How Japan Can Break the Deadlock with North Korea

At the Japan–United States summit in October 2025, President Donald Trump said, "Anything I can do to help Japan, we will be there." 

Following the landslide victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party in the Lower House election in February, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked on Fox News, "When Japan is strong, the US is strong in Asia." 

These statements underscore that Washington is now relying on Tokyo in Asia more than ever before.

During the campaign, Takaichi ran on building a "strong Japan." For the United States, whose global strategy focuses on containing China, a stronger Japan is not just desirable. It's essential to maintain stability and project power in Asia.

North Korea on the Summit Agenda

As the international order faces shifts unseen in a century, Takaichi is set to visit Washington in March for a summit with Trump. 

Observers hope she will do more than absorb Washington's priorities. They hope she will also articulate Japan's own global strategy, its stance in Asia, and its broader vision for the future.

For Japan, the North Korea issue remains a matter of vital importance. It's not just for the country's present and future, but as a key strategic challenge for the world. 

With Trump's visit to China scheduled for April, North Korea is expected to be a major topic of discussion. Japan, eager to resolve the abductions issue, cannot simply ask Trump to "cooperate." 

Having met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un three times, Trump is said to have raised the abduction issue with him on at least two occasions.

Abductions Deadlock

Recently, a North Korean diplomat who defected to South Korea said, "Kim Jong Un is prepared to resolve the abduction issue. He's just waiting for an opportunity to sell it at a high price." 

Some North Korean officials are reportedly demanding $30 billion USD in post-war reparations to settle the abductions cases. But regardless of the amount, any economic cooperation with North Korea would require lifting international sanctions and securing US approval. 

The nuclear issue must also be resolved as a prerequisite. But if we continue to follow this sequential logic, won't the abductions issue risk remaining unresolved indefinitely?

The international community has tried every conceivable means to extract concessions from Kim Jong Un. It has pursued dialogue and offered support, imposed harsh economic sanctions, and even issued direct threats. 

In August 2017, Trump even warned that he had been "too soft" and that Kim would "face fire and fury." Yet none of these measures succeeded.

The Limits of Pressure Tactics

There are essentially only two scenarios that could compel the Kim regime to act. First would be a scenario in which Kim feels genuinely concerned about his regime's survival. Or, a dramatic improvement in relations with the US that alters the strategic calculus. 

In reality, however, both possibilities appear to have receded. Any notion that the US might carry out a decapitation operation against Kim — similar to its reported actions against Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela — is virtually inconceivable given the catastrophic risks involved. 

With North Korea, there is also the potential for nuclear escalation and uncontrollable regional conflict. The regime has repeatedly warned that foreign military intervention constitutes a violation of its sovereignty and would prompt severe retaliation.

Moreover, the US has no core interests in North Korea, and the country ranks low on its global strategic priorities. Pyongyang possesses nuclear weapons and maintains mutual defense agreements with Beijing and Moscow, making any aggressive action extremely risky. 

Carrying out a decapitation strike against Kim Jong Un would require a willingness to provoke conflict not only on the Korean Peninsula but also with China and Russia — an escalation the US is unlikely to undertake.

While tightening economic sanctions is an option, they won't work on Kim. He has no intention of caring for his people and doesn't need to. North Korea is a country where the regime won't collapse even if its citizens starve to death and its infrastructure is destroyed.

Revitalizing Ties to Resolve Abductions

So what if Takaichi were to propose to Washington a plan to guarantee the continuation of the Kim regime? To resolve the abductions issue, Japan would need to be prepared to offer Kim something he considers acceptable in return.

This approach is neither humanitarian aid nor an endorsement of North Korea's nuclear program. A realistic path would involve the United States recognizing North Korea as a sovereign state, signing a peace treaty, and normalizing relations. 

On the nuclear issue, the goal should not be to seize North Korea's weapons, but to render them unnecessary. Its nuclear arsenal is intended to preserve the regime, not to attack the United States. 

Conceivably, the US could establish bases in northern North Korea under the pretext of guaranteeing Pyongyang's security. If that were to happen, the encirclement of China by the free world would be complete, potentially making Asia a safer region.

In other words, the breakthrough depends on improving US–North Korea relations, while both the US and Japan promise North Korea economic reconstruction. 

Engaging  Pyongyang for Asian Strategy

Japan's 2002 Pyongyang Declaration committed Tokyo to "provide economic cooperation, including grant aids, long-term loans with low interest rates and assistance as humanitarian assistance through international organizations, over a period of time," to North Korea.  

Implementation of the Declaration is contingent upon resolving the abductions issue. So once that stage is reached, the abductions issue would naturally be addressed. Such economic engagement would, moreover, allow Japan to actively engage with Pyongyang, thereby strengthening its strategic position in Asia.

If Takaichi can persuade Trump to break the deadlock with North Korea and initiate economic cooperation, Japan's role in Asia could shift from that of a bench player to a central actor. 

A stronger Japan, in turn, reinforces US strength and influence across the region.

RELATED:

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• Trump, Venezuela, and Tokyo's Constitutional Moment  
• Will North Korea Agree to Meet Japan on the Abductions Issue?

Author: Sotetsu Lee

(Read this article in Japanese)