Defense Minister Gen Nakatani (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna)
Japan's 2025 Defense White Paper will soon be formally approved by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Cabinet.
It's not quite fair to say that if you've seen one White Paper, you've seen them all. But one can pretty much anticipate what's coming – while hoping for something noteworthy.
The White Papers accurately describe the military/political threats to Japan. And for some years now, the White Papers have explicitly declared the People's Republic of China as the main problem.
Also, in recent years, the White Papers have expressed concern over Chinese and Russian military cooperation and activities ー in the region and around Japan.
Taiwan will get a mention as a potential flash point, threatening Japan's and regional security. But there will be no specific mention of Japanese support to improve Taiwan's defenses.
That's left up to the United States ー although Japan's aid to the Philippines (that will be mentioned in the White Paper) is intended to contribute to Taiwan's defense.
When it comes to Taiwan, Tokyo is leaving the hard work up to the Americans. It would be nice if the White Paper says otherwise.
What To Do About It?
Although the White Papers competently lay out the threats facing Japan, they come up short on the 'what to do about it' front.
It's not that they don't try.
However, typically, White Papers call for buying some of this and some of that ー as if buying more and specific hardware will solve Japan's defense problems and frighten off enemies.
There will be some more ships and more aircraft on order. Also, in recent years, its long-range missiles have been the big thing. This is the so-called ‘counterstrike capability' that is the panacea for Japan's defense.
The White Paper needs to ー but probably won't ー describe a comprehensive, coherent plan for Japan's defense. That would include proper and adequate hardware, more personnel, better force organization, command and control, funding, war stocks, reserve force, logistics, casualty handling, ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), etc. Those are all things that make the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) more, rather than less, of the sum of its parts.
A Little Respect from the Ruling Class
And watch to see if the White Paper discusses how JSDF and United States forces will operate together more effectively — including combat operations? It probably won't, other than platitudes about Japan's new Joint Operations Command representing a sea change of some sort.
There will also be a discussion of improving the terms of service and living conditions of JSDF personnel, as there always is. It's well-intentioned, but it won't be drastic enough to solve JSDF's severe manpower problems.
What would? A huge pay increase. Much better housing. Decent pensions and something akin to the American GI Bill that offers lifetime benefits for veterans. And a little respect for JSDF personnel from Japan's ruling class would be nice.
Getting Long with Friendlies
The White Paper will also describe Japan's efforts to strengthen relationships with other friendly nations through formal agreements, exercises, and exchanges. These are positive developments ー especially given Japan's longtime refusal to do much on this score until recent years. But it's not enough to really bolster Japan's defense. The US military tie-up is still indispensable.
Japan's missile defense and space operations will get a mention ー and this is a true bright spot. Japan has quietly developed a real capability here.
Clearly Written, but Not Prepared for War
All in all, the successive White Papers are clearly written and accurately describe threats facing Japan. But the prescriptions are, overall, piecemeal and don't usefully address Japan's fundamental defense shortcomings.
Do everything in the White Paper, and Japan and the JSDF still wouldn't be able to fight a war ー or at least not very well.
Since the Ministry of Defense has no real experience in this, it would do well to consult with people who do..
Asking USINDOPACOM to send over a few good war planners would be a start.
And then White Papers might be more interesting.
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Author: Grant Newsham
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America. Find his articles on JAPAN Forward.
