India Leads New Strategic Vision While Japan Looks Away

このページを日本語で読む

Since Shinzo Abe stepped down from office, especially following his assassination, India's interest in Japan appears to have declined. During his tenure, Abe launched the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, among Japan, the United States, Australia, and India. He even introduced the term "Indo-Pacific" to replace "Asia-Pacific" as a new framework for understanding the region.

These moves were a kind of forward-looking investment in India's future. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greatly valued these gestures and forged a deep personal bond with Abe.

*Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (©Reuters/Kyodo)*

India's Waning Interest in Japan

Japan-India relations have since neither markedly regressed nor accelerated. One could call the current state stable — or simply dull.

Today, India is turning its gaze westward, where both change and opportunity are rapidly unfolding, rather than looking east to Japan. The Japanese government, which has in turn lost interest in India, seems oblivious to this shift.

In New Delhi, attention has begun to shift from the Quad toward a newer multilateral framework known as "I2U2." This grouping brings together India and Israel, along with the United States and the United Arab Emirates — two nations beginning with "I" and two with "U," hence the name.

Beneath the surface, however, lies a deeper strategic foundation.

On September 15, 2020 (the very day Abe's administration officially ended in Japan), then-President Donald Trump presided over a historic diplomatic event. It was the day diplomatic relations were normalized between Israel, Bahrain, and the UAE, in what became known as the Abraham Accords.

Later, Morocco and Sudan (despite political instability) joined the accords. In May 2025, Trump visited the Middle East and strongly advocated for Saudi Arabia to join.

*US President Trump shakes hands with Crown Prince Mohammed (right) in Saudi Arabia. May 13 (Photo provided by the Saudi Royal Family / Reuters).*

If Saudi Arabia, home to Islam's holiest sites and self-styled leader of the Arab world, signs on, the accords will carry even greater weight. As the name suggests, "Abraham" refers to the prophet common to Christianity, Judaism, and Islam.

The Abraham Accords became a catalyst for the official launch of I2U2 in July 2022.

India Looks West

The four I2U2 countries agreed to collaborate in six key sectors:

Food security
Water management
Renewable and hydrogen energy
Space
Healthcare
Transportation and infrastructure

These are all civilian sectors, and all traditional areas of Japanese expertise. I've quietly advocated for Japan to join as a fifth member, forming an "I2JU2" alliance. With its deep capabilities and trusted ties, Japan could serve as a crucial bridge, anchoring the framework and discouraging any wavering in US policy.

Yet the wall of indifference in Kasumigaseki (Japan's bureaucracy) and Nagatacho (its political center) remains dauntingly high.

Meanwhile, with its focus turned westward, India has launched a sweeping new infrastructure vision.

This vision is known as the IMEC — the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor — unveiled at the G20 summit hosted by India in September 2023.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by seven countries and one regional bloc: Saudi Arabia, the European Union, India, the UAE, France, Germany, Italy, and the US.

Under IMEC, cargo from Mumbai will be shipped to Jebel Ali Port in Dubai, then carried by rail across Saudi Arabia to Haifa Port in Israel. From there, it connects to Piraeus Port in Greece, Trieste Port in Italy, and Marseille Port in France, linking to Europe's inland transportation networks.

Strategic Push Against China

Designed as a counterweight to China's corridor through Pakistan and Iran, IMEC aims to strengthen ties among US allies across the region. For Israel, it also extends its strategic footprint. The Abraham Accords lay the political groundwork, I2U2 provides the cooperative framework, and IMEC builds upon both to create a bold new infrastructure vision.

If container transfers between sea and land operate smoothly, Mumbai and Marseille could be connected in just five days — an ambitious goal, but one that promises far greater speed and security than the Suez Canal route, with only one-sixth of the transit time and reduced exposure to Iranian-backed militant threats.

A Vision Worth Joining

I recently attended a related conference in Budapest, co-hosted by Hungarian and Israeli think tanks. The energy surrounding this vision was unmistakable. And once again, I was struck by Japan's absence.

Before World War I, Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany proposed the "3B Project," a railway linking Berlin, Byzantium (now Istanbul), and Baghdad. Whether today's Germany feels a similar historical pull is unclear, but Japan's indifference towards the IMEC is all too evident.

When Japanese media mention "IMEC," they often confuse it with Belgium's semiconductor research institute of the same name. Coverage of the actual corridor initiative is virtually nonexistent.

A plan to connect Saudi Arabia and Israel by rail should be thrilling — a bold and historic undertaking. Yet post-Abe Japan wasn't even approached by India to participate. Perhaps that's because both the Japanese government and private sector have grown too passive, too detached from the developments unfolding to India's west.

Still, it's not too late. The Japanese government should start by paying attention and begin charting a course for meaningful involvement in this ambitious project.

(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Tomohiko Taniguchi, Special Advisor to Fujitsu FSC, Former Cabinet Secretariat Advisor

このページを日本語で読む