Speaking Out | As Iran Heats Up, Japan Faces a National Crisis

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It's hard to believe that four former defense ministers attended a meeting that ended up being such an abomination. I am talking about the June 13 meeting of Japan's National Security Council. Regarding Israel's attack on Iran nuclear facilities and other targets, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba instructed the relevant Cabinet ministers to (1) collect information, (2) take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals in the region, and (3) cooperate with relevant countries to de-escalate the situation and resolve the Iran nuclear issue.

These instructions covered nothing more than what the relevant ministers should do as a matter of course, even without instruction from the Prime Minister who convened the meeting. They also lacked any message to the public.

Ishiba should have instructed the ministers to prepare measures in the event that Iran implements a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, he should have conveyed to the public the recognition that this situation would not be limited to affecting only the Middle East.

*Minister for Foreign Affairs Takeshi Iwaya*

Power Vacuum in the Western Pacific

Participants in the NSC meeting included Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani. The three joined Prime Minister Ishiba, who called the meeting.

All four have served as defense ministers in the past. Within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, they are also considered well-versed in national security issues. They should be well aware that the escalation of attacks between Israel and Iran could cause a chain of reactions. Those include not only the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz but also the United States' diversion of troops from the Asia Pacific to the Middle East.

*Chinese Navy aircraft carrier "Shandong" (Provided by the Ministry of Defense Joint Staff Office)*

Coincidentally, in early June, China's Navy conducted its first coordinated exercise in the western Pacific involving two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong. During the exercise, a Chinese J-15 fighter jet tailed a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force P-3C patrol aircraft flying over the Pacific Ocean for surveillance. The Chinese fighter made a dangerous flight approaching as close as 45 meters to the P-3C. Tensions are rising as Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi expressed grave concern. "Such an unusual approach by a Chinese military aircraft could cause an accidental collision," he cautioned.

Some Japanese government officials say the inauguration of the second Trump administration in the United States has created a power vacuum in the western Pacific. That, they say, has encouraged the Chinese military to fill the vacuum. At the NSC meeting, the Prime Minister should have instructed the Self-Defense Forces to increase their vigilance in order to prevent the Chinese military from taking further provocative actions.

Does he think it is okay to try to resolve matters with China always in a conciliatory manner?

Empty Condemnation of Israel

After the NSC meeting, Ishiba said of the Israeli attack: "It is completely unacceptable that military means were used while diplomatic efforts for a peaceful solution were ongoing. I strongly condemn the extremely regrettable action." Israel, which has a strong determination to never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons, may not want to be lectured by Japan, which failed to prevent North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons.

*Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (©Getty via Kyodo) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (©Reuters via Kyodo)*

Ishiba has characterized the Trump administration's tariff policy as a national crisis. However, the real national crisis lies in China's military actions and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 80% of Japan's crude oil imports pass through that narrow neck.

It is a mistake to see the impact of the Israeli attack as confined to the Middle East.

(A version of this article was first published by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Find it in Speaking Out #1262 in Japanese on October 21 and in English on June 16, 2025)