Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top officials attend the fourth plenum of the 20th Communist Party Congress in October 2025 in Beijing. (©Xinhua via Kyodo)
In the labyrinth of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics, loyalty is currency and suspicion the norm. Therefore, the sudden downfall of General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and Xi Jinping's once-trusted ally, has sent shockwaves through China and across the world.
Once hailed as a combat-hardened "princeling" with revolutionary bloodlines, Zhang's arrest marks a dramatic escalation in Xi's relentless purges. What began as whispers about his absence from key meetings quickly spiraled into allegations of coup plots, gunfights, and even nuclear secrets leaked to the United States.
While many believe this is the end of Zhang, others argue that the struggle remains unresolved. How should we understand this unprecedented event, and what might it bring for China and the world?
A Swift and Stunning Purge
The saga unfolded rapidly in mid-January 2026. Unverified reports first surfaced on January 20, alleging that Zhang Youxia, CMC Joint Staff Chief Liu Zhenli, and former CMC General Office Director Zhong Shaojun had been arrested, along with members of Zhang's family.
For several days, overseas Chinese communities heatedly debated the authenticity of the rumors. Some were even willing to bet Ұ5 million CNY (about $720,000 USD) on their accuracy. Overall, however, more people dismissed the claims, accusing those who spread them of being "bed-listeners" who relied on hearsay.
Then, on January 24, the CCP abruptly made it official through a terse Ministry of Defense statement: Zhang and Liu were under investigation for "serious violations of discipline and law." This unprecedented purge left only Xi and the newly promoted Zhang Shengmin standing in the seven-member CMC, a body Xi himself had handpicked just years earlier.
The shock was profound among China watchers. The immediate questions were obvious: How could this happen, and what were the real stories beneath the surface?
The Scene Inside
Insider accounts described a chaotic scene at Beijing's Jingxi Hotel on January 18, where Xi was reportedly staying. Advance teams loyal to Zhang allegedly clashed with Xi's security forces in a gunfight that killed nine guards and dozens of Zhang's operatives. Xi, tipped off two hours earlier, is said to have fled, turning the hotel into a trap. According to these sources, the plot was exposed through betrayal, with Zhang and Liu attempting to seize Xi under the banner of "saving the Party and the nation."
This, insiders insist, was no mere corruption case. It was a failed coup. Zhang, a battlefield veteran of the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War, maintained deep ties to CCP elders such as Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, who allegedly sought a "soft coup" to rein in Xi's excesses and return to Deng Xiaoping-era reforms. But hesitation proved fatal. Xi counterattacked, arresting the plotters and detaining more than 5,000 in Beijing alone.
Conflicting Narratives and Hidden Motives
Theories abound as to why Zhang, once Xi's confidant, turned against him or was framed. One prominent view holds that Xi's growing paranoia fueled endless purges, steadily eroding trust within the system. Zhang, with his powerful "red family" pedigree — his father a founding general alongside Xi's own — wielded influence that Xi both relied on and feared.
Rumors add further intrigue. One claim was that Xi faked illness to lure Zhang out. Another was that Xi's illegitimate son in Ningxia was being groomed for succession under a hereditary plan that Zhang vehemently opposed.
Procedurally, the arrest appeared to bypass CCP norms. No Politburo approval preceded the announcement, violating the so-called "CMC Chairman Responsibility System." Critics such as former Tiananmen leader Tang Baiqiao argue that this illegality has triggered backlash, with Zhang's family and subordinates demanding redress.
Du Wen, a former CCP official, describes a botched coup attempt: Zhang and Liu allegedly mobilized troops but were betrayed, prompting martial law-like measures — ammunition confiscated, phones seized, and compulsory "Xi Jinping Thought" study sessions imposed across the military.
Meanwhile, Wall Street Journal reports alleging that Zhang leaked nuclear secrets to the United States have been dismissed by analysts such as Cai Shenkun as CCP propaganda, funneled through Western media to legitimize the purge. "It's illogical," Cai argues. Zhang neither needed money nor US protection. Instead, the narrative resembles Mao-era smears designed to mobilize nationalist outrage against an alleged traitor.
Activist Sheng Xue's sources confirm armed resistance but emphasize that Xi's succession ambitions, not Taiwan tensions, were the core trigger.
Media Muzzle and Military Unease
Chinese state media's response has been eerily subdued, an anomaly given the magnitude of the event. Major outlets such as People's Daily buried the 96-character announcement at the bottom of their pages. Meanwhile, Xinhua and CCTV offered only minimal coverage. No editorials celebrated the purge as a triumph against corruption, as in previous cases.
