Okinawa, the Island Bulwark in China's Shadow

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Okinawa, alongside Taiwan, has emerged as a bulwark of democracy in East Asia. But as China speaks more openly about its territorial ambitions toward Okinawa, Japan can no longer afford to treat Taiwan as a mere strategic buffer. The security of both is now deeply intertwined. 

The trigger was Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's parliamentary response on November 7, 2025, regarding a potential contingency surrounding Taiwan. Beijing responded with fierce opposition and implemented a series of retaliatory measures against Japan.

China Targets Okinawa

On December 12, Chinese and Russian military bombers converged over the East China Sea and passed through the Miyako Strait. They then advanced into the Pacific before turning northeast and operating off the coast of Shikoku.

An official from the People's Liberation Army National Defense University in China told Hong Kong's Phoenix TV that the flight "encircled the Ryukyu Islands," Kyodo News reported. The official went on to say that China has "entered a stage where we must confront and resolve the historically lingering Ryukyu issue."

From December 6 to 12, 2025, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning transited between Okinawa and Miyako Island en route to the Pacific Ocean. On the 6th, fighter jets launched from the carrier dangerously locked their radar onto Japan Air Self-Defense Force aircraft that had been scrambled to monitor the group.

At the same time, Chinese media have intensified propaganda suggesting that Okinawa did not historically belong to Japan. Even before the Prime Minister's remarks, Beijing's representative at the United Nations had already begun referring to Okinawan residents as "indigenous people." 

Given this trajectory, it may only be a matter of time before claims arise that Ryukyu was originally Chinese territory.

Okinawa in the Crosshairs

In fact, China's moves targeting Okinawa predate Takaichi's parliamentary response. Her remarks were merely used as a pretext for Beijing to fully unleash an information warfare campaign it had long been preparing.

Propaganda that deliberately obscures Japan's sovereignty over Okinawa may foreshadow a Chinese strategy to strike Okinawa simultaneously with an invasion of Taiwan. 

In such a scenario, Beijing would likely justify its actions internationally as an effort to "reclaim the Ryukyu Islands" or "liberate the Ryukyu people," portraying them as indigenous inhabitants suffering discrimination under Japanese rule.

Some critics have labeled the Prime Minister's Diet comments as reckless. But it was Takaichi's remarks that exposed China's true character as a 21st-century aggressor to the global community. Viewed in that light, her response was anything but careless — it was a masterstroke.

Had a China-friendly administration been in power in Tokyo, the crisis in Okinawa might have festered beneath the surface, growing unchecked until it was too late to address.

Local Silence, Rising Risk

At this juncture, Okinawa is fortunate to be under a Takaichi administration. With the prefectural government in Okinawa dominated by the All Okinawa camp — one that neither confronts nor even criticizes China — the importance of a resolute national posture has never been clearer.

Governor Denny Tamaki of Okinawa has remained tight-lipped on China's unilateral claim that the prefecture's residents are indigenous peoples. "We have never discussed this within the prefectural government, and I have nothing to say," he stated. 

He has similarly brushed off Chinese media propaganda questioning Okinawa's status as part of Japan, calling them "the opinions of companies and individuals" and declining to treat them as a serious matter.

Major Okinawan media outlets have joined in urging concessions to China. The Ryukyu Shimpo, for instance, argued that "the Japanese government must consider revising or even withdrawing its response."  

Even as Okinawa becomes a focal point of information warfare, some among the prefectural government and the media appear to have lost the will to resist Beijing.

One cannot help but wonder how deeply the prefectural government and Okinawa's major media outlets truly grasp the sense of urgency felt by those of us living in the Sakishima Islands.

The Reality of a Contingency

Under Tokyo's contingency plans, all residents of the Sakishima would be evacuated to Kyushu and Yamaguchi in the event of an emergency. That would mean leaving behind our work, our belongings, and our homes, with no certainty of return. 

For us, the concept of "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency" is not an abstraction. It's a lived truth.

What, then, if Takaichi were to walk back her remarks and declare that a Taiwan contingency is China's internal affair and has nothing to do with Japan? Beijing would no doubt welcome such a shift. 

For those of us in Okinawa and the nearby islands, however, it would mean being abandoned on the front line, left to watch as Taiwan, the bulwark of democracy, falls within sight.

Remaining silent may offer temporary safety. But judging from China's words and actions, Okinawa would only be postponing an outcome it will inevitably face in the not-too-distant future.

Deterrence on the Frontline

Therefore, Prime Minister Takaichi must not abandon the people of Okinawa, particularly those on the outlying islands. She must respond in a manner that is firm and justifiable. 

In parallel, Japan should cooperate with the international community to reinforce deterrence and, if necessary, prevent a Taiwan contingency through credible force.

China's ambitions, now openly baring their fangs toward Taiwan and Okinawa, have come into sharp relief with the birth of the Takaichi cabinet. 

Tokyo must be prepared for an information war over Okinawa that is likely to become protracted. Indeed, hasn't such a skirmish already begun around the Senkaku Islands?

RELATED:

• Defense of Okinawa Depends On the Self-Determination of Japan
• Now Okinawa, like Taiwan, is On the Frontline
• Expert: Why A Taiwan Contingency Won't Stay Just an Internal Matter 

Author: Makoto Nakashinjo, Editor-in-Chief of the Yaeyama Nippo

(Read this in Japanese)

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