How Beijing and Moscow Are Rewriting the World Order

Donald Trump is set to take oath as America's president for his second term in January 2025. Nevertheless, the debate is already out regarding Washington's waning influence in Asia and across the Indo-Pacific. The expansionist territorial agenda of Beijing is finding solid backing from Russia. In its ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia too is despairingly in want of China's backing.

Unsurprisingly, the United States' Biden administration's policy of engaging with Beijing has yielded nothing. Joe Biden chose to extend an olive branch to Xi Jinping, questionably, on multiple occasions in his tenure as the US president.

His administration had identified China as Washington's biggest competitor and Russia as its most significant nation-state threat. Nevertheless, its abject failure to address Beijing only served to aid and accelerate the objectives of China and Russia.

A Sino-Russian-centric World Order?

Strengthened Sino-Russian ties and their advocacy of the shifting global centers of power in a multipolar world lucidly indicate the beginning of a rescripted international order.

This was amply audible when Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in July 2024 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

In Kazakhstan's capital, Astana, they jointly called for resistance to "external interference […] with new centers of political and economic might on the rise […] we should join hands to resist external interference, firmly support each other […] and control […] regional peace."

The Kremlin further noted what it called "tectonic shifts in global politics." It called for the bloc to play an "enhanced role in global and regional security."

The SCO, heralded by Beijing and Moscow, has gradually positioned itself as a regional bloc counterweight and challenger to the West. Founded in 2001, the SCO has attracted the participation of Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan as member states. Together, they represent 40% of the world's population and around 30% of its GDP.

Besides, another regional grouping sponsored by China and Russia, namely BRICS has arguably morphed into a geopolitical forum of regional powers outside of the sphere of the West's alliance politics. It was initially formed as an organization of rapidly developing economic powers, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

*Leaders stand for a photo at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on July 4, 2024 in Astana, Kazakhstan (©AP via Kyodo)*

An 'East Wind' Power Dynamic

Earlier, when Xi welcomed Putin to Beijing in May 2024, the strategic messaging was far deeper. Putin has met Xi more than 40 times since 2012, providing a major fillip to the 21st-century Sino-Russian axis.

The Sino-Russian equation in the contemporary context is seemingly rapidly crystallizing into an "east wind" power dynamic. Russia's war in Ukraine and the increasing probability of China's preparation and move to annex Taiwan also highlight their growing use of force and violation of the norms of international law. These developments are creating a systematic geopolitical environment of expanding regional conflicts and war. Ultimately, their initiative could usurp regional and global peace and stability.

Moscow and Beijing's collective military and economic strength is increasingly being juxtaposed with that of America and its allies. The former is principally opposed to the latter on issues from Taiwan and North Korea to Ukraine.

Democracies in Strategically Important Regions

In the Indo-Pacific, regional democratic stakeholders need to strike a balance of power equilibrium. They cannot afford to give China a walkover in this strategically key region. At the same time, Western powers also cannot allow Russia its way with Ukraine.

This especially holds in terms of a realist understanding of state behavior. China and Russia are beginning to employ bilateral and multilateral military maneuvers as ideal tools to advance vital foreign policy objectives in strategically important regions.

These include Chinese and Russian military exercises in the northern Indian Ocean, at the strategic crossroads where the Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean converge, and in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea.

Countering Russian, Chinese Intervention

In fact, military exercises in the Sea of Japan serve multiple strategic goals for Russia and China. Waterways around the Sea of Japan are critical passages for the Chinese and Russian navies to get to the Western Pacific.

The expanding ambit of Chinese and Russian foreign policy and military coordination showcase the range of their intervention capabilities. Their priorities stretch from the South Atlantic coastline of South Africa to the Indian Ocean and Sea of Japan. Moreover, they also include the Gulf of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean.

Additionally, Russia and China are seeking to boost their respective influence and control, territorially, near their borders. This further buttresses the need for Washington to carve out a fresh strategic policy approach indispensably.

In all, as of now, it appears that the "eastern winds" will guide the direction of the 2025 world order. At the same time, this will be driven by two alternate centers of power and economic stimulus that will attempt to define Asia's security dynamics.

Author: Dr Monika Chansoria

Learn more about Dr Chansoria and follow her column "All Politics is Global" on JAPAN Forward, and on X (formerly Twitter). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organization with which she is affiliated.