M1A2C (SEP v.3) Abrams tanks are available for training at Fort Hood, Texas, July 21, 2020. (Courtesy of the US Army)
Taiwan's requirement for a combat-hardened tank to take on the Chinese ground forces has been met by the outgoing Joe Biden administration. Washington has provided Taiwan with the long-awaited first batch of M1A2 Abrams Main Battle Tanks (MBTs).
Taiwan is slated to receive 42 more in 2025 and the remaining 28 in 2026. Prior to this, dozens of army instructors from Taiwan attended equipment-related training in the United States. The second phase of this training is likely scheduled for February 2025.
Need for Ground-based Firepower
US arms sales to Taiwan have long been a sticking point in Sino-US ties. Delivery of these tanks shall only further conflagrate China. Beijing went on a rant against the US recently for approving a potential $385 million USD military aid package for Taiwan. This package includes the possible sale of spare parts for F-16 aircraft and Active Electronically Scanned Array Radars.
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) claims the Abrams may outperform the Chinese PLA's Type 99 Main Battle Tank (MBT). It offers greater mobility, protection, and firepower. Furthermore, its ability to fire from mountaintops could be crucial in deterring an invasion from mainland China. That said, the tank's performance is still a subject of debate, especially following its poor reappraisal in the Ukraine war. Concerns continue to loom large over its effectiveness.
The intensified build-up for a potential cross-strait conflict between Beijing and Taipei is expected to focus on the sea and air. However, Taiwan still requires critical ground-based firepower to counter incoming Chinese tanks as part of any invasion launched by Xi Jinping.
China's Escalating Coercion
Washington's delivery of the Abrams MBT comes at a time when Beijing has ramped up its military activities surrounding Taiwan.
In May and October, the PLA conducted Joint Sword-2024A and Joint Sword-2024B military drills involving multi-service maneuvers in the sea and air spaces around Taiwan. These exercises included operations by the aircraft carrier Liaoning and supporting ships east of Taiwan. They also featured a circumnavigation of the island by PRC Coast Guard vessels.
Many speculate that a third iteration of these drills is in the offing in the next few months. This undoubtedly appears to be Beijing's well-strategized tool of continuing political warfare through means of military stealth and territorial encroachment.
China's military maneuvers reflect the PRC's escalating coercive pressure on Taiwan. These actions include the aircraft carrier group training deployments by the PLA Navy in recent years.
A key element in understanding the PLA's military exercises lies in the PRC leadership's decision to wage political warfare. PLA naval and aviation activities are steadily encroaching, gradually creeping closer in measured stages. Through these tactics, Beijing intends to intimidate Taiwan's population, especially its political leadership under President Lai Ching-te.
Beijing has come down heavily on the US for hosting President Lai on his visit to US territories in the Pacific. His itinerary included Guam and Hawaii as part of his Pacific tour.
A Continuation of Strategic Policy
President Biden's decision follows President George W Bush's declaration in the waning days of his presidency in October 2008. Bush, too, notified Congress days before leaving office that he had approved selling defensive weapon systems worth a staggering $6.9 billion to Taiwan.
Bush's decision aimed to check China from eroding the effective sovereignty that Taiwan's government exercises over its territory. Bush's decision was also in reaction to China's adoption of the 2005 Anti-Secession Law. Under this law, Beijing legalized "non-peaceful means […] to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity" in the event that "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted."
As the PLA prepares for a potential future blockade or any other major military scenario regarding Taiwan, concerns loom large. There are questions about whether Taipei's leadership would find comprehensive power through the US to counter or block China's aggressive posturing and push for a new era in cross-strait relations.
Taiwan has incessantly featured as a sticking point in Sino-US relations. The latest tanks-related arms deal and other US weapons sales ensure that the region's security balance across the median line of the Taiwan Strait hangs by a thread.
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Author: Dr Monika Chansoria
