What Suga is Looking For in the LDP's Post-Kishida Race

The September election for president of the ruling Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) is fast approaching. As it does, the words and actions of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga are being closely followed. Suga has been adopting a higher profile in his statements both within and outside the LDP. That includes an early de facto call for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to resign. 

He has also had dinner meetings with prominent Diet members. Several Diet members considered as possible candidates for LDP president are apparently eager to win Suga's support. Suga's decision on whom to support could well play a key role in the battle to see who will be the new "face of the LDP." 

Focus on Non-Mainstream Factions

"Things should heat up come July."

In June Suga shared this view with his inner circle regarding jockeying within the LDP in the lead-up to the presidential election. Suga also indicated he was keen to run for reelection as LDP president back in 2021. At that time, he was still prime minister. But in the end, he had to give up that notion. 

However, after the Kishida Cabinet was formed, he came to be considered a core member of the non-mainstream factions. Those are the LDP Diet members who have distanced themselves from Kishida. 

Suga himself became prime minister without being affiliated with any LDP faction. Furthermore, he has been a strong advocate of doing away with factions altogether. In fact, during the internal party debate in the wake of the scandal involving unreported income from faction events, Suga strongly opposed the continued existence of factions. He took the lead in advocating reform of the LDP.

In the aftermath of the unreported income scandal, the spotlight has returned to Suga. Five of the six factions within the LDP have either already disbanded or decided to disband. 

Evaluating Other Possible Successors to Kishida

Meanwhile, he has been actively holding dinner meetings with one LDP lawmaker after the next. For example, on June 6 he was seen in the company of Katsunobu Kato and Shinjiro Koizumi. The two, as chief cabinet secretary and environment minister respectively, had supported Suga as members of his Cabinet. Then, on June 19 he dined with LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi. That was followed on July 1 by dinner with former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba. 

Ishiba is apparently preparing to throw his hat in the ring. Various party members also see Kato, Koizumi and Motegi as likely strong candidates. However, none has spelled out his intentions regarding the race for the party presidency. Meanwhile, some observers believe each is likely to base his final decision on whether he can win Suga's support.

Then there is Minister for Digital Transformation Taro Kono, who like Suga has his political base in Kanagawa Prefecture.

Suga revealed his evaluations of these five possible leaders for the "post-Kishida" era during an Internet interview on June 23. 

Katsunobu Kato

Regarding Kato, he explained: "He is someone who you know will get the job done right and can be trusted. That is why I made him Chief Cabinet Secretary (in the Suga Cabinet.)" 

Shinjiro Koizumi

He has reportedly had his eye on Koziumi for some time. When asked about Koizumi's potential as a future leader, Suga emphasized, "I think many people recognize that fact." He added, "He is a person who can get the job done and he has a considerable desire for reform."

Toshimitsu Motegi

Suga also praised Motegi, for "managing party affairs well amidst very trying conditions." 

Shigeru Ishiba

As for Ishiba, he said: "He is someone you can count on. I like how he sticks to his positions no matter what happens." 

Taro Kono

Kono is close to Suga and the former PM threw his support behind Kono in the last party presidential election. To his inner circle, Kono has expressed interest in making another run for the top spot in the next presidential race. He would obviously hope for Suga's support this time as well. 

Regarding Kono, Suga said, "He has the potential to excel. He's a possibility (to become prime minister)."

Suga would not say whom among these five  he favors, claiming, "I haven't made my mind up yet." He would only say that his criteria for finding a leader are: "He has to be the kind of person who grasps the essence and has insight."

Prime Minister Must Accept Responsibility

Meanwhile, regarding the unreported income scandal, Suga has been intensifying his criticism of how Kishida has dealt with the problem. During the program, he admitted he thought the prime minister is one reason for the current pervasive distrust of politics. Touching on why he thinks Kishida should take responsibility, he issued a de facto call for him to resign as prime minister.

Likewise, in an issue of the monthly opinion magazine Hanada, Suga was quoted as saying, "The prime minister should have penalized himself to take responsibility for the affair."

Suga has told people around him, "I just said what was obvious." But within the LDP there are some people who are saying that Suga's statements are dangerous because they give an impression of internal strife. That, they say, could cause the LDP to lose supporters.

Kishida's Defense

In the July 1 issue of an LDP newsletter, Hajime Funada came to Kishida's defense. He is the chairperson of the LDP General Assembly of Party Members of the House of Representatives. Funada lamented that the appearance of intraparty strife is "unseemly." Additionally, he declared that "criticism that [Kishida] has not accepted responsibility is off the mark."

There is a possibility that if support for Kishida grows among LDP Diet members, Suga could lose some of his pull. But at least up to now, that does not appear to be happening. In fact, a senior party official expressed understanding of Suga's position, saying, "After all, these statements are coming from someone with experience as prime minister." 

If the approval rating for the Kishida Cabinet continues to languish in the days to come, Suga's influence may rise further. At the same time, his statements could become even more biting. 

Only about three months are remaining before the new LDP president is chosen. In that time, which candidate will manage to win Suga's support? The behind-the-scenes maneuvering in Japan's ruling party is likely to intensify in the days to come. 

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• 'Post-Kishida' Search for the Next LDP Leaders Accelerates as Calls Rise for 'New Stars'
  
  

(Read the report in Japanese.)

Author: Nobuhiro Imanaka