Prime Minister Ishiba shakes hands with Chinese Premier Li in Vientiane, Laos on October 10. (Pool photo via Kyodo News)
On October 10, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos. He held several meetings on the sidelines of the summit, including one with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. It seems that he was trying to make his presence known on his first overseas trip since taking office. Meanwhile, it was also clear that Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) chances in the Lower House election were very much on his mind.
Campaigning in the general election began shortly after his return, on October 15. He scheduled voting for October 27.
Squeezing Information Out of a Stone
In his meeting with Li, Ishiba expressed serious concerns about China's intensifying military activities around Japan. He furthermore asked for an explanation of the murder of a Japanese boy in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, earlier in September.
Meanwhile, at home there was much criticism both within and outside the party about his pre-departure announcement of "double punishment" and withholding official endorsement for former Abe faction lawmakers. Ishiba's decision to allow "no proportional representation overlap" with LDP candidates running on individual ballots also sparked anger.
The prime minister claims these measures address the faction political funds scandal. However, he is accused of plotting "the great Reiwa purge" to "crush the Abe faction." Independent journalist Yukihiro Hasegawa reports.
A Cloudy Horizon
Dark clouds are already gathering over the horizon of the Ishiba administration.
Indeed, it would be no surprise if the "remove Ishiba" movement began within the LDP even before the October 27 Lower House election. If the LDP loses the election, the movement to overthrow the Cabinet will likely accelerate even further.
Will the rebellion begin in the regions?
The Yomiuri Shimbun published an article on October 7, giving a premonition of what's to come. It noted that the majority of the lawmakers who had not submitted their income and expenditure reports as required by the Political Funds Control Act were supported by the party in their regions. The prefectural federations had already applied to LDP headquarters for official endorsement in the Lower House election," Yomiuri reported.
Prime Minister Ishiba initially designated six former Abe faction members for punishment. They were denied official LDP candidate status. Then, on October 9, he expanded that to twelve. They include former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura and former Policy Research Council Chairman Koichi Hagiuda.
Ishiba additionally expressed his intention to punish approximately 40 or so former faction members who were not listed earlier. Moreover, he would not allow those 40 or so members to run as candidates in both individual and proportional representation districts. This decision must have come as quite a surprise to the prefectural federations.
A Basis for Rebellion?
In fact, many prefectural federations were already preparing for the election. They would have assumed that candidates would not only be officially endorsed but also run as usual on both individual and proportional representation ballots. Instead, Prime Minister Ishiba overturned the will of those local areas.
Surely Ishiba must have understood this would anger the local prefectural federations. Many think that politics is something that politicians in Nagatacho do. However, it goes without saying that in a democracy, it is local party members and supporters who support each politician.
In normal times, politics move according to the judgment of Diet members, but this is clearly a turbulent time. Therefore, Diet members have no choice but to respond to the will of their local areas. Meanwhile, there is a good chance that regional anger could lead to full-scale rebellion against the Ishiba administration.
Is it possible that Ishiba's order of "no official endorsement" for punished candidates and "no multiple candidacies in proportional representation districts" for others could have a positive effect on the Lower House election? Could it end up helping Ishiba?
That seems improbable. It is more plausible that, instead of generating praise for Ishiba's decision, it will boost his critics. In the end, the decision's greater effect seems likely to be one of reducing seats.
233 Seats Needed to Govern
From the beginning, the LDP was mired in a political funds scandal. Along with it, it faced the popular headwind of "a no-good LDP." Then, the Ishiba administration, which replaced the Fumio Kishida administration, was labeled "no-good Ishiba" for repeatedly shelving campaign promises. Combined, they made up a triple-failure spree.
Would people say, "Well done!" Because the administration denied official endorsement to a problematic candidate? Or would they say, "Okay, I'll vote for you!" because candidates were forbidden to stand in both individual and proportional representation situations? I doubt it. Even under the best of circumstances, it would just turn a three-point failure into a two-point failure.
Instead, as candidates struggle in their campaigns and proportional representation is no longer an option, the LDP will likely lose seats overall. It needs a majority, at least 233 seats, to maintain control of the government. Yet, under the current scenario, it could become difficult for the LDP to maintain a coalition government, even with its Komeito partner at its side.
Eyes On Nishimura and Seko
If neither the ruling nor opposition parties secure a majority on their own, the coalition combination game will begin. That's when it becomes interesting. Pay close attention to the movements of Nishimura and others who are running as independents.
Another one to follow is the former LDP secretary-general in the House of Councillors, Hiroshige Seko. He also left the LDP to become an independent.
If they win, would they easily return to the LDP? I don't think so. Should they consider doing so, it might be in exchange for Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation. This may seem far fetched. However, if the Ishiba administration loses the Lower House in the election and puts the LDP on the verge of losing power, it is surely a possible scenario.
The political situation in Japan has entered a phase where uncertainty is truly prevalent.
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(Read the column in Japanese.)
Author: Yukihiro Hasegawa
Journalist Yukihiro Hasegawa is known for his commentary on issues of politics, economics, diplomacy, and security, based on original research. Hasegawa has also held public positions, including as a member of the government's Regulatory Reform Council. He won the Yamamoto Shichihei Award for his book "The True Nature of Japan: Politicians, Bureaucrats, and the Media - Who are the Real Power Holders?" (Kodansha). His program with Yoichi Takahashi is currently streaming on YouTube.
