India Accuses Bangladesh of Provoking Tensions in Northeast

A recent statement by the Chief Adviser of the Interim Government of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, has stirred a hornet's nest in India. Yunus said: "[T]he seven states of India, the eastern part of India, are called the Seven Sisters. They are a landlocked region of India. They have no way to reach out to the ocean. We (Bangladesh) are the only guardian of the ocean for this region."

The fact that Yunus made this statement during his visit to China is particularly important. This was also his first foreign visit after taking over as the Bangladeshi government's Chief Advisor. In the past, it was a practice for Bangladeshi leaders to visit India first.

New Delhi now needs to understand why Yunus is making such provocative statements.

One of the obvious reasons is that he wants to draw in Chinese investment into Bangladesh. While Bangladesh has already joined China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India has not. For this purpose, Yunus has tried to position Dhaka as a maritime conduit to India's Northeast. He is treating countries like Nepal and Bhutan in the same way.

Ever since the former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Shiekh Hasina was forced out of office (in August 2024), relations between India and Bangladesh have deteriorated. Both countries have also sparred over the treatment of minorities in Bangladesh, especially the Hindu minority. In addition, Bangladesh, under Yunus, has been reaching out to India's arch-rival, Pakistan. The main goal of the Yunus-led interim government seems to be to take Bangladesh as far away from India as possible.

*Former Prime Minister Hasina meets with foreign journalists in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in January 2024. (©Reuters/Kyodo News)*

Options for New Delhi?

New Delhi needs to look at alternatives to help it navigate future challenges. This is especially important with regard to the narrow Siliguri Corridor — also known as the Chicken's Neck Corridor. This is the strip of land that connects Northeast India to the mainland. Earlier, it had faced such threats when Chinese and Indian forces clashed in Doklam in Bhutan in 2017. That area was very close to the Chicken's Neck Corridor.

One solution could be to explore underground rail and road links that would allow both civilian and military movement in times of crisis. India also needs to bolster its maritime connectivity through Myanmar. New Delhi has already invested in a big way in the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Project, through which goods can be shipped to and from Northeast India.

India already manages the critical Sittwe Port in Myanmar through India Ports Global Limited (IPGL). Goods can be shipped from the port via the Kaladan River and then transported by road into Northeast India, specifically to the state of Mizoram.

China Gains, Japan Fades

China's role is especially important in this context, yet it has received far too little attention. It has been trying to get a foothold in India's neighborhood, and the recent developments in Bangladesh allow Beijing to do just that. Already, it has tried doing that in countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

The Shiekh Hasina-led Awami League government had been cold to Chinese overtures in the past. However, under Yunus, the tide seems to have turned in the opposite direction.

Japan has close ties with Bangladesh and was among the first to recognize the country after its independence in 1971. It has provided aid for many infrastructure projects in Bangladesh and is one of the key backers (financially) for the Matarbari deep-sea port. But all that seems to have gone up in smoke now.

For Japan, Bangladesh is important for the success of its free and open Indo-Pacific vision. That was one of the reasons why Japan was interested in Bangladesh. The idea was to bolster seamless connectivity between South Asia and Southeast Asia.

A Test for New Delhi

It would be foolhardy for New Delhi to take these threats from Yunus lightly. India needs to take all available means to ensure that the connectivity with its Northeastern part is even more robust than earlier.

In a positive development, the Indian Prime Minister has met with Yunus. Their meeting took place on the sidelines of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit in Thailand. This marked the first time the two leaders met in person following the ouster of former PM Shiekh Hasina.

Bangladesh has a host of challenges on the domestic front, too. Earlier in February, the Bangladesh Army Chief had gone on record urging an end to the endless spiral of violence in the country. In addition, there is the issue of the Rohingyas, who migrated en masse into Bangladesh after violence in the Rohingya-inhabited parts of Myanmar.

Delhi Holds the Leverage

India has many levers of influence over Bangladesh. One case in point is the power supply. Recently, the Indian conglomerate Adani Power restored the power supply to Bangladesh. The move came four months after it had reduced the total supply by half due to unpaid dues by the Bangladeshi government.

There is no doubt that Bangladesh needs to put its own house in order before trying to pull India down. Many leaders from Bangladesh have had this fascination with Northeast India, and it was also one of the reasons for the Assam Agitation against illegal Bangladeshis in Assam. However, as things currently stand, it seems Yunus may have bitten off more than he can chew.

However, people like Yunus also don't seem to learn from history as they continue barking up the wrong tree.

Author: Rupakjyoti Borah

Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are personal.