China's Dongfeng-41 multi-warhead ICBM was on display in the October 2019 military parade held in Beijing to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC. (Xinhua via Kyodo)
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expired on February 5. It was the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia.
US President Donald Trump has called for broader talks. He contends that China, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, needs to be included within a new arms control regime.
Japan, too, cannot tolerate China continuing to expand its nuclear arms stockpile without restraint. Beijing should immediately agree to participate in such negotiations.
What Is New START?
New START came into effect in 2011 and was extended for another five years in 2021. The treaty limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads. It also restricts the number of nuclear delivery vehicles, such as strategic bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Moreover, it provides for mutual inspections and data exchanges.
Russia bears the greatest responsibility for the treaty's lapse. The Russian government under Vladimir Putin has made a series of nuclear threats since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It then suspended implementation of the New START treaty in 2023.
Trump allowed the lapse, saying the parties should aim for a "better deal." Trump's position that a framework to restrain China is also necessary is reasonable.
The United States and Russia each possess more than 5,000 nuclear warheads. Meanwhile, China claims to have only about 600. However, China is increasing production at an unprecedented rate, and it is widely estimated that the number of warheads in its possession will exceed 1,000 by 2030.
Pluses and Minuses
New START does not restrict tactical nuclear weapons. However, those are the types of nuclear weapons most likely to be employed on the battlefield. Russia has also been busy developing and deploying nuclear delivery vehicles not envisaged by the treaty. For example, nuclear-powered torpedoes and cruise missiles.
A highly effective nuclear arms control mechanism is seriously needed. China and Russia should adopt responsible stances regarding this effort.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has underpinned the postwar international order. However, it requires the five major nuclear-weapon states ー the US, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China ー to engage in good faith nuclear disarmament negotiations.
If a new framework to replace New START cannot be established, there are concerns that it could negatively impact the NPT regime.
Severe Security Environment
Japan faces an extremely severe security environment. It is in close geographical proximity to Russia, China, and North Korea. All three of those countries continue to develop nuclear weapons and missiles.
As the only country to have suffered atomic bombings during wartime, it is significant that Japan continues to advocate a "world without nuclear weapons" as the ultimate goal. However, the stark reality is that Japan relies on the US nuclear umbrella for its defense.
Whether or not there is a need to enhance the credibility of this "umbrella" will be a question the government must address. At that time, the Japanese people should not shy away from discussing a review of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.
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Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun
