Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun 
Defense Minister Gen Nakatani inspects a fishing port on Hateruma Island in Okinawa Prefecture in preparation for the evacuation of residents in the event of an emergency.
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This is a critical issue that directly affects the lives of the Japanese people. The government has announced an evacuation plan for all residents of the Sakishima archipelago (the Miyakojima and Yaeyama island groups) in Okinawa Prefecture in the event of a Taiwan contingency.
The plan calls for the seven Kyushu prefectures and Yamaguchi Prefecture on Honshu to share responsibility in accepting about 120,000 evacuees.
In addition to Okinawa, each of these participating prefectures will draw up its own plans for handling the evacuees. These will subsequently be integrated into a package by the central government. The plan is still in its infancy. However, it is of great significance because it begins laying out a road map for the evacuations. Relevant agencies and local governments deserve praise for their efforts.
Meanwhile, likely issues, such as securing adequate transportation and providing support for daily life at evacuation sites, have become apparent. The government needs to conduct large-scale drills involving local residents as soon as possible. This is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of the plan. Hopefully, all the local governments affected will cooperate fully.
A Six-Day Evacuation
The plan calls for the transport of about 110,000 residents of five municipalities in the Sakishima islands, including Ishigaki and Miyakojima, as well as about 10,000 tourists, to Kyushu by passenger planes and ferries. All are to be evacuated within six days. Residents would be organized by home district and temporarily housed in hotels and other facilities in Kyushu or Yamaguchi Prefecture.
Transportation capable of moving 20,000 people per day would be required to handle the evacuees. That is double the normal rate of traffic between these locations. Anticipating this situation, the plan calls for special measures, including temporary adjustments to passenger capacity on ships. Still, considerable confusion is expected.
Weather may also affect evacuations. Also, the authorities will have to consider additional support for people with special needs due to difficulties in getting around on their own.
As it moves towards finalizing the plan, the central government expects to conduct field training in cooperation with local governments during FY2026. But that would be too late. It is essential to conduct large-scale training with the participation of many local residents to quickly identify and resolve any issues. Instead of waiting till FY2026, multiple simulated evacuations should be conducted during the current 2025 fiscal year.
Okinawa Drags Its Heels
Unfortunately, there is a notable lack of enthusiasm on the part of Okinawa Prefecture, where the effort is most needed. So far, the prefecture has only staged tabletop exercises and has not conducted full-scale field training.
Governor Denny Tamaki has expressed his gratitude to the prefectures that will be accepting the refugees. But he has also stated that the "national government needs to provide a thorough explanation to allay [the] concerns of the local communities." It is as if the whole matter has nothing to do with him.
After all, shouldn't Tamaki himself visit all the prefectures concerned and ask for their cooperation? It is also his role as governor to explain the importance of the plan to the people of Okinawa.
In parallel with the formation of evacuation plans, evacuation facilities and bomb shelters must also be fast-tracked. Protecting citizens remains the greatest responsibility of both Tokyo and the local governments.
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Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun
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