This low-key treatment, wildly disproportionate to the event's gravity, suggests deep uncertainty. As one analyst put it, "The silence screams."
Military reactions, meanwhile, reveal acute anxiety. Level-1 combat readiness, frozen troop movements, and centralized phone storage all suggest that Xi fears mutiny. Theater commands reportedly restricted travel even for officers' families. One incident involving a Southern Theater Command officer's wife being denied boarding at an airport caused a public scene.
Videos circulating online show military vehicles being transported to Zhengzhou and Hangzhou, and highways leading into Beijing reportedly closed, hinting at reinforcements or countermeasures. Insiders describe "collective political study" sessions aimed at enforcing loyalty, but morale appears fractured.
Years of purges have hollowed out the People's Liberation Army, rewarding obedience over competence. With five of seven CMC members removed, the military increasingly resembles a "paper dragon," impressive on parade, fragile in war. A Taiwan invasion appears unlikely ー internal stabilization now outweighs external adventurism.
What This Means for China — and for the World
Zhang's downfall highlights the CCP's growing brittleness under Xi's rule. Domestically, it accelerates systemic decay: mutual distrust paralyzes decision-making, economic pressures deepen, and elite "red families" fracture. Xi's push toward dynastic power alienates party elders and raises the risk of broader revolt. If resistance is crushed, Xi may emerge more autocratic than ever, but if not, the CCP could fracture, echoing the Soviet collapse.
Globally, a destabilized PLA weakens Beijing's strategic posture. Taiwan gains breathing room as invasion capacity erodes. US–China tensions may ease temporarily, but unpredictability increases. Xi could lash out abroad to shore up domestic authority. Allies such as Russia and North Korea watch cautiously, while instability in Beijing threatens its Belt and Road ambitions.
Yet, as one observer warns, "Chaos in China could export turmoil," underscoring the need for vigilance in trade, technology, and security.
Moreover, concerns persist that large-scale purges may elevate younger generals or hardliners more fluent in modern warfare. If these officers feel compelled to prove themselves through rapid battlefield achievements, the threat to Taiwan could ultimately increase rather than diminish.
Possible Paths Forward: What Comes Next?
The Zhang affair remains unresolved, with his profile still lingering on official websites amid disputes over legality. One scenario is a swift anti-Xi counteroffensive that removes Xi and installs reformers or elder consensus figures. Another is prolonged delay, which favors Xi's consolidation of power, possibly even the dismantling of the CMC in favor of direct personal rule.
At present, insiders argue that Xi has failed to bring the situation fully under control. The arrest of Zhang Youxia has encountered resistance from multiple sides, and a third force appears to be emerging. Several senior elders may have formed an alliance aimed at confronting Xi Jinping.
Judging by reactions in Chinese media and society, this crisis is far from over. Both camps understand that this is a life-and-death struggle. The likelihood of chaos, or even internal conflict, may now outweigh that of "stability."
Should Xi ultimately prevail, China may well move further down the path toward a North Korea-style system.
End of the 'Mandate of Heaven'?
Historically, since the CCP seized power, China has endured repeated cycles of crisis, power struggle, consolidation, and renewed crisis. Zhang's downfall is merely the latest iteration.
This time, however, the context is different. The CCP appears to have exhausted what traditional thought calls the "Mandate of Heaven." Its legitimacy, economy, demographics, popular support, internal cohesion, and international environment are all deteriorating. In 2025, China's number of newborns fell to the lowest level since 1949, below even that of the Three-Year Great Famine, and dropped to levels last seen in 1738, when China's total population was only 150 million.
This points to one stark reality: young people in China have lost hope in the future, giving rise to the sentiment, "We are the last generation."
The downfall of Zhang Youxia, or more precisely, the showdown between Xi and Zhang, has occurred at this critical juncture. Whoever prevails, this may prove to be the final straw breaking the CCP's back.
The CCP's Cracked Façade
Zhang and the elders may have had a chance to remove Xi over the past two years, but they made a fatal miscalculation: trying to preserve the Party and its façade. They kept Xi afloat, hoping to replace him gradually and "smoothly."
Perhaps events have unfolded as they were meant to. From a higher perspective, the CCP's collapse may be inevitable. At the very least, more people now recognize that there is no path forward except ending the CCP itself.
As 2026 unfolds, Heaven's will, according to ancient wisdom, may defy Xi's grasp. No matter who wins, the CCP's façade has cracked, hastening its decline.
As the world watches to see whether the dragon will devour itself, it must decide whom to support, what kind of China would be better for the world, and how such a future might be brought about.
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Author: Jennifer Zeng
