Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi attending a Cabinet meeting (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna)
When will the Lower House be dissolved for a general election? No matter how many New Year's come and go, the question remains at the heart of political life in Nagatacho. In 2026, speculation is bound to intensify, alongside relentless maneuvering behind the scenes.
Former Prime Minister Eisaku Sato once observed, "The more a prime minister reshuffles the cabinet, the more power diminishes, and the more the Diet is dissolved, the more it rises."
How will Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi approach the timing of a lower house dissolution as she seeks secure, long-term governance?
Budget First, Battles Next?
At a policy meeting of the ruling coalition on December 25, 2025, Takaichi said she would "aim for the prompt passage" of the initial Fiscal Year 2026 budget and related legislation.
On the same day, the government informed Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) executives of plans to convene the 2026 ordinary Diet session on January 23. Barring an extension, the session is scheduled to run for 150 days, until June 21.
During the regular Diet session, lawmakers will deliberate on the FY 2026 budget proposal. It is the largest on record at ¥122.3 trillion JPY (about $782 billion USD). Once the budget is passed, several major bills are expected to move to the forefront, many of them likely to face stiff resistance from opposition parties.
These include legislation to reduce the number of seats in the Lower House, as stipulated in its coalition agreement with Ishin no Kai (Ishin). Also on the agenda are bills to establish a new national intelligence agency and to expand the use of maiden names for married women.
Timing, Not Momentum
To overcome potential opposition, some observers initially speculated that the Prime Minister, buoyed by high Cabinet approval ratings, might opt to dissolve the Diet and call an early general election.
The idea would be to restore the ruling party's strength in the Lower House before convening the regular Diet session.
However, with the session now set to open on January 23, the prospect of an early dissolution and general election has all but disappeared. This brings several other options to the fore.
One possible window would be early spring, immediately after the planned budget is passed. However, the prevailing view is that such a move would be difficult, as key legislation prioritized by the Prime Minister and Ishin would remain unfinished by then.
A second option is dissolution at the close of the Diet session on June 21. Much will hinge on the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). "If the CDP submits a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet, the Prime Minister would be able to dissolve the Diet in accordance with the Constitution," one government official noted.
In 2025, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda refrained from submitting a no-confidence motion during an extraordinary Diet session. Explaining his decision, he said, "I believe it would be premature to make an assessment at this stage, just two months into the Prime Minister's tenure. It's not yet time to evaluate achievements and shortcomings."
The Opposition's Dilemma
This ordinary Diet session, however, presents a different picture. A series of bills fundamentally at odds with the CDP's positions is set for deliberation, creating an opportunity for the opposition to deliver a clear "no" to the Takaichi Cabinet through a no-confidence motion.
The major uncertainty lies in the CDP's low level of public support. Opinion polls by various media outlets show its approval ratings stagnating, with particularly weak backing among younger voters and the working-age population.
Under these circumstances, submitting a no-confidence motion that could trigger a snap election carries the risk of losing a significant number of seats.
On this question, Noda has said, "This is not a time to wield the bamboo sword as before. When it is time to strike, it must cut cleanly," arguing that a no-confidence motion should be submitted only on the premise that it could pass.
In the current Lower House, the ruling coalition holds a narrow majority, making passage uncertain. To that end, the submission of a no-confidence motion would likely be postponed on purely numerical grounds.
Playing the Long Game
The Prime Minister has numerous opportunities to dissolve the Diet and call a general election. Yet the most likely timing appears to be just before the end of the 2027 regular Diet session. That would also be shortly before the expiration of Takaichi's term as party president.
Takaichi has long maintained that policy implementation is her top priority. "She has no interest in an early dissolution and general election to begin with," one senior government official said.
The initial budget proposal for fiscal year 2027 will be the first in which the Prime Minister is involved from the outset. Officials close to the Prime Minister's Office say Takaichi is already deeply engaged in shaping the basic policy that will define its overall framework.
Her goal is to finalize the budget proposal along with key pieces of legislation she has personally crafted, thereby laying a firm foundation for reelection in the September 2027 LDP presidential race.
According to a senior government official, the point at which these two objectives converge would mark the optimal moment to dissolve the Diet and call a general election.
Risks of Perfect Timing
Nonetheless, history offers a cautionary note. As seen under the administrations of Taro Aso and Yoshihide Suga, there have been numerous cases in which leaders, after delivering policy results, moved to dissolve the Diet and call a general election. In the end, those calculations unraveled, forcing them to step down.
By October 2026, the four-year term of Lower House members will reach its midpoint, and the political atmosphere will abruptly shift toward preparations for the next general election.
Weighing achievements against the right moment, the Prime Minister will prepare to stake everything on a decisive gamble.
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Author: Koya Chida, The Sankei Shimbun
(Read this in Japanese)
