US President-elect Donald Trump has essentially begun high-level diplomacy (©AP via Kyodo).
On December 12, American magazine TIME announced President-elect Donald Trump as its annual Person of the Year. Even before his inauguration in January 2025, the President-elect has intensified his diplomatic efforts. He has already held meetings with several world leaders, aiming for an end to the war triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, however, has yet to secure an early meeting with Trump.
Meanwhile, Akie Abe dined with Mr Trump at his Florida home in the United States on Sunday, December 15. The widow of his good friend from his first administration, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, traveled at the President-elect's invitation.
A day later, the President-elect continued to renew his friendships with Japan, holding a joint press conference with Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son. The two had known each other since Trump's first presidential administration when Son offered to work with him to create jobs in the US.
Ishiba, known for frequently criticizing Abe during his administration, finds himself in a precarious position. Under his leadership, Japan now faces a potential crisis.
The Cold Shoulder
On December 7, Mr Trump attended a celebration in Paris marking the reconstruction of Notre-Dame Cathedral. There, he met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ishiba's continued exclusion from Trump's diplomatic engagements could not be more apparent.
Failing to meet with the president-elect of Japan's most crucial ally casts doubt on Ishiba's ability to secure Japan's future.
In November, Ishiba sought a meeting with Mr Trump during a stopover in the US while returning from South America. However, that did not materialize. At the time, his team cited the Logan Act, which prohibits meetings between a president-elect and foreign leaders as the reason.
However, Trump has met with others, including Argentine President Javier Milei, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Clearly, the Logan Act was merely an excuse.
Why No Meeting?
Why the President-elect did not agree to a meeting with Ishiba is obvious. There was simply no value in doing so. Mr Trump's meeting in Paris with Macron and Zelenskyy was to explore potential ceasefire options for Ukraine. Zelenskyy called the discussions productive and emphasized the need for just peace. He later emphasized diplomatic solutions, including the potential for foreign military oversight of a ceasefire before Ukraine's NATO accession. His talks with Mr Trump clearly influenced this idea.
Macron has strongly advocated for the continued support of Ukraine. He has also maintained a distance from Mr Trump, who is exploring a ceasefire. Even so, the two held talks because Macron was considered a meaningful counterpart. Simply put, Trump meets people who are worth his time, and Ishiba was not among them.
It is well-known that Ishiba's policy agenda, such as an Asia-Pacific NATO, would require Japan to amend its constitution. Furthermore, Mr Trump values loyalty, and he is aware that Ishiba was a political rival of his ally, former Prime Minister Abe.
A Catalyst for Chinese Aggression
With the upcoming 2025 budget expected to pass by the end of March, speculation about efforts to unseat Ishiba is growing. Mr Trump's apparent lack of interest in meeting Ishiba could perpetuate this diplomatic isolation, endangering Japan's position.
China views the strained Japan-US relationship as an opportunity to intensify pressure. It has reinstated short-term visa exemptions for Japanese citizens, using it as a diplomatic carrot. At the same time, it has deployed a fleet of over 100 warships near Taiwan for military drills. This dual strategy likely aims to exploit any rift between Japan and the US.
Effectively abandoned by Trump, the Ishiba administration has become a catalyst for Chinese aggression. Some have speculated that the administration may have sent Akie Abe to Trump's Florida estate to facilitate a meeting. If true, it highlights Ishiba's predicament, having to turn to a political rival's wife for assistance.
As long as the Ishiba administration remains in power, the risk of a Taiwan contingency only grows. Extra vigilance is needed to prevent a Japan contingency.
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(Read the article in Japanese).
Author: Yukihiro Hasegawa
