John Carroll 
President Trump. January 27, Miami, Florida (©Reuters)
As Donald Trump returns to the White House, one thing is for sure. China is receiving very little love in Washington DC.
The vast majority of politicians and other Beltway denizens, Democrats and Republicans alike, perceive China as a serious threat, and "engagement" has become a dirty word. At least outside the business community, the ranks of "panda huggers" have shrunken drastically. And there appears to be a growing feeling that a return to a policy of "containing China" is inevitable. Moreover, a future China-US conflict has become a distinct possibility.
But what about American foreign policy professionals, who might be expected to have more diverse views? After all, rigorous intellectual debate, questioning of prior assumptions, and playing the "devil's advocate" are vital to intelligence analysis and foreign policy decision-making. Failure to adhere to these time-tested principles contributed to major US foreign policy debacles in the past. During the Vietnam War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, for example.
Diverse Attitudes
In 2023, Michael Cerny, a PhD candidate in the Department of Government at Harvard University, and Rory Truex, an Associate Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, conducted a study. It focused on the attitudes of 495 professionals in the field of US national security (primarily think tank employees) regarding China and US-China policy. They released a draft of their working paper, titled "Under Pressure: Attitudes Towards China Among American Foreign Policy Professionals" on December 9, 2024.
Key findings include the fact that although more than three-quarters of survey respondents expressed unfavorable views of the Chinese government and its behavior, there was no rigid consensus.
Instead, there was considerable diversity of policy perspectives among these professionals. Most members of the foreign policy community agree that China is a major competitor to the US. However, they hold a diverse range of views as to which policies are most appropriate to compete with China.
The report notes, "We observe that individuals that lean Republican, have military experience, and are junior professionals, in general, have more confrontational attitudes. Individuals that lean Democrat are not quite as confrontational as those who lean Republican, but compared to Independents, they view China less favorably and are more likely to perceive China as an enemy."
Hawkflation
At the same time, roughly one-fourth of survey respondents admitted to feeling socially or psychologically pressured to speak about China in "hawkish" terms. Privately, however, their views were often more nuanced. That held true especially for younger staff and members of minorities (younger, non-white, or female).
Alarming is the fact that Chinese-Americans and other Asian interviewees noted unique pressures to affirm their loyalty to the US. Many felt that their (often substantial) expertise in China was undervalued or considered compromising. As one interviewee put it, "Anybody who is of the Chinese diaspora and to the left of Gordon Chang, it's open season on us."
In short, the full range of views is not accurately being proffered or depicted in public settings.
All of these factors have contributed to what one interview subject labeled as "hawkflation." However, the man who has undoubtedly done the most to bring out the hawk in normally mild-mannered members of foreign policy elites is none other than Xi Jinping. Since Xi came to power, China has become more hardline to the outside world, engaging in a massive military buildup and repression at home.
Simultaneously, it has become increasingly secretive and reluctant to let foreigners learn what is really going on in the country. No wonder foreign policy experts assume the worst. Xi almost seems to be begging for the US to return to the politics of containment.
Select Committee on China
The report makes the following interesting observation: "It is noteworthy that the two most commonly referenced names in our interviews were those of former Congressman Michael Gallagher and the Trump administration's former Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger. The viewpoints of these individuals tend to dominate the conversation, even in rooms they are not in."
In the spring of 2023, the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), cochaired by Gallagher, held its first meeting.
CNN's Fareed Zakaria criticized the committee, describing it as a return to the era of Joe McCarthy. He likened it to transporting the country back to the 1950s. Zakaria also expressed concern about what he saw as a "wide-ranging consensus on China that has turned into a classic example of groupthink." It could steer the United States toward "decades of arms races, crises, perhaps even war," he warned.
Perhaps Zacharia might have waited to see how the committee actually functioned. Under Gallagher's dynamic leadership and operating in a true bipartisan spirit, the committee quickly drafted legislative proposals on support for Taiwan, fentanyl, human rights, and the Chinese military threat.
Devoid of the partisan rancor that dominates so many Congressional committees, the Select Committee on China actually got things done. There was a palpable sense of excitement surrounding the committee. Rush Doshi, former National Security Council official on China policy in the Joe Biden administration, characterized it as the "least partisan committee on Capitol Hill.."
Cheap Messaging?
Gallagher himself led the crusade to ban the social media platform TikTok, which he described as "digital fentanyl" because of its allegedly harmful and addictive characteristics. He charged TikTok is "intentionally brainwashing" American youth while promoting CCP propaganda and censoring criticism of China.
The committee paved the way for a bipartisan law banning TikTok in the US on national security grounds. Under the law, TikTok's Chinese owner, ByteDance, had to sell the company by January 19 to avoid the ban. What will become of TikTok, however, remains to be seen. Trump himself has sharply reversed his previous stance of calling for a ban on the popular video-sharing app.
Recently, it was announced that the committee would be renewed for another two years. However, according to some sources on the committee, since Gallagher left Congress in April 2024, the sheen has come off the committee and it has lost a bit of its "mojo." Work has slowed down, and though still proud of its bilateral spirit, the influence of the China Committee has waned somewhat.
There was little partisanship evident during what Speaker Mike Johnson dubbed "China Week" last September. Most of the nearly 25 China-related bills passed were purely Republican initiatives. China Committee member Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass) dismissed the much-ballyhooed affair as "an entirely partisan affair" that favored "cheap messaging over substantive policy."
Musk and China
Meanwhile, Elon Musk, Trump's "first buddy," has recently been busy trying to destabilize and even topple democratic governments. However, he has nary a discouraging word for Vladimir Putin and, especially, Xi Jinping.
Like Trump, Musk's position on Taiwan is problematic. In the past, he said that he favored incorporating Taiwan into China as a "special administrative zone" like Hong Kong. Musk apparently believes that the freedom of the people of Taiwan is not as important as his massive China-based Tesla operations. Any conflict over Taiwan would jeopardize them.
Retired rear admiral Mike Studeman, former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, has warned about Musk. According to Studeman, Musk is "compromised and co-opted by the Chinese, … a Chinese sympathizer of high order."
Incidentally, Mike Studeman is the son of Navy Admiral William O. Studeman, who served as director of the National Security Agency from 1988 to 1992. Additionally, he served as deputy director of Central Intelligence from 1992 to 1995.
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Author: John Carroll
