Chinese President Xi Jinping inspects the PLA Rocket Force brigade base that oversees the country's nuclear missile forces on October 17. (©Xinhua via Kyodo)
The global gaze is intensely focused on the upcoming United States presidential election. There is intrigue from all corners of the world. Revelations from insiders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) suggest that there is a prevailing belief within its ranks that Donald Trump will secure the presidency in the November 2024 election.
In anticipation of this outcome, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has devised a strategic document proposing three distinct response measures.
The Strategic Think Tank
This thought-provoking report was meticulously prepared by a specialized Chinese military think tank, bringing together the intellectual prowess of experts from the PLA Joint Staff Department, the National Defense University, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Submitted in September, this document was directly communicated to the Central Military Commission and Xi Jinping himself. It explores the potential geopolitical transformations that could ensue should Trump win.
After reading it, Xi Jinping ordered this report to be disseminated to the group armies and provincial military districts.
From this, one can infer that the CCP leadership essentially believes Trump will win the 2024 US election, and they must prepare for the reality of Trump becoming the US President once more.
This is also why recently, at the CCP's so-called National Day celebration banquet on October 1, Xi Jinping talked about the need to prepare for facing fierce challenges.
Anticipated Geopolitical Shifts
The military think tank forecasts that Trump's reelection would usher in substantial shifts in global politics. It projects the initial focus would be on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Under Trump's influence, it suggests, the US might encourage Ukraine to accept a peace agreement involving territorial concessions in exchange for the cessation of hostilities. This could be driven by a significant reduction in US support.
US-Russia Dynamics
Following the conclusion of the conflict, a notable realignment in US-Russia relations could occur, potentially moving from opposition to partnership. It suggests this reflects past Russian desires for integration with Europe and NATO.
Victory for the United States and the United Kingdom
The Chinese military think tank's report suggests that the breakdown of Russia's relations with the West is a victory for US and British international diplomacy. From the Obama era to the Biden era, the Democratic governments have seized historical opportunities to comprehensively weaken Russia. Russia was reduced to a third-rate country, and completely dismissed from the club of Great Powers.
Global Ripple Effects
Such a realignment could diminish the influence of Iran and the Axis of Resistance in the Middle East. This would result in enhancing the strategic position of Israel, a staunch US ally, thereby enabling the US to pivot its military focus towards the Asia-Pacific, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Unfavorable Changes Need Time to Happen
The Chinese military think tank's report predicts that if relations between the US and Russia improve after Trump becomes the US president again, it would pose significant obstacles for the CCP in the Taiwan issue. Potentially, this could place China in a strategically unfavorable position. Time will not be a friend to the CCP regarding Taiwan, it suggests.
However, the Chinese military's report believes that even if Trump wins, even if he successfully pushes for ending the Russia-Ukraine war, and even if US-Russia relations improve and gradually develop into a strategic partnership, all these major shifts in international geopolitics will require time. They cannot happen overnight.
Therefore, the 2025-2027 window period set by CCP for resolving the Taiwan issue remains correct and effective. However, it says, every effort should be made to seize this opportunity.
CCP's Military Recommendations
In light of these potential shifts, the document outlines three strategic recommendations:
1. Enhancing Support for Russia
The PLA advises intensifying military and political support for Russia. This includes covertly aiding the deployment of North Korean special forces in areas like Kursk. Its purpose is to gain strategic advantages before any shift in US policy. The higher Russia's demands, the harder it will be to reach a ceasefire agreement.
2. Middle Eastern Strategy
The think tank suggests ramping up support for the Axis of Resistance to keep American military resources tied up in the Middle East. This would thereby limit America's capability to pivot to other fronts.
3. Preparation for Taiwan
The report urges the acceleration of military, economic, and political readiness for potential operations against Taiwan. It aims to utilize the strategic window from 2025 to 2027, which is considered optimal for "addressing the Taiwan issue." Otherwise, "resolving the Taiwan issue" would become extremely disadvantageous.
Insights from Experts
The above information was disclosed by Yuan Hongbing, a former professor at Peking University, in his latest program.
While the military think tank's report was submitted in September, in October, we observed that North Korean soldiers had indeed gone to Russia. In this context, I believe this information is highly credible.
Kevin Rudd, the former Australian Prime Minister, looks at the issue from another perspective in his insightful publication "On Xi Jinping: How Xi's Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World." He warns of the escalated risk of conflict under Xi's stewardship, which resonates with the military's strategic preparations. Rudd believes that under Xi Jinping's ideological influence, the threat the CCP poses to the global system has peaked during Xi's tenure. At the same time, the risk of war over Taiwan is at its highest during Xi's era.
Conclusion
The CCP strategically anticipates and is readying itself for a potential Trump presidency. This posture highlights a pivotal moment in international relations, potentially intensifying tensions, especially over Taiwan. These developments could solidify the CCP's strategic stance. However, they could also catalyze internal and external pressures, leading to unforeseen outcomes.
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Author: Jennifer Zeng
Find articles by Jennifer Zeng on JAPAN Forward. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World.
