INTERVIEW | Tae Yong-ho on North Korea, Unification, and Trump

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Tensions are high on the Korean Peninsula. Troops from North Korea are reportedly fighting alongside Russian forces in support of Moscow's war against Ukraine. Adding to the strain, on October 31, Pyongyang announced the launch of what it claims is a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile. Some analysts suggest that Russian technology may have been involved.

The timing is no coincidence. Earlier this year, Pyongyang abandoned its long-held unification goals and formally parted ways with South Korea in October. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's return to the White House and South Korea's domestic turmoil add unpredictable factors to an already volatile regional situation.

In this exclusive interview, JAPAN Forward sat down with Secretary General Tae Yong-ho to discuss the evolving geopolitics of the Korean Peninsula. A former elite diplomat for North Korea, Tae defected to the South in 2016 with his family. Prior to his appointment as Secretary General of the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, Tae was a lawmaker for South Korea's ruling People Power Party.  

Yoon's Vision for Unification

What is the PUAC, and what are its key functions?

The Peaceful Unification Advisory Council (PUAC) is an institution established under our constitution to support South Korea's unification efforts. Its primary role is to gather and analyze public opinion on unification, report its findings to the President, and promote related government policies. With over 20,000 advisors operating in 136 countries, the PUAC works globally to achieve this shared goal.

What was the purpose of your recent trip to the US?

Our institution recently formed a special committee on "global strategy" to collaborate with experts worldwide on unification policy. As part of this initiative, I recently visited Washington, where I engaged with local politicians, scholars, and experts on Korean affairs. During my visit, I also delivered lectures on the internal changes taking place in North Korea and President Yoon Suk-yeol's 8.15 Unification Doctrine, unveiled in August. 

Tell us more about the 8.15 Unification Doctrine.

President Yoon's unification policy introduces several fresh objectives, starting with a clear vision for reuniting Korea. While both North and South Korea have historically expressed a desire for unification, their prospective goal has starkly differed. 

Previous South Korean presidents avoided presenting a detailed vision to maintain dialogue with the North and to prevent jeopardizing negotiations. In contrast, President Yoon has explicitly emphasized that reunification must lead to a nation that guarantees the freedom and security of all its people.

His policy also represents a fundamental shift in the approach to unification. Previous administrations sought to normalize relations with the North Korean regime via dialogue and cooperation. However, the regime consistently resisted these efforts. President Yoon, therefore, shifted the focus to engaging directly with the North Korean people rather than the recalcitrant government. 

Notably, the Doctrine omits any direct mention of North Korea's denuclearization. Instead, the Yoon administration is focused on shaping the perceptions of the North Korean people and improving their human rights conditions. The belief is that these efforts will eventually address security and nuclear challenges on the Korean Peninsula. 

While some critics label this approach "reunification by absorption," that characterization is inaccurate. What we advocate is empowering the North Korean people to chart their own future. 

How is this policy more desirable than others?

This approach is deeply rooted in our ethnic identity and historical experience. South Korea's modern history includes periods under authoritarian regimes that spearheaded economic development and industrialization through top-down governance. However, as the country reached a certain level of progress, the people began advocating for liberal democracy through a bottom-up movement. 

President Yoon believes that, just as South Korea's path to democratization was driven by its people, the unification process with North Korea must also be rooted in grassroots efforts. This bottom-up approach, he believes, will pave the way for a more stable and enduring integration between the two Koreas.

North Korea's External Collaborations

North Korea has declared a hostile two-state stance. Will President Yoon's doctrine work?

In South Korea, the new unification doctrine is widely discussed in the media, accompanied by interviews, policy debates, and national discourse. In contrast, such discussions are virtually nonexistent in North Korea. Aside from Kim Jong Un's utterance of Korea as a hostile two-state situation, there is no indication such an idea is gaining traction among the general populace. 

This is reflected in the reaction of Japan's pro-North organization, Chosen Soren (aka Cho Chong Ryun). North Korean authorities have faced considerable backlash from the group for abandoning reunification and declaring two hostile states. 

If the "two-state theory" had gained momentum in North Korea and outside, it would likely have garnered broader support. Despite regularly reading the Rodong Sinmun (North Korea's official newspaper), I have not found a single editorial or article promoting this idea.

Recent high-level defections from North Korea also signal a shift in sentiment. Many North Koreans now dream of a unified Korea where they can live prosperously like South Koreans. North Korea's current trajectory mirrors that of East Germany. After amending its constitution in 1974 to formalize the division, East Germany saw the Berlin Wall fall just 15 years later, in 1989. I believe a similar fate is inevitable for North Korea.

You mentioned that North Korea is undergoing a notable transformation.

Over the past 20 years, market economies have taken root in North Korea. The collapse of the state-run rationing system has led to the establishment of 400 marketplaces across the country. Some 70% of North Koreans now rely on the capitalist market economy to support themselves. 

Second, the younger generation in the North has become deeply immersed in South Korean movies and cultural content. Although the Kim regime has implemented draconian laws to crack down on this influence, it has already become ingrained in North Korea's social fabric.

Effect of Donald Trump as US President Again

Will Donald Trump strike another deal with Kim Jong Un?

Mr Trump will likely attempt to negotiate with Kim Jong Un, but a deal is unlikely. What Kim seeks is an official recognition of North Korea's nuclear status from Washington. Yet, if Mr Trump were to concede to this demand, it would destabilize the global NPT framework. 

Ultimately, the US will have no choice but to push for North Korea's denuclearization. Kim, of course, is unlikely to give up a weapon he sees as tantamount to his regime's survival.

Trump once claimed he could settle the Ukraine war in 24 hours. Do you think that is possible?

It's highly improbable. Mr Trump has suggested that if the Ukrainian president doesn't listen to him, he will cut off all military aid. But doing so would mean the US would abandon a significant international agreement, notably the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. 

In exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons, the US and other countries promised to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity from external threats. Ukraine has already lost nearly 20% of its land since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022.

If Washington were to tell Kyiv to accept the current circumstance and agree to a ceasefire, it might end the conflict there. Behind Ukraine, however, is Eastern Europe, and behind Eastern Europe is Western Europe. All of whom are aligned with the US in a collective security pact. Such a move by Washington would severely damage America's global standing and leadership credibility.

That said, the President-elect's comments seem more like political rhetoric aimed at pressuring President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Once in office, the Trump administration will likely pursue a more balanced and reasonable approach to the situation.

Should South Korea Have Nuclear Weapons?

Some in South Korea's ruling party advocate for developing nuclear weapons or latency capabilities in response to Pyongyang's provocations.

There is a growing demand for nuclear armament within parts of the People Power Party and the South Korean public. However, much depends on the actions of the incoming Trump administration. Under President Joe Biden, American nuclear deterrence was firm. The Camp David Principles reassured South Korean security, and US nuclear assets were periodically deployed to the Peninsula. 

With Mr Trump's return, many uncertainties remain. However, if Mr Trump were to issue a strong warning to North Korea that any use of nuclear weapons would lead to the regime's end, support for nuclear armament would likely decrease. 

Additionally, if Mr Trump worked with Seoul to develop a more robust nuclear deterrence plan, this could further reduce support for nuclear armament.

Will Trump preserve the security architecture built by Biden's administration?

Upon taking office, I believe the President-elect will likely adhere to more traditional, established policy lines. South Korea, Japan, and the US have already solidified the Camp David Principles. It is, therefore, unlikely that Mr Trump will easily dismantle them, even if attempted.

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Author: Kenji Yoshida

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