Post-Kishida Showdown in the LDP: Who Will Be Kingmaker?

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election in September will decide who leads in the post-Kishida era. It is becoming a showdown between two former prime ministers, Yoshihide Suga and Taro Aso. 

Suga is a central figure among the non-mainstream members of the LDP. He opposes Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and is considering giving his support within the ranks of members outside mainstream factions. 

Aso is a key figure in the mainstream part of the party. He is expected to back Kishida and support faction members seeking the post.

Non-Mainstream and Anti-Faction: Suga

Suga and Aso have been dining with influential lawmakers and potential LDP presidential candidates. On July 1, Suga dined at a Chinese restaurant in Tokyo, hosted by former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba (currently no faction). Former Minister of Internal Affairs Ryota Takeda (Nikai faction), who opposes Aso, was also present. No decisions were made, but Suga praised Ishiba during an online program of Bungei Shunju DIGITAL on June 23. At that time he said, "It's good that [Ishiba] doesn't change his stance."

Suga also praised former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato (Motegi faction) as "a person who can do the job well." In addition, he commended former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (no faction) for his "passion for reform."

Suga criticizes PM Kishida for contributing to political distrust by not taking responsibility in the slush fund scandal. For the next LDP president, he seems to favor Shigeru Ishiba, Katsunobu Kato, and Shinjiro Koizumi, all non-mainstream and anti-faction candidates.

Key Figure of the Mainstream Faction: Aso

Aso, meanwhile, is PM Kishida's mentor and a key figure in the Kishida administration's mainstream faction. While other factions have decided to disband, the Aso faction is the only one that has chosen not to disband. This stance puts him at odds with Suga, who advocates a factionless approach.

While Aso has yet to declare his support in the presidential election, he leans towards Kishida. He has commended him, stating, "[The increase in] defense spending and [the enhancement of] counterattack capabilities are Kishida's achievements."

However, Aso also showed dissatisfaction with Kishida's handling of the revised Political Funds Law during the recent regular Diet session. This has caused tension between them. In an attempt to mend their relationship, Kishida arranged back-to-back dinners with Aso on June 18 and 25, a rare gesture that Aso accepted. One of Aso's close aides remarked, "I don't think he has completely forgiven him, but in the end, he might still choose to support Kishida."

If Kishida, struggling with low cabinet approval ratings, opts not to run, Aso will likely back party Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi. (Motegi headed the now-dissolved Motegi faction). Aso and Motegi have closely collaborated for nearly three years as LDP Vice President and Secretary-General under the Kishida administration.

Additionally, Taro Kono, the Digital Minister from the Aso faction has signaled that he intends to run. There is also speculation that "Aso might support him as the faction's candidate." Notably, Kono was endorsed by Suga in the last LDP leadership election. This time, however, Suga appears unwilling to support Kono as long as he remains aligned with the Aso faction.

Both Have Strong Support Bases

With all factions except the Aso faction disbanding, the upcoming presidential election is being dubbed a "factionless election." That also adds unpredictability to the race. A senior LDP lawmaker mentioned that "only Suga and Aso can create and mobilize large groups."

Suga draws support from a network of mid-level and younger unaffiliated lawmakers, formerly known as the Suga Group. Once it included dozens of members. Additionally, he is backed by three influential figures. They are former Policy Research Council Chairman Koichi Hagiuda (former Abe faction), Katsunobu Kato, and Ryota Takeda—collectively referred to as HKT. 

Hagiuda influences those who were members of the former Abe faction. Meanwhile, Takeda is prominent in the Nikai faction. Conversely, Aso has the potential to mobilize a considerable number from his 55-member faction if he opts to. 

A senior LDP official views the presidential election as a power struggle between Suga and Aso. He worries that "the public might perceive the LDP as only engaging in political maneuvering after the Diet sessions end."

RELATED:

• 'Post-Kishida' Search for the Next LDP Leaders Accelerates as Calls Rise for 'New Stars'
• 'Down With Kishida' Movement Within the LDP Remains Subdued
• Post-Kishida: In Need of Conservatism and Positive Financial Policies

(Read the related article in Japanese.)

Author: Issei Tanaka