A person walks past a house destroyed by a Russian drone in Zaporizhzhia, southern Ukraine. (©Getty/Kyodo)
February 24 marked four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. By January, the war's duration had already surpassed the 1,418-day struggle between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany during World War II.
Combined Russian and Ukrainian military casualties, including dead, wounded, and missing, are estimated at 1.8 million.
Even as ceasefire talks proceed under American mediation, fighting grinds on along the frontline and long-range strikes continue. Peace, for now, remains out of sight.
Depending on how the war ends, the post–Cold War "rules-based international order" could erode, giving way to a harsher system governed by the logic of might. For Japan, hemmed in by Russia, China, and North Korea, the stakes are hardly abstract.
Stalled Talks, Stalled Front
In peace talks brokered by the Donald Trump administration since May 2025, Russia has pressed for terms amounting to Ukrainian capitulation. This includes the handover of the eastern Donbas and Luhansk Oblasts that Moscow claims to have annexed.
Kyiv has rejected these demands. It has instead sought a negotiated settlement based on mutual concessions, such as a ceasefire along the current front lines.
Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Russia's numerical superiority is widely seen as conferring the advantage. Even so, Ukrainian troops have held their lines in eastern Donetsk and in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, blunting any meaningful Russian advances in recent months.
Beyond the trenches, both sides have intensified long-range strikes on energy targets since last summer. Ukraine has suffered recurrent hits to its power grid, worsening nationwide electricity shortages. Russia, for its part, has seen its oil facilities in several regions damaged.
Rising Toll, Unchanged Aims
Neither side has released detailed casualty figures. However, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies put combined Russian military dead, wounded, and missing at around 1.2 million, versus roughly 600,000 for Ukraine.
According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 15,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine over the past four years, with tens of thousands more injured.
Civilian deaths in 2025 alone totaled 2,514 — the highest annual toll since 2023.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the start of what he called a "special military operation" against Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Putin framed the objective as Ukraine's "neutralization" and "demilitarization," to block its accession to NATO, and "denazification," meaning the removal of pro-Western forces from Ukraine.
Since then, Russia has mounted a full-scale invasion, while Ukraine mounted a Western-supported defense. Moscow currently controls about one-fifth of Ukraine's roughly 600,000 square kilometers of territory.
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Author: Yuichi Onoda, The Sankei Shimbun
(Read this article in Japanese)
