Can Nepal Find Stability After the Upheaval?

What began as a youth-led protest in early September quickly escalated into Nepal's most turbulent political crisis in years. By the time calm returned to Kathmandu, dozens had been killed, hundreds injured, and key infrastructure lay in ruins.

Decades of frustration over corruption, unemployment, and a government-imposed social media ban erupted into unrest that ultimately forced Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to step down.

In Oli's place, Sushila Karki — Nepal's first female chief justice and a rare figure admired for her integrity — has been appointed interim leader. Her elevation has brought a brief surge of public confidence. But Karki's mandate remains fragile as the country grapples with restoring order and trust in its institutions.

JAPAN Forward recently spoke with Dr Satoru Nagao, a regional expert and non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute, for deeper insights.

Excerpts follow.

What made the social media ban on September 4 such a flashpoint for ordinary Nepalis?

Although the social media ban was lifted quickly, its impact was far-reaching. In developing countries like Nepal, social media platforms are not just tools for communication — even for making phone calls — but vital lifelines for income and daily survival.

Moreover, Nepal's traditional media landscape remains tightly constrained, often echoing government narratives or avoiding politically sensitive topics. In contrast, social media provides a far broader spectrum of voices and perspectives.

For citizens who already harbor deep mistrust toward the establishment, media bias and restrictions on social media based on superficial reasons only reinforced their belief that the system is stacked against them.

What underlying factors explain the intensity of the backlash against the government?

Several underlying factors explain why the government's recent actions have provoked such a strong backlash. Having been elected into office several times, Prime Minister Oli found himself judged against his own record. And the comparison was not always flattering.

Adding to the discontent is Nepal's chronic political instability, marked by frequent government reshuffles and fragile coalitions. These dynamics have steadily eroded public trust. Meanwhile, persistent whispers of corruption and waste have further deepened public cynicism.

Paradoxically, Nepal's recent economic growth has also stirred unrest. The IMF projects about 5% growth in 2025, but prosperity often cuts both ways.

When those who live near you advance more rapidly, envy and resentment follow. Rising expectations, coupled with uneven access to opportunity, have turned optimism into growing frustration.

How does Nepal's crisis compare with recent political upheavals in the region?

Take Bangladesh, for example. The ousted Hasina government, by most measures, was a stronger and more stable administration. Sri Lanka under the Rajapaksas likewise projected strength, at least until its dramatic collapse.

Yet common threads run through these stories. Economic growth, while welcome, often breeds volatility. And in each of these countries, young people make up over a quarter of the population — a demographic that makes politics inherently combustible. After all, energy unchanneled eventually explodes.

The key, of course, is jobs. High youth unemployment is the clearest warning sign of unrest. Even India, arguably the region's most stable state, is grappling with this challenge.

What does the future hold for Nepal's political stability?

Geography shapes much of Nepal's destiny. Sandwiched between India and China, it inevitably becomes a stage for their rivalry. 

Yet the terrain favors the south: the Himalayas block easy access to China, while trade, travel, and daily life flow naturally toward India. Despite talk of balancing between the giants, Nepal's dependence on India is built into the landscape. 

Efforts to pivot toward China, in an attempt to escape Delhi's shadow, have therefore repeatedly faltered, along with successive governments.

The priority, then, is to establish a stable government. And the prerequisite for stability is clear. Maintaining a functional relationship with India. Only on that foundation can Nepal foster economic growth and harness the restless energy of its youth, turning potential upheaval into opportunity.

For now, many young Nepalese work abroad, not necessarily from lack of ambition, but because opportunities at home are scarce. A third of the country's GDP comes from personal remittances. 

But the potential exists. What's missing is a system capable of channeling it. 

In what ways could the situation affect Japan's engagement with South Asia?

Nepal wields little direct influence over Japan. Any impact would likely stem from how changes in the India-China power balance affect Japan's Indo-Pacific strategy or its stance toward the region. 

For example, Nepal's alignment in the regional contest could matter if China gradually extends its influence in Kathmandu. How then would Japan and India respond, and to what extent are they ready to take actions to mitigate Beijing's influence? 

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• Bangladesh in Motion: Building New Bridges for a Shared Future 

Author: Kenji Yoshida