Cabinet officials look on as PM Takaichi addresses a press conference on January 19. (©Prime Minister's Office)
Japan's February 8 Lower House election, in which the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured an unprecedented supermajority in the Diet, has transformed the country's domestic political landscape.
But the reverberations extend well beyond Tokyo. Across the Indo-Pacific, friends, allies, and even adversaries responded swiftly. In Washington and Taipei, the outcome was read as a vote for stability and resolve.
Neighboring Beijing reinforced long-standing suspicions about Japan's strategic trajectory, while Seoul's response, more restrained, reflected the carefully treaded pragmatism that now characterizes bilateral relations after periods of volatility.
Trump Signals Confidence
No foreign leader reacted more conspicuously than US President Donald Trump, who publicly endorsed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi just days before the election in a surprise social media post.
After the results were out on Sunday, Trump congratulated the Japanese leader, praising the "bold and wise" decision to call a snap election and wishing Takaichi "Great Success in passing your Conservative, Peace Through Strength Agenda."
William Chou, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute's Japan Chair, said beyond personal rapport, Trump's support reflected an expectation that a strengthened government in Tokyo would be able to follow through.
"Trump likes winners and results," he said. "There is also a political and practical reason — a strong Takaichi government means Japan can deliver on its promises."
With a commanding majority in the lower house, Takaichi now has greater latitude to pursue initiatives long constrained by factional politics. Chou pointed to expanded investment in strategic industrial and technology sectors, revisions to the Economic Security Promotion Act, higher defense spending, and the development of a new national security strategy.
"Voters have entrusted the prime minister to deliver real results and put Japan on a path toward long-term economic growth and geopolitical resilience," he said. "That will ultimately strengthen the US–Japan alliance."
Seoul's Measured Response
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung offered a brief but cordial message of congratulations, expressing hope that bilateral ties would "broaden and deepen based on trust and friendship."
His remarks came amid some local media reports stressing that the ruling party's legislative edge could accelerate Japan's military buildup and deepen debates over revising Article 9 of the constitution, a clause limiting the country's armed forces.
Choi Eunmi, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said Japan's internal political consolidation reduces near-term uncertainty in the relationship.
"The current stable trajectory of South Korea–Japan relations is likely to be sustained," she said. "Within Japan, South Korea is widely perceived as a cooperative and indispensable partner, and Japan's leadership is expected to recognize the practical imperatives of bilateral cooperation and manage the relationship accordingly."
Still, she cautioned that latent risks persist.
"Symbolic and politically sensitive issues such as historical disputes and territorial claims, shifts in defense policy and role expansion, and actions aimed at mobilizing Japan's domestic conservative base continue to pose risks to bilateral ties," she said.
Given Japan's expanding defense capabilities and regional role, she added, "prior consultation and transparent communication will be paramount."
China Pushes Back
Unlike South Korea, China's reaction was noticeably wary. Sunday's election campaign focused mainly on domestic issues but was equally shaped by debate over how Tokyo should manage what policymakers call "China risk" moving forward.
Beijing's top leadership avoided commenting on the election, but its Foreign Ministry warned Tokyo against "returning to militarism" and demanded that Takaichi retract what it called "erroneous" remarks on Taiwan.
In November, responding to a question from an opposition lawmaker, Takaichi stated that a potential Taiwan contingency could escalate into a situation threatening Japan's survival and might warrant countermeasures.
Since then, Beijing has imposed a series of economic measures, issued travel advisories against Japan, and increased military maneuvers in the waters surrounding the archipelago.
Taken together, these moves underscore the high stakes in Tokyo-Beijing relations. Political commentator Edo Naito argues that even if China dials back the rhetoric or modifies some of the economic weaponization, "it will not change anything."
Engagement with Beijing will certainly continue to avoid accidents and miscalculation, but Tokyo will "push back firmly when China provokes and crosses red lines," he said.
"Under Takaichi, Japan will move forward without constantly looking nervously over its shoulder at how Beijing chooses to react," he added.
Perception and Peril
In the wake of the election, discussions have also intensified over whether Takaichi's enhanced leverage will heighten tensions or temper the ongoing tit-for-tat with Beijing.
"China sees Japan as a recovering alcoholic, where the country could at any point fall into full-scale militarism like the past," said Daniel Sneider, a lecturer at Stanford University and East Asia expert. "This view isn't just propaganda — it is deeply held by many in China's leadership."
That perception has made Takaichi a particular target in Chinese political discourse. Yet Sneider cautioned against assuming that heightened rhetoric and actions will necessarily translate into escalation.
"Takaichi and Xi Jinping are both prisoners of their ideology, so the risk of miscalculation is real," he said. But citing the Abe era's rapprochement with China during his second term, he added that "both sides could be pragmatic if they chose to be."
The Taiwan Factor
Taiwan, of course, remains central to that calculation. In Taipei, President Lai Ching-te welcomed the election result as a reaffirmation of Japan's leadership and commitment to Indo-Pacific stability.
"May your victory bring a more prosperous and secure future for Japan and its partners in the region," Lai wrote in his social media post.
Despite sustained military pressure from China, both Taiwan and Japan have maintained a firm security posture. Tokyo has strengthened defenses in its southwestern islands, including missile deployments in Yonaguni, and accelerated procurement of advanced US systems as part of a broader effort to bolster deterrence.
With Takaichi seeking to expand Japan's self-defense capabilities at a scale not seen since the Abe era, Naito said Tokyo may increasingly assume a more proactive role — even with respect to Taiwan.
"This will require Japan to take the lead more," he said, but it will make abandonment by Washington very unlikely.
Robert Eldridge, a former associate political advisor for the US Marine Corps, says that while accelerating Japan's deterrence capabilities is commendable, military preparedness alone will not prevent a Taiwan conflict from cascading into a regional crisis.
"There are only about 12 countries that have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, so the deterrence against China isn't as strong as it should be," he said. "What the Takaichi administration needs to create is its own Taiwan Relations Act, so the impact of any Chinese strongarm move would be more significant."
Limits of the Power
Despite the scale of the ruling LDP's latest victory, some analysts say the Japanese prime minister's authority has its limits.
"Voters sent two somewhat contradictory signals," Sneider said. "They chose stability and safety, but they also want change." Fiscal constraints, a weak yen, and demographic pressures, he noted, will limit how far the country can move, particularly on defense.
Emanuel Pastreich, president of the Asia Institute, questioned whether Takaichi's mandate is as strong as it appears.
"I seriously doubt that she has much of a mandate," he said, arguing that bureaucratic inertia and broader global militarization trends will constrain Tokyo's future moves.
He added that with "the US itself quite fragmented and dysfunctional," the impact of Japan's shift may be reduced.
As Takaichi wields extraordinary legislative clout, Japan's allies and rivals alike are recalibrating their expectations. Whether her supermajority will anchor a new era of stable leadership — or intensify tensions at home and abroad — remains to be seen.
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
