Saho Matsumoto 
Pope Leo XIV (©Reuters/Kyodo)
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Pope Francis passed away on April 21, and his successor, Pope Leo XIV, has now ascended to the papacy. In the weeks leading up to the May 18 inauguration, I followed this historic transition closely, drawing on my years of research into the papacy and its long lineage.
Remarkably, even in Japan, a predominantly non-Christian nation with just 410,000 Catholics, representing a mere 0.03% of the global Catholic population, the conclave drew widespread interest. Media outlets across the world, including those in Muslim-majority countries, provided detailed coverage of the event.
Media Frenzy
On April 20, during Easter celebrations, Pope Francis made a surprise appearance on the balcony of St Peter's Basilica, stunning the faithful. He passed away early the next morning. In that final, unexpected moment, he drew on every last reserve of strength to offer himself fully to the people, an act that epitomized the lifelong devotion expected of God's representative on earth.
There was little time for mourning before a wave of interview requests came flooding in. Alongside serious news programs, even entertainment talk shows reached out with a barrage of questions: "Where does the word 'conclave' come from?” "Who's the frontrunner for the papacy?” "What do the cardinals eat?”
This spike in public curiosity was no doubt fueled by Conclave, a film still showing in Japanese theaters. Set in a sealed chamber cut off from the outside world, it dramatizes the political maneuvering behind the selection of a new pope — fiction that quickly became reality.
A City Holds Its Breath
When the official start date of the conclave, May 7, was announced, I promptly canceled my planned trip to the United States and rerouted to the Vatican, the heart of the Roman Catholic Church.
I attended the memorial Mass for Pope Francis and had the rare chance to witness, from inside St Peter's Basilica, the procession of cardinals participating in the conclave. Each time a cardinal from a particular country entered, the faithful from that nation erupted in applause. At a separate Mass, I was fortunate enough to briefly speak with Japanese Cardinal Isao Kikuchi.
As the conclave approached, preparations intensified. Every day, cardinals gathered behind the basilica in the Synod Hall for discussions that lasted hours.
The square outside was thick with anticipation. Global media and paparazzi waited eagerly, zooming in on even the smallest gestures. If a conservative cardinal was spotted walking beside another, headlines exploded with speculation. Pundits wondered aloud if it signaled secret talks or a brewing counteroffensive against Francis's reformers.
Witnessing the Conclave
On the first day of the conclave, a single round of voting ended in deadlock. Black smoke rose from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, signaling that no pope had been chosen. Still, the crowd of faithful and journalists held their ground. By the second day, their numbers had only grown. Once again, the morning vote yielded black smoke. Some drifted away for lunch, but as the afternoon session approached, St Peter's Square quickly filled again.
Then, just as the tension began to dissipate, a sudden shift: white smoke began to rise. A new pope had been elected. The square exploded with cheers and emotion.
Most were convinced they would see Cardinal Parolin of Italy, the clear favorite, step onto the balcony. Instead, it was Cardinal Prevost of the United States who emerged. The unexpected outcome prompted scattered boos from disappointed Italian worshippers.
But hearts quickly turned as the new pope stepped forward and spoke his first words: "Peace be with you.” He vowed to reshape the Catholic Church into a bridge for dialogue, an institution of connection rather than division.
With decades of experience in the Peruvian Church and strong backing from Latin American nations like Argentina and Brazil, a chorus erupted from the "cheering squad from the other side of the world.” Cries of "Leo! Leo! Leo!” echoed through the square, transforming it into something more akin to a jubilant football stadium than a solemn religious site.
How Prevost Secured the Papacy
Cardinal Parolin, widely viewed as the frontrunner and known for his closeness to China, had entered the conclave with 40 votes. He later gained another 30 from supporters of Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines, putting him over 70. However, he still fell shy of the 89 needed for the two-thirds majority.
In the final rounds, momentum shifted. Parolin's backers, along with African cardinals, many from former French colonies who shared cultural ties with Prevost, and the Latin American bloc, threw their support behind Cardinal Prevost. He ultimately secured over 100 votes, sealing his election as the new pope.
In an Age of Global Instability
Given that Pope Leo XIV hails from the US, speculation quickly surfaced about potential influence from President Donald Trump. However, Cardinals Burke and Dolan, reportedly Trump's preferred candidates, were ultimately not selected.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, who was baptized with the Christian name Francis, attended the inauguration. He is said to have had conversations with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio during the event.
Vance had sharply criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February. However, at the Vatican, the two met again following the new pope's inaugural mass. A photo of Vance and Zelenskyy smiling together was later posted on social media, hinting at a potential thaw.
Vance had also previously clashed with the pope. However, he signaled a willingness to work with the new pontiff to help end the Russia-Ukraine war, even though they remain at odds over immigration policy, a key concern for the Vatican.
The Vatican, under the leadership of the pope, has been the world's smallest sovereign state and a symbol of permanent neutrality since 1929. Throughout modern history, it has often served as a quiet but influential mediator in international political disputes.
Amid a world growing ever more unstable, starting with the renewed tariff wars under a second Trump administration, many are now turning to the newly elected pope as a potential beacon of reason and stability.
This may help explain the extraordinary global attention surrounding this papal election. It is an interest that reaches far beyond matters of faith.
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(Read the article in Japanese.)
Author: Saho Matsumoto, Professor, College of International Relations, Nihon University.
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