Naoyuki Agawa, former Japanese lawyer, diplomat, and professor of law at Keio University. (©Sankei)
It was in 1993 that Naoyuki Agawa published Do You Still Dislike America?
That was during Bill Clinton's presidency. Back then, Washington made little effort to disguise its desire for a stronger yen, even as that policy undercut Japan's industrial competitiveness. Bilateral trade tensions were at their most acute.
Two years earlier, a book titled The Coming War with Japan had been published in the United States and quickly translated into Japanese.
George Friedman, who later founded the intelligence firm Stratfor and became well known, was the author. The publication itself was a sensationalist work, written less to inform than to sell.
Such a book sold well because the mood at the time was warlike. In fact, a powerful bureaucrat at the Ministry of Finance who handled negotiations with his US counterpart became famous for speaking his mind bluntly, even to the Americans.
A Voice of Reason
It was at this moment, when more and more people were saying aloud, "The US is such a nasty country," that Agawa's book appeared.
Agawa argued that the relationship between Japan and the United States must be viewed over the long term. After all, the latter is Japan's ally, and in the end, only the Americans will come to Japan's defense.
The country's future, he insisted, should not be steered by petty sentiment.
Above all, the writing itself stood out. Its lyrical prose, threaded with moments of quiet feeling, suggested that a writer had finally emerged who could render Japan–US relations with genuine literary grace.
It's true that Agawa's slightly sentimental, easily moved nature often showed through. But it was precisely this quality that earned him such affection and admiration.
He unfortunately passed away in 2024 at the age of 73. His farewell gathering felt less like a funeral than a reunion — cheerful on the surface, yet marked by a deep, unspoken sense of loss.
Agawa in the Age of Trump
More recently, I find myself wishing Agawa were still here.
Would he have asked the same rhetorical question in response to the America that produced President Donald Trump and his administration — "Do you still hate America?" And would he, once again, have urged Japan to respond calmly and coolly?
Many assumed that a second Trump administration would raise its banner clearly and confront China head-on.
Surely, the United States would not relinquish its hegemony so easily. Seeing Washington as finally mounting a counteroffensive, I found myself willing to look past its heavy-handed use of tariffs against allies.
The secretary of state, the secretary of defense, and the under secretary of defense for policy at the Department of Defense — or rather, the War Department — were expected to form a lineup capable of suppressing Beijing and winning the decisive battle of the century.
The G2 and Japan Left Hanging
Lately, though, it seems Japan is being left hanging.
The Chinese leader reportedly spent more than half of a lengthy phone call with President Trump criticizing Japan. Trump, on such occasions, appears to lack any reliable standards.
Had he possessed them, Trump might have let Xi Jinping rant for a moment before replying, "All right, I get it. You're an important partner — but Japan is an ally. Keep that in mind."
But he didn't. Why? The answer is not hard to infer. As the President himself has suggested on social media, Trump appears to believe that only he and Xi, the G2, matter.
The logic appears simple: we will handle things between us, and everyone else should remain quiet.
When Trump hears the word alliance, what seems to come to mind is not an abstract contest between systems. Rather, it's a sense of others who, in his view, have been cheating and skimming benefits from the United States.
Then again, I imagine Agawa saying something like this: "It might have been different when [Shinzo] Abe was here. But can you change the present circumstances? You can complain all you like. Yet if Japan were to sever its ties with the US, could it really manage that?"
Between Strategy and Survival
Ultimately, the only way forward is to avoid being consumed by short-term concerns and to cultivate a longer-term perspective.
That requires steadily strengthening one's own capabilities while persistently making reasoned arguments to President Trump.
First, if Taiwan were to fall under the rule of the Chinese Communist Party, Beijing, driven by a fervent desire to erase the grievances of the modern era, would turn next to Okinawa.
For US ships and aircraft stationed around the Japanese archipelago, the operational threshold beyond Taiwan would rise sharply. If American military bases in Japan had stock prices, they would plunge.
Second, Beijing would likely seek to efface the Japanese language and historical memory by encouraging the mass migration of its own citizens and converting them into Japanese nationals.
In such a scenario, would the Imperial Family even be able to visit the Ise Shrine freely? This is the real meaning of Japan's so-called "existential crisis."
The Fight Must Go On
The first argument is likely to gain acceptance. But the latter, that China might one day dominate Japan and sinicize it, remains a claim that still needs to be advocated.
While maximizing synergies with the US military, Japan must work relentlessly to ensure that its scarce defense resources are spent in ways suited to the next form of warfare. One in which handheld munitions, not tanks, dominate, and in which everything that flies or dives is a drone.
China has grown increasingly vocal in the international English-language media lately.
I am a veteran myself, and I continue to fight each day. And I hope to see more comrades-in-arms join the effort.
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Author: Tomohiko Taniguchi, Special Advisor to Fujitsu FSC, Former Cabinet Secretariat Advisor
(Read this in Japanese)
