Weathering China: Can Japan Handle the Travel Advisory?

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It's been more than two weeks since the Chinese government urged its citizens not to travel to Japan, following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on a potential Taiwan contingency.

The travel advisory has prompted some group tour cancellations, but related industries in Japan have largely remained calm. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese visitors are steadily progressing.

The Kansai region, which attracts a large share of Chinese tourists, has seen the most noticeable impact. According to the Osaka Convention & Tourism Bureau, 50–70% of Chinese bookings at roughly 20 hotels in Osaka have been cancelled through the end of December.

By contrast, many hotel operators in Tokyo report that "there has been no significant impact so far," indicating clear regional differences in the fallout.

Hotels Brace for Spring Festival

The short-term impact is unavoidable. Of particular concern is the anticipated slump during next February's Spring Festival, which coincides with the Chinese Lunar New Year.

"The Spring Festival sales period will be challenging," says aviation and travel analyst Kotaro Toriumi. "The impact is likely to extend into the spring, and a full recovery is unlikely for at least six months to a year."

After rising sharply, hotel prices have begun to ease in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Reflecting on that, Toriumi believes "urban areas can expect some relief from overtourism and a rebound in Japanese travelers."

Still, he cautions that these gains "will not make up for the losses expected during the Spring Festival period."

*Foreign visitors walk through the busy Minami entertainment district in Osaka on the afternoon of November 30. (©Sankei by Hirofumi Kakihira)*

Managing the China Risk

The key, therefore, is reducing Japan's dependence on the Chinese market.

According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, Japan welcomed over 35.54 million visitors between January and October. China remained the largest source of inbound tourists at roughly 23%. However, while it's still the top share, it has fallen from about 30% in 2019.

In October alone, 13 countries and regions, including South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States, recorded their highest visitor numbers to Japan. The Middle East saw a 33.8% increase compared with the same month in 2024, while Germany posted a 29.2% rise.

Chinese tourists are slowly vanishing from major sightseeing sites following Beijing's travel advisory. Yet many hotels and restaurants that depend on inbound visitors are navigating the situation without significant disruptions.

One major reason is that their customer base has broadened to include travelers from Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia, helping to mitigate the "China risk" that has disproportionately affected the tourism sector.

Adapting to a Changing Crowd

Kai Iwasaki, a rickshaw driver stationed in front of Asakusa's Kaminarimon, says the Chinese tourists who once made up roughly 30% of his customers have virtually disappeared.

Although he does not speak Chinese, he is adept at serving visitors in English. "I'm putting more focus on travelers from Europe, America, and Southeast Asia, but earnings haven't really changed," he says.

Yuka Mitsuhashi, who works at the popular sweet shop Oimoyasan Koushin, says, "Until recently, most of our customers were Chinese, but lately we've been seeing more visitors from South Korea, Europe, and the US."

*Kaminarimon Street in Asakusa is bustling with tourists — June 27 afternoon, Taito Ward, Tokyo. (©Sankei by Rei Yamamoto)*

Even with fewer Chinese customers, lines still form, thanks to visitors from other countries and school excursion groups, she adds.

A 23-year-old part-time worker at the street food stall Asakusa Menchi echoed this sentiment: "We have many tourists from Europe and America, so our sales remain largely unchanged."

Hotels Stay Resilient

Similar voices are emerging within the hospitality sector. Shun Minami, manager of the Banrai Hotel, says that even when Chinese guests cancel, the vacant rooms are quickly filled.

Since reports surfaced of the Chinese government advising its citizens to avoid travel to Japan, the number of Chinese guests has visibly declined. Even so, the hotel's main inbound clientele comes from the US and Australia. "There is no sense of crisis," Minami says.

*The Imperial Hotel in Uchisaiwaicho, Chiyoda ward, Tokyo.*

The Imperial Hotel Tokyo in Chiyoda Ward reported a few banquet cancellations but noted that "the impact is likely less than at other hotels."

Fujita Kanko, operator of Hotel Chinzanso and the Washington Hotel, also says "there has been no significant impact so far."

Chinese visitor numbers slowed during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the company explained that it has since expanded marketing to attract guests from Europe, the US, and Australia.

Authors: Atsushi Oda, The Sankei Shimbun

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