Ryosuke Endo 
Vladimir Putin attends the signing ceremony for a joint document between Russia and Mongolia in Ulaanbaatar on September 3 (©Tass via Kyodo)
Western authorities are increasingly convinced that Russia was involved in a series of fires. These fires broke out at air cargo hubs in Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland on July 24. Fully booked passenger planes were at risk of bursting into flames and crashing — a truly chilling scenario.
The fires broke out in quick succession at multiple sites. They occurred in Leipzig, central-eastern Germany, on the outskirts of Birmingham, central England, and near Warsaw, the capital of Poland. Warehouses, including those of international logistics giant DHL, were set ablaze.
Russian Intelligence Involved
According to a report by the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal in November 2024, massage devices shipped from Lithuania caused the fires in the UK and Germany. Apparently, someone had rigged them with magnesium-based incendiary devices.
When magnesium ignites, it is difficult to extinguish using standard fire suppression systems found on aircraft. While dedicated cargo planes transport most air cargo, companies sometimes use passenger aircraft cargo holds as well.
European investigative authorities believe the series of incidents may have been a dry run. They think it was aimed at determining how cargo would be loaded onto flights bound for the United States and Canada.
According to a digital edition of The New York Times on January 13, 2025, the Joe Biden administration conducted intelligence analysis in August 2024. It concluded that Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, was involved. At the time, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and then-CIA Director William Burns issued a warning to Vladimir Putin. Both men urged his administration to cease such terrorist activities.
On January 15, 2025, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in a press conference that Russia had planned "acts of terrorism" against civilian aircraft worldwide. Those Russian plots included orchestrating the July 2024 fires in Poland.
Moscow's Shadow Fleet
In the Baltic Sea region of Europe, incidents of damage to undersea cables for fiber-optic communication and power transmission have continued. There are strong suspicions of Russian involvement in these occurrences.
Furthermore, in November 2024, a Chinese cargo ship captained by a Russian national damaged two undersea communication cables. Then, in December, four other power and communication cables were damaged. Finnish authorities subsequently seized a tanker carrying Russian oil. Investigations of the seabed showed traces of an anchor being dragged for nearly 100 kilometers. Authorities believe the tanker is part of the so-called "shadow fleet." This fleet smuggles Russian oil to evade sanctions from the US, Europe, and Japan.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has established a department focused on protecting critical undersea infrastructure and is stepping up its vigilance. A Chinese-crewed cargo ship caused similar cable damage incidents in January 2025 near Taiwan. Japan cannot ignore this issue.
Lessons and Misconceptions
European nations are increasingly alarmed that Russia's hybrid warfare has already begun. Russia, angered by support for Ukraine, appears to be testing the West's response through gray zone attacks. Strengthening defense measures is crucial, but so is issuing stern warnings to Russia, as the former Biden administration did.
Following Donald Trump's inauguration, there is growing hope that Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine will come to an end. Some commentators in Japan, however, have made the absurd claim that if Trump and Putin join hands, the world will achieve peace.
As a journalist, I am deeply committed to the fair resolution of Russia's war against Ukraine. However, in any discussion, we must not lose sight of the true nature of Russia and the Putin administration.
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(Read the article in Japanese.)
Author: Ryosuke Endo, The Sankei Shimbun
