Defense of Okinawa Depends On the Self-Determination of Japan

Chinese military activities have become increasingly active in the vicinity of Okinawa Prefecture. For example, take the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning. In September for the first time, it sailed south from the waters northwest of the Senkaku Islands through territorial waters between Yonaguni Island, the westernmost point of Japan, and Iriomote Island. 

An aircraft carrier is a vessel equipped with fighter jets that can attack other countries. Therefore, its passage through Japan's contiguous zone should be viewed as a blatant threat to the people of Okinawa Prefecture. Moreover, it can be viewed as a particular threat to those living in the Yaeyama Island chain close to Taiwan.

Aggressive Military Moves

A Chinese Y-9 military intelligence-gathering aircraft had already violated Japanese airspace in August. That took place off the coast of the Danjo Islands in Nagasaki Prefecture. It was the first time a Chinese military plane had done so. 

Shortly before that, the same type of intelligence-gathering aircraft was also spotted flying between the main island of Okinawa and Miyakojima. (The Miyakojima island group is situated between the big island of Okinawa and the Yaeyama Islands.) 

Furthermore, Chinese ships are constantly lingering around the Senkaku Islands. Unfortunately, their intrusions into Japanese territorial waters have become a common occurrence. So too has their continued interference with the operations of Japanese fishing boats.

Viewing this series of actions in their entirety, there can be no doubt that China is intent on restraining Japan with a view to a future "invasion of Taiwan."

Moreover, the scope of Chinese military activity is not limited to Taiwan. Already it clearly includes the Senkaku Islands and the Yaeyama island chain as a whole. In the Yaeyama Islands, shelter building and evacuation planning are in full swing in preparation for a possible emergency. Local anxiety is only growing. 

Leadership Tests

Why is China intensifying its provocative actions at this time?

It is certainly no coincidence that we have just had the election for president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Soon thereafter, we have a general election in Japan, and the United States presidential election across the Pacific is also relevant. 

Could it be that the Chinese leadership wants to test how the US candidates would respond if their ally is in a pinch? They could take a look at Japanese and American media reports and the comments made by the two candidates at their only debate. Regrettably, there is no evidence that either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump has made any kind of statement condemning China for its attempts to intimidate Japan.

For starters, the election campaign for US president has been a low-class, insult-hurling contest. Both sides have only mentioned China occasionally, and only in the context of economic and trade rivalries.

Evidence of Threat Awareness

Neither of the two candidates seems inclined to take seriously the perilous situations developing around Taiwan. Likewise, they seemed unaware of the threats to allies in the South China Sea and along the periphery of Okinawa.

If Trump is elected president, we cannot rule out the possibility that he will make an unexpected "deal" with China. Could that sacrifice Okinawa and Taiwan? 

As for Harris, she is an accidental candidate who lacks competency. And if you analyze Joe Biden's administration, you can easily identify her pattern of behavior. Seasoned dictators like China's Xi Jinping or Russia's Vladimir Putin likely would have no problem handling her. 

Xi's Calculations

Viewing the abysmal caliber of the US presidential candidates, Xi must be grinning. He's probably thinking, "Now is my chance to stir up trouble over Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands." 

No matter who becomes America's next leader, chaos in the US and the crisis facing Okinawa are sure to deepen. Total reliance by Japan on the United States for its security has reached its limits. Japan must once again adopt the stance that a "nation is responsible for its own security." 

We need to build a defense system strong enough so that regardless of who may be the US president, no foreign power will dare lay a finger on Okinawa.

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(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Makoto Nakashinjo