Kenji Yoshida 
Grant Newsham during an interview with JAPAN Forward (Screenshot)
Security expert Grant Newsham warns Japan must raise its game to meet escalating geopolitical challenges.
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, another crisis is brewing in East Asia. China has ramped up its military pressure near Taiwan and Japan's southern islands in recent years, raising alarm in both Tokyo and Washington.
With Beijing's intensifying provocations, one of the most urgent questions facing Japanese and American policymakers is whether their militaries are truly prepared to confront the shifting regional landscape.
In an exclusive interview with JAPAN Forward, retired United States Marine Colonel Grant Newsham offers a candid assessment of Japan's defense posture and the overhauls needed. Newsham is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and was the first Marine liaison to Japan's Self-Defense Forces.
On Boosting Defense Ties
What is one area where Japan and the US could boost defense ties?
One urgent area for improvement is enabling American and Japanese forces to operate together — and, if necessary, fight — as a unified force. I propose establishing a joint task force in the Nansei Shoto, Japan's southern islands. This is where the Chinese are making aggressive moves, particularly around the Senkaku Islands.
Right now, the Japanese are responding to Chinese ships in the area or patrolling through and around the Nansei Shoto alone. And that's not enough. The Chinese aren't particularly afraid of Japan on its own. With US forces involved, that changes.
The two countries would need to allocate forces, meaning designating specific units from the Marines, Navy, and Air Force to jointly carry out various missions. If both sides were serious about it, this could be up and running in under three months.
Are the two militaries prepared for a joint operation?
The Japanese Navy is solid. Its relationship with the US Navy should serve as the model for the rest of the Japan Self-Defense Forces in working with US forces. Outside of the two navies, though, the ability to conduct real-world, short-notice operations just isn't there. And frankly, I haven't seen much motivation on either side to change that.
That said, the Marines have made real progress in recent years with both the Japanese Army and Navy, especially by working with the Ground Self-Defense Force's Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade as a test bed. From the start, there's been a strong US Marine and US Navy connection. Over the past decade or so, that's evolved into a solid example of how the American and Japanese sides can come together around a shared mission.
Will Trump be onboard for closer military cooperation?
[US President Donald] Trump would probably ask, "Why aren't we already doing this?" He's already said as much, pointing out that Japan doesn't even have to fight all that hard to defend itself, let alone us.
If Japan embraces the joint task force concept — committing its navy, air force, and amphibious units to operate alongside American forces to fight — that's going to send a strong message. It'll look very good, especially from a US perspective.
How about Ishiba's government in Japan?
There are good people in Japan's government, in both the administration and the defense ministry. They understand the value of this idea.
I think you could introduce the joint task force concept and build enough momentum that it starts to take hold. Someone like Ishiba might even say, "Sure, go ahead." Once it's underway, Japanese people would quickly move on. You've seen this happen before.
Take Japan's amphibious force, for example. Back in 2011 or 2012, even saying the word "amphibious" was practically taboo. It brought up uncomfortable memories of World War II. You couldn't even talk about it seriously. But around that time, I worked with my Japanese colleagues and others to help make that capability a reality. Not long after, the attitude completely shifted.
On Preparedness and Taiwan
What would be the role of Japan in a Taiwan contingency?
Japan is going to have to fully commit its navy, air force, and ground self-defense forces to support the Americans. If necessary, to engage directly in combat. That means the Japanese Navy will need to operate in real battle zones.
It can't afford to hang back and avoid the fighting while expecting the US to shoulder all the risk. Just think about how that would play politically in Washington. If Americans start to believe that Japan is staying where it's safe while US forces are dying, it won't take long before people stop respecting Japan altogether.
Is Japan ready in terms of war stocks?
Japan doesn't have enough war stocks—ammunition, missiles, and the hardware needed to sustain a fight. They're operating at bare minimum levels and would run out fast in a real conflict. Recruitment is another serious issue. The Self-Defense Forces are missing their targets by as much as 50%.
Would that be a military-industrial base problem?
Part of the issue is production capacity. But I think a bigger problem is psychological and political on Japan's side. For years, the thinking was: We don't want to fight a war. The Americans are here to protect us, so why invest in manufacturing hardware or buying enough equipment, mostly from the US, or even making it ourselves?
This was a conscious decision by the Japanese government not to prepare for a real fight. For a long time, Japan convinced itself it faced no serious threat. In fact, many believed the only real danger was the US dragging Japan into a war. Now, the concern has flipped. Many in Japan worry the US might not defend them if a war breaks out. I believe we will — but it's ironic how much that perception has changed.
Ultimately, Japan's ruling class chose not to get ready for war, even though they should've seen the signs at least a decade ago. Combat logistics — an extremely specialized field — is one example. Japan still hasn't mastered it.
On the War in Ukraine
Some in Japan have voiced concerns over Washington's Ukraine policy. What is your assessment of the pending negotiations?"
I think the Trump team has done reasonably well. Of course, it gets criticized all the time. But it would be criticized no matter what it did. Still, they've been honest enough to recognize that the war in Ukraine cannot continue in its current state.
The United States is carrying too much of the burden, while the Europeans are doing too little. If we had to fight more than one war at the same time, we would be stretched thin. The more attention and resources we give to Ukraine, the less we can focus on China, North Korea, and the defense of Japan.
Make no mistake, ending a war is never easy. Just look at how difficult it was to end the Korean War, which only resulted in an armistice. The Vietnam War was also hard to conclude. During the Korean War, when the US was working toward a ceasefire, Syngman Rhee opposed it. He tried to sabotage the effort, demanding that the United Nations — meaning the Americans — drive the Chinese and North Koreans back to the Yalu River. But the US couldn't do that, and didn't want to.
China is helping Russia stay afloat. What can be done?
I would start by banning US dollar transactions with China, prohibiting US investments in China, and blocking Chinese investments in the US. I'd also suspend the People's Bank of China's access to the US dollar system for a set period of time.
Without these steps, China, along with North Korea and Iran, will be able to provide Russia with enough support to prolong the war indefinitely. We've already imposed plenty of sanctions on North Korea, but we've never enforced them properly.
Some experts in Japan argue Ukraine could hold out for another one to two years without US support. What's your take?
Ukraine wouldn't stand a chance without US military support. The Europeans lack the resources because, for decades, they've willfully neglected their own defense. Even when urged to invest, most refused. In many cases, they allowed their militaries to wither.
The British have about twenty-five operational tanks. Their army is smaller than it's been since the days of the Duke of Wellington. Germany's military is a joke — they can barely field a single division now, compared to six solid ones during the Cold War. They decided they didn't need a military, and now they don't have one. The French are in slightly better shape than the British and Germans, but not by much.
Remember, even after three years of war, Europeans still buy around 18% of their natural gas and energy from Russia. That money goes straight into fueling the war in Ukraine. And some Europeans are turning around and telling the Americans they're not doing enough.
Europe needs to move fast to rebuild its militaries, because America is losing more than just patience — it's losing the ability to handle two or three challenges at once.
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
