack drones with a range of around 2,000 kilometers. If a crisis occurs, should Japan simply remain on the defensive? Missiles alone will not be enough.

Profile: Toru Tokushige

Toru Tokushige was born in Yamaguchi Prefecture in 1970. After graduating from the Faculty of Engineering at Kyushu University, he joined Mitsui Marine & Fire Insurance Co. (now part of the Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group).

In 2000, he earned an MBA from the Thunderbird School of Global Management in the United States and founded a venture support company there.

After returning to Japan, he established Terra Motors in 2010, which manufactures electric motorcycles and three-wheeled electric vehicles, followed by the founding of Terra Drone in 2016.

In June 2026, Terra Drone acquired two Ukrainian drone companies and has since accelerated the development and production of defense drones.

(Read the article in Japanese.)

Interview by Shigeyuki Mizuchi, The Sankei Shimbun