LDP headquarters in Nagatacho, Tokyo, September 8.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's announcement on September 7 that he will resign has thrown the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) into a full-scale leadership struggle. With the party confirming that the upcoming emergency presidential election will be conducted in an all-member ballot, both lawmakers and rank-and-file members will have a vote. The contest is shaping into a high-stakes clash between two of the most prominent figures in Japanese politics: former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi and Minister of Agriculture Shinjiro Koizumi.
A Changed Playing Field
In the immediate wake of Ishiba's departure, several heavyweights declared or hinted at their candidacy, including former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. Yet analysts broadly agree that the real energy of the election lies with Takaichi and Koizumi. Both consistently rank near the top of public opinion polls, and both represent sharply different futures for the party.
On a September 8 internet news program, political commentator Fumito Ishibashi noted that the decision to hold a full-member ballot fundamentally alters the balance of power. In the previous leadership race, Takaichi topped the first-round vote with strong grassroots backing but lost in a run-off against Ishiba, who prevailed thanks to parliamentary votes.
"Takaichi benefits from a system where party members play a major role," Ishibashi explained, while warning that the decline in overall party membership could make her path less straightforward this time.
Speaking on his YouTube channel on September 8, economic commentator Takaaki Mitsuhashi also emphasized the importance of the election format. "If it were left to just the Diet members, Koizumi would almost certainly win," he argued. "But with a full-member ballot, it's unpredictable. Party members may tip the scales toward Takaichi."
Koizumi's Appeal and Risks
Koizumi enters the race with a famous political surname, youthful energy, and a reputation as a reformist. He has expressed strong interest in regulatory reform, particularly in labor markets. And he has consistently framed himself as a candidate who can bring generational change to the LDP. His allies argue that he is the only figure capable of reconnecting the party with younger and more urban voters.
Still, critics question Koizumi's depth. Mitsuhashi observed that Koizumi's communication style and policy details often falter under scrutiny. "Put him in a debate and he shows his limitations quickly," he said, warning that a Koizumi-led LDP could see an initial bump in popularity followed by a rapid decline.
Ishibashi added that Koizumi has struggled to win support among traditional LDP power blocs such as agricultural cooperatives and postmasters. That leaves him reliant on urban enthusiasm that may not translate into durable votes.
Takaichi's Conservative Platform
Takaichi, by contrast, has firmly positioned herself as the standard-bearer of the conservative wing. A close ally of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she advocates expansionary fiscal policy, a strong defense posture, and reaffirmation of traditional values. Her previous campaign slogan, "all in on economic growth, "helped consolidate her grassroots appeal, particularly in urban areas disillusioned with Fumio Kishida's leadership.
Mitsuhashi openly declared his support for her candidacy, calling her the best option despite his own reservations about the LDP as a whole. "If I had to choose, it should be Takaichi," he said. Ishibashi echoed this, suggesting that uniting Takaichi's camp with other conservative factions such as former Minister Takayuki Kobayashi could form a strong counterweight to Koizumi.
Still, challenges loom. Many in the media are expected to turn aggressively critical if she becomes the leader. Mitsuhashi predicted "an all-out media campaign against Takaichi," warning that this could depress approval ratings even if she successfully takes the helm.
The Role of Party Elders
Behind the duel between Koizumi and Takaichi lies the influence of veteran powerbrokers. Ishibashi pointed in particular to former Prime Minister Taro Aso as a potential kingmaker. Aso, long regarded as a guardian of conservative causes within the LDP, could tilt the balance depending on which candidate he throws his weight behind. His support is seen as crucial for consolidating fragmented conservative forces into a unified front.
Mitsuhashi also highlighted the intervention of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who, together with Koizumi, reportedly pressured Ishiba into resigning rather than face an embarrassing intraparty showdown.
Policy and Market Expectations
Financial markets responded positively to Ishiba's departure, with the TOPIX index hitting record highs on September 8 on hopes that the next leader will embrace expansionary policies.
Analysts say both Koizumi and Takaichi favor growth-oriented economic strategies, but their emphases differ. Koizumi prioritizes regulatory reform, particularly within the labor market, while Takaichi focuses on fiscal stimulus, reform, and national security investments.
The market's optimism also reflects anticipation of change. "Whether it's Japan's first female prime minister in Takaichi or a young reformist in Koizumi, investors expect a break from stagnation," said Kohei Onishi, senior strategist at MUFG Morgan Stanley Securities.
A Party Searching for Renewal
Local LDP chapters are making clear what they expect from the next leader. In Nara, one official said, "We need someone who can win back the conservatives who have drifted away from the party" and handle security, the economy, and constitutional reform "in a well-balanced manner."
A Hyogo official warned, "The LDP has come to be seen as leaning left. We need a party conservatives can trust," while an Osaka representative urged, "We want a leader who can unify and rebuild the party." One Kyoto party executive stressed that, after crushing electoral defeats, "a leader who can analyze the reasons and show the public a reformed LDP is needed."
Whether Koizumi or Takaichi emerges, the next LDP president will be judged by how well they answer these calls from the grassroots.
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Author: Daniel Manning
