Go to Trump First! What's Ishiba Doing Planning a Trip to China?

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Donald J Trump has taken office as the 47th president of the United States. In his inaugural address, Trump proclaimed, "The Golden Age of America begins right now." He went on to promise he would reestablish the US as a superpower based on the "America First" principle.

The President also vowed to rebuild the world's strongest military, promising, "Our power will stop all wars and bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent, and totally unpredictable."

Our first hope is that President Trump, who has shown a desire to end or deter conflicts in various regions, will display this leadership.

His roughly 30-minute speech mixed nostalgia for the past with optimism about the future. It contained a mixture of points that should be appreciated by Japan as an ally as well as points that raise concern.

Don't Rush on Ukraine

Mr Trump also declared the US military's "sole mission" is "to defeat America's enemies." He added, "We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into."

What Trump likely had in mind was the recent decline in America's deterrent capabilities.

Under the Biden administration, even while adjusting for inflation, defense spending continued to decline. Also, the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan created the impression of a weak stance. That likely catalyzed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have strengthened their anti-US collusion.

Trump's emphasis on "peace through strength" through the enhancement of military power to deter aggression is commendable.

Managing Campaign Pledges with Less Friction

President Trump has already signed executive orders to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, an international framework for combating global warming, the World Health Organization (WHO), and other international efforts.

He seems to be rushing to implement public pledges that reflect "common sense" to him. But a mad dash to overturn existing policies would only deepen divisions in the international community. Moreover, it would give authoritarian countries an opening to take advantage of the situation.

In his inaugural speech, Trump mentioned achieving a ceasefire agreement for the Palestinian-controlled Gaza Strip just before he took office. He also stated his intent to play a role as a peace-building mediator. Ukraine will prove a test of that desire.

He should not, however, act as a neutral mediator between Russia and Ukraine. An easy compromise with Russia that violates the UN Charter's provision for territorial inviolability would be tantamount to the United States disregarding the rule of law. That rule is a fundamental principle for world order. 

Along with that, maintaining assistance to Ukraine is important if meaningful mediation is to be achieved. 

In his speech, Mr Trump once again referred to his intent to "take back" the Panama Canal. He did not mention the acquisition of Greenland, an autonomous territory belonging to NATO member Denmark. But he did stress that the Gulf of Mexico would be renamed "the Gulf of America." Such behavior could be perceived as similar to the customary tactics of China and certain other countries. 

New US Secretary of State

Senator Marco Rubio has been confirmed as Secretary of State. During his Senate confirmation hearing, he described China as "the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever faced." China has been expanding its military capabilities, including nuclear missiles, at a rate incomparably faster than during Trump's first term.

The direction that Trump's China policy will take during his second term remains unclear. However, he has signaled his intent to use tariffs as a weapon to curb China's economic coercion. At the same time, he will probably seek to strengthen deterrent capabilities to counter China's ambition to annex Taiwan. 

Profiting from a Stable Alliance

Even though Trump has touted his good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it is too early to conclude that the US and China are heading toward reconciliation.

China, our biggest threat, is always looking to drive a wedge between Japan and the US. In that sense, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba needs to prioritize solidifying relations with the United States through close communication with Trump rather than rushing to visit China.

US relations with Europe are expected to remain unpredictable following Trump's return to the White House. However, Japan-US relations should remain stable as they did following the honeymoon era of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Mr Trump, followed by the congenial relations of former PM Fumio Kishida and President Joe Biden.

Does Prime Minister Ishiba not comprehend the importance of our bilateral ties? He should visit the United States as soon as possible.

Toward Resolving the Abductions Issue

Speaking to reporters, Trump said that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is a "nuclear power." At the same time, he said, the two men "got along well." Nevertheless, North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles pose a threat to both Japan and the US, and Pyongyang must not be recognized as a nuclear power. 

Ishiba also needs to emphasize that Trump's support is essential to resolving the abductions issue.

Absent from Trump's inaugural address was a specific mention of a commitment to defend a world order based on democracy. Similarly absent was a mention of the importance of allies who share and safeguard those values. Ishiba should convince Trump that maintaining order and cooperative relations with allies is essential for ushering in a "golden age" for America.

Uncertainty may increase with the return of ever "unpredictable" President Trump, but that does not mean that Japan must atrophy. We can prosper together with the United States by jointly protecting a free and open order. We must look to our own commitment in this regard.

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Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun

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