Global Threat of an Africa Tilt in Russia and China's Favor

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Blessed with abundant natural resources and a rapidly growing population, Africa has been dubbed the "Final Growth Frontier." It is also a core region of the Global South, a group that is gaining more international clout, consisting of emerging and developing countries.

China and Russia are exerting influence in Africa by means of massive infrastructure investments and displays of military power. They are also actively supporting authoritarian regimes in some countries.

Japan, the United States, and Europe need to counter Russian and Chinese moves by helping African countries achieve democracy and economic development.

The Ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9) should be an opportunity to do just that. It will be held in Yokohama from August 20 to 22.

*Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 21. (©Xinhua via Kyodo)*

Countering Chinese, Russian Spheres of Influence

For more than 30 years, TICAD has served as a valuable diplomatic forum. Orchestrated by Japan, it is made up of both Japanese officials and leaders of African countries. Over three decades, Japan has built relationships of trust through assistance that prioritizes local needs and through countless people-to-people exchanges. It is time to make full use of that wealth of experience.

Trends in recent years in the Sahel region, located on the southern edge of the Sahara Desert, have been quite concerning. There have been a series of coups in the former French colonies of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. As a consequence, pro-Russian military-run regimes were established in those countries. These military governments have expelled troops from the former colonial power, France, as well as American forces that had been stationed on their territories.

Russia has intervened in conflicts and secured influence and valuable interests by using the notorious private mercenary outfit, the Wagner Group.

An African tilt in Russia's favor would be a threat to global peace and stability.

The United Nations General Assembly provides insight into this concern. In March 2022, only 28 of 54 African countries voted in favor of a resolution calling on Russia to desist from its invasion and withdraw its forces from Ukraine.

*Ministers held their own Tokyo International Conference on African Development in Tokyo in August 2024.*

For a 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific'

Meanwhile, China has used onerous financial loans and other strategies to pressure African countries to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Eswatini is now the only country on the continent that maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

China and Russia are clearly working hard to incorporate Africa into their spheres of influence. Despite that stark reality, the Trump administration has announced the suspension of USAID programs that provide grant aid to developing countries. That heightens concern that Africa's drift away from the US will accelerate.

That is all the more reason why Japan's role is so important. Japan's "free and open Indo-Pacific" initiative extends to the eastern coast of the African continent. TICAD is also an essential forum for realizing this vision. The spread of democracy and the rule of law, and the elimination of strong-armed rule and corruption, would lead to stability and development in Africa.

Japan and Africa are natural partners. We look to both public and private efforts to realize mutual prosperity for Japan and Africa.