Okinawa, It's Still Important and Often Misunderstood

Okinawa isn't in the news so much these days. Chinese efforts to grab Philippine territory and smother Taiwan get the most attention.

That doesn't mean Okinawa is any less important.

An American acquaintance who writes about foreign affairs turned his attention to Okinawa recently. He did some homework and then sent along a few questions. Some are good ones, but some reflect common misunderstandings of Okinawa that are even perpetrated by certain Okinawan officials and activists.

Here's my attempt to set him straight.

Geostrategic Importance

What is Okinawa's current importance in terms of potential Chinese aggression, and what role does it play geopolitically?

Okinawa (and other islands that are part of the prefecture) are strategic geography. They form part of the First Island Chain that blocks the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA)'s easy access to the Pacific Ocean.

Similarly, bases on and in Okinawa are useful for the Americans and the Japanese conducting both defensive and offensive military operations. Those range from intelligence gathering and targeting to kinetic warfare.

What impact could a Chinese invasion of Taiwan have on Okinawa?

United States and Japanese bases on Okinawa and elsewhere in the Ryukyus would be essential for operations to defend Taiwan. However, they are also likely PLA targets if the Chinese attack Taiwan.

A related question is, what would a Chinese assault on Taiwan do to all of Japan? If successful, it would allow the PRC to isolate and dominate Japan. And it would rattle and perhaps destroy the Japan-US defense relationship on which the broader political relationship is based.

US Bases on Okinawa

*Reclamation work for the relocation of the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma continues in Oura Bay off the coast of Henoko, Nago City, in Okinawa, August, 2024.*

How do Okinawans regard the bases in general, and the expansion of the US military base at Henoko?

It depends on which Okinawans you ask. Governor Denny Tamaki will claim that "all" Okinawans oppose the bases. That is of course untrue. Otherwise, only "anti-base" candidates would win Okinawa elections. They don't. The "pro-base" candidates are doing rather well recently.

Also, if Tamaki's claim was true, there would be widespread and constant protests. There are not and have not been for decades.

When considering the "protesters," most are older people and many are from outside Okinawa. Younger Okinawans mostly just want to get on with life and they worry about jobs, taking care of children, and taking care of elderly parents. The bases are, by and large, just part of the woodwork.

The residents of Henoko, the village where the new US Marine air facility is being built mostly support the base. This gets little publicity.

Remember that in other parts of Okinawa Prefecture – say, farther down the chain – there is also considerable support for the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) and even the US military presence – to protect from China. In some areas, Japanese fishermen can no longer access traditional fishing grounds because of harassment from the China Coast Guard and Chinese fishing and maritime militia boats. Locals want the government to do something – and dispatch the JSDF to protect them.

Why has the withdrawal, especially partial withdrawal, of the US military never been realized?

The American forces have in fact withdrawn and there are far fewer compared to 40-50 years ago. Also, more are leaving – with the move of thousands of Marines to Guam just getting underway. The number of US military facilities on Okinawa has shrunk, too. And the training activities US forces can conduct are similarly constrained. Indeed, to train to defend Japan, the US forces often have to leave Japan.

But at the end of the day, Japan's central government wants the Americans in Okinawa to defend Japan. Nevertheless, the central government has too often declined to adequately support the Americans publicly. It prefers to use US forces as a buffer to absorb Okinawan complaints.

Protecting the Place and the People

*US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel visited Yonaguni Island and Mayor Itokazu celebrate good relations in May 2024. (Courtesy of USAmbJapan X)*

Do local residents feel they are receiving adequate support from the Tokyo government?

Once again, it depends on which local residents you talk to. Some do. Some don't. Even guys like Governor Tamaki and the "anti-base" opposition know that they are handsomely compensated for hosting the bases. And all they have to do is "complain."

The central government provides somewhere between $1-3 billion USD a year in direct support payments alone and has for many years. That's a lot of money for a small population. You'd think the island of Okinawa would be paved in gold.

One fairly wonders, what happened to all the money? The Okinawan government might not want auditors to come to ask. More than a few Diet members in Tokyo might feel the same way.

Why does it seem that tensions are rising on the island?

They aren't rising. Foreign reporters often – if not always – tend to misread the situation on Okinawa. However, Chinese subversion is encouraging a small group of noisy local activists to protest the military bases and the Japanese military presence, and incoherently calling for 'independence.'

Speaking of the Chinese influence.. one might ask Governor Tamaki what he does on his visits to the PRC.

Is there a tendency for US military personnel to be granted immunity when they commit crimes?

No. US personnel are punished under either the Japanese or US system when they misbehave. They are not granted immunity.

*The area around United States Marine Corps Air Station Futenma is densely populated. Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, May 28. (©Sankei by Naoki Otake)*

When the US military pollutes the environment, how is responsibility handled?

The Americans have been sensitive about these issues over the last 30 years. They try not to pollute, and if they do, they clean it up. Go back longer and recall that nobody – Japanese or American – was as cautious about environmental pollution as they should have been. The "pollution" argument is often used by the anti-base crowd and by other Okinawans trying to shake down the central government for money.

Why is Okinawa's standard of living said to be among the lowest in Japan?

This isn't accurate. The standard of living is in fact very good – and Okinawa is one of the more prosperous-looking prefectures. It has an air of vitality – even if it's just a "sugar high" from central government payments. If you travel around Japan and visit sleepy, decaying regional towns, you'll understand.

One does wonder why Okinawan educational achievement isn't higher and the economy more diversified.

Perhaps because central government financial support leads to a lack of imagination or urgency by local leaders. Some of them figure it's easier to collect the annual payments from the central government than to attract businesses that will provide opportunities for youth in particular.

Japan's central government could play a more constructive role. For example, they could change regulations to allow more direct economic and commercial ties with Taiwan and otherwise free up business.