A house covered with a blue tarp in Yatsushiro, Kumamoto Prefecture on August 1. (©Sankei/Masahiro Sakai)
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Concerns are growing in earthquake-hit areas of Kumamoto Prefecture as Typhoon Dolphin is forecast to approach western Japan.
Depending on its track, the storm could trigger landslides on weakened slopes or send debris from damaged buildings flying, potentially disrupting recovery efforts that have only just begun.
A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Kumamoto Prefecture on July 28, causing widespread damage. As of August 3, the death toll stood at 38, including disaster-related deaths.
Experts warn that the region could face compound disasters, a situation in which multiple disasters, such as earthquakes, torrential rain or tsunamis, occur simultaneously or in quick succession. Similar events have occurred in the past when heavy rain struck before recovery efforts were complete.
They are urging residents to evacuate earlier than usual, as communities are already facing risks from extreme heat.
Fears of Further Damage
A woman in her 50s from Uki, Kumamoto Prefecture, said her own home escaped major damage, but roof tiles fell from her eldest son's nearby house. "The blue tarp covering the roof is only being held down by sandbags. Strong winds could blow it away," she said.
With help from her son's friend, the family had only just managed to complete temporary repairs.
"I'm extremely worried about the approaching typhoon," she said.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Typhoon Dolphin, currently classified as a very powerful storm, is moving west-northwest over waters near Minamitorishima.
Depending on its future track, it could bring heavy rain and other impacts to Kyushu, further threatening areas already struggling to recover from the earthquake.
Past Disasters
A recent example of a compound disaster was the torrential rain that struck the Noto Peninsula in September 2024. On September 21, a linear rainband developed over the northern part of the peninsula, which was still recovering from the powerful earthquake that struck on New Year's Day. Flooding damaged temporary housing for earthquake victims, worsening conditions for residents.
More than eight months had passed since the earthquake, but cracks in the ground remained, leaving slopes vulnerable to collapse. Large amounts of soil gave way, triggering a series of landslides. The heavy rains killed 21 people, including those whose deaths were classified as disaster-related.
The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake was also followed by heavy rain. About two months after the quake, a stalled seasonal rain front brought torrential downpours to affected areas, killing six people. Five of those deaths were included in the earthquake death toll because the victims were caught in landslides caused by rain falling on ground weakened by the quake.
Early Evacuation and Better Preparedness
In January, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism revised its plan for preparing for a potential Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake. Drawing on past earthquakes, the revised plan included measures to address compound disasters, such as strengthening emergency responses through the rapid assessment of damage using drones.
August and September are also peak months for typhoon landfalls, meaning residents in affected areas will need to remain vigilant not only against Typhoon Dolphin but also against future storms.
Takehiko Yamamura, director of the Tokyo-based Disaster Prevention System Research Institute, warned that a typhoon striking an earthquake-hit area could trigger landslides or flooding as rivers overflow.
He also noted the risk that debris from damaged buildings, including broken glass and roof tiles, could be blown around by strong winds.
"Residents should prepare to evacuate earlier than they normally would, keeping in mind the possibility that a compound disaster could worsen the damage," Yamamura said.
"Time is limited. The government should take the lead in providing as much support as possible, including dispatching specialized teams with the necessary expertise."
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Authors: Akari Horiguchi and Hiroki Tsuchiya, The Sankei Shimbun
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