Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks to business leaders from around the world at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the April 28. (©Kyodo)
A new report from the Taiwan-based Doublethink Lab outlines how China is deploying coordinated information operations, narrative manipulation, and psychological warfare as core elements of its influence arsenal.
In East Asia, where geopolitical tensions already run close to the surface, this contest has become a defining feature of the strategic landscape.
Japan is no exception. As the latest row between Tokyo and Beijing illustrates, even measured remarks by the Japanese prime minister over a Taiwan contingency can be seized upon, magnified, and turned into a broader disinformation campaign.
Min Hsuan Wu, co-founder and CEO of Doublethink Lab, says that democracies will need to brace for even more sustained efforts by China to divide like-minded partners. He expanded on these findings in an interview with JAPAN Forward.
Excerpts Follow.
How does China's cognitive warfare strategy differ across its neighboring countries?
Against Taiwan, China's cognitive campaign is far more aggressive and overt, from threats to sovereignty and direct interference in elections to sustained information operations. Beijing officials also openly raise the Taiwan issue in their diplomatic engagements with other countries, asserting it as a non-negotiable matter.
In South Korea, by contrast, the influence efforts are more subtle and strategic. They rely heavily on economic leverage, coordinated online manipulation, and the mobilization of segments of the local Chinese diaspora network. The overarching objective is to ensure Seoul remains attentive to Beijing's security interests and does not drift too deeply into Washington's orbit.
While some tactics overlap with those used in South Korea, the campaign targeting Japan has a distinct focus on shaping elite opinion in academia, politics, and business through soft power tools and United Front networks.
But as seen in Beijing's recent measures following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan, administrative retaliation can also be direct when China deems its red lines crossed.
What does the China Index show about Japan's exposure?
Japan ranks in the mid-range of Doublethink Lab's 2024 China Index, so overall, it's far from among the most-impacted countries.
Yet Japan ranks first in the "pressure" score among all 101 countries. Even if Tokyo resists full alignment, Beijing can leverage its networks and resources to exert pressure on institutions or key actors, shaping the target country's behavior.
A domain-specific analysis shows Japan's vulnerabilities across society, technology, and law enforcement, including Chinese-affiliated cultural organizations, tech partnerships, academic exchanges, and cases of legal or informational pressure.
Meanwhile, China exerts relatively lower influence in the economic, media, and military domains.
Given the ongoing tensions between Tokyo and Beijing, how might China escalate its cognitive and influence operations?
Beijing will likely continue attempts to undermine the new Japanese prime minister's authority and instill fear within Japanese society.
China's core position is that matters concerning Taiwan are internal business and not to be interfered with. Any comment or action Beijing perceives as challenging this principle will therefore likely be met with some form of retaliation.
In the cognitive domain, this could also mean undermining Western democracy or regional alliances with the United States to sow discord.
China's United Front Work operates under the concept of "unite and divide" and will seek to portray Tokyo as a troublemaker and cast anyone supporting it as an enemy.
What are the real-world security implications?
Ultimately, China seeks to ensure that its neighboring countries do not assist the US military in the event of a potential Taiwan contingency, whether it involves a full-scale invasion or a blockade.
Such a narrative framework is designed to persuade audiences in South Korea and Japan that a Taiwan contingency is not their responsibility.
The underlying message is that committing forces to support the US military would only squander their taxpayers’ blood and money without a meaningful purpose
What indicators should be monitored as the PLA expands its cognitive warfare capabilities?
One key development to watch is the People's Liberation Army's strengthening of its cognitive warfare command, also known as "command of the brain."
Beyond information campaigns, their objective is to reshape, distort, or manipulate cognition itself — that is, how individuals and societies perceive events, interpret history, form identity, and maintain social cohesion. The goal is to influence behavior, undermine institutions, and alter political or strategic outcomes without relying on kinetic force.
Given this trajectory, Japan, Taiwan, and other democracies will need to develop more effective countermeasures and ensure they earmark sufficient resources for them.
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
