Trump, Venezuela, and Tokyo's Constitutional Moment

Early in the new year, shockwaves rippled across the globe. In a dramatic operation, the United States military crippled Venezuela's air defense systems before sending troops into the capital, Caracas, by helicopter. President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were subsequently captured and flown to New York.

Just hours before the military operation, a ceremony in Venezuela attended by a Chinese diplomatic delegation was broadcast on Chinese and Russian state television. 

Shortly afterward, Maduro was detained by American forces. Images showing him being transported with his eyes covered were later posted on President Donald Trump's social media accounts. Everything unfolded like a spectacle in a Hollywood film.

Venezuela had installed Russian air defense systems, yet they proved utterly powerless against the US military strikes, and the country's leader was swiftly detained. 

For other anti-American nations in Latin America that rely on similar air defense systems, the episode was deeply unsettling. Even with apparent Chinese support, Venezuela was helpless in the face of the overwhelming American military operation.

From Oil to Indictment

Venezuela, one of the world's leading oil-producing nations, experienced a surge of major US oil companies entering the country in the 1980s. However, following the rise of the anti-American Hugo Chavez administration in 1999 and the nationalization of the oil industry in 2007, those companies withdrew one after another.

Washington, as a result, adopted a hostile stance toward Chavez and its successor, Maduro, imposing harsh sanctions. And more recently, it pressed the latter to step down.

Since September 2025, the Trump administration has continued to target vessels suspected of transporting illegal drugs such as fentanyl and cocaine into the US. Washington has designated these substances as "weapons of mass destruction." 

The US has also strengthened its military presence in the region, including the deployment of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford to the Caribbean Sea north of Venezuela.

Maduro now faces charges in US courts for crimes including conspiracy to commit drug terrorism. He has pleaded not guilty, claiming he was "kidnapped." 

America's Backyard Politics

From Washington's perspective, the move would likely be framed as the recovery of what Venezuela took through oil nationalization. As for Maduro's detention, the Trump administration would probably argue that it simply arrested a "criminal" operating in its own backyard.

Simultaneously, China was drawing closer to Venezuela, emerging as a major buyer of the country's oil. In that sense, the US attack on Venezuela can also be seen as countering Chinese influence in the region. 

The Trump administration has other strategic interests because other anti-American nations depend on Venezuelan oil.

With the Trump administration signaling its willingness to intervene in Venezuela's governance, the issue is likely to be on the agenda at the US–China summit scheduled for April.

The End of Legal Illusions

Some argue that, as a matter of principle, the United Nations Charter prohibits the threat or use of force. From this perspective, they say the recent US military operation is unjustifiable and raises concerns about violations of international law.

In Japan's legacy media, it's also not uncommon to see reports that list criticisms from China and Russia against the latest Venezuela gambit while failing to emphasize European support for it.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, for her part, stated on X on January 4, "We will advance diplomatic efforts toward restoring democracy and stabilizing the situation in Venezuela."

As some have pointed out, this avoids direct commentary on US military operations. However, by invoking the "restoration of democracy" through the removal of a strongman, the statement can be read as de facto support for the United States. 

In times of crisis, allies should support one another unconditionally — and be supported in return — rather than quibbling over legal technicalities.

Given that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's domination of the South China Sea have proceeded with complete disregard for international law, it could be argued that Washington has exercised restraint thus far.

In any case, the foundations of the rule of law and the United Nations have crumbled, leaving them hollow. That is the reality of the world we live in today. 

Taiwan Is Not Venezuela

As noted earlier, Venezuela lies in what the US considers its backyard. To that end, the US likely acted to remove what it saw as undesirable elements from its neighborhood.

One could contend that such logic provides China with a pretext to invade Taiwan under the banner of reunification. Yet Taiwan is not China's backyard. It's, in effect, in America's. As long as it falls within the reach of US military power, the situation is fundamentally different. 

More crucially, Venezuela is a dictatorship, whereas Taiwan is a democracy.

If China were to invade Taiwan while disregarding the upcoming US–China summit, President Xi Jinping would have to be prepared to make a serious sacrifice.

The latest Venezuela incident demonstrates how a dictatorship can collapse in the blink of an eye once its leader is captured. 

China, Russia, and North Korea are likely to fear the unpredictability of President Trump. Given that Russia's air defense systems proved ineffective in Venezuela, the prospect of a decapitation strike against North Korea has also suddenly come to seem real.

The 'Donroe Doctrine' 

That said, as a proponent of a "Donroe Doctrine," rather than the traditional Monroe Doctrine, Trump is expected to pursue a policy of non-intervention in Europe and Asia. 

He, therefore, may be placing his hopes on Japan's role in Asia.

Underpinning this is the Japan–US alliance. Whether Japan, constrained by its constitution, can deliver what Trump expects in the event of an Asia contingency remains to be seen. This issue is expected to be discussed at the next Japan–US summit.

At this juncture, it would be wise to leverage American pressure to push the discussion toward Japan's constitutional revision. Trump and his team will likely calculate that only a Takaichi government could pull this off.

RELATED:

• How Trump Outplayed China in Venezuela 
• Trump's Venezuela Strike and Its Implications for China and Japan
• The UN Must Reform or Go Obsolete

Author: Yoichi Takahashi, professor at Kaetsu University and former special advisor to the Cabinet

(Read this in Japanese)