On March 1, Reuters obtained this image showing a tanker emitting black smoke after being attacked off the coast of Oman.
Iran refused to abandon its nuclear weapons program, and now the United States and Israel have attacked it. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died, and the top ranks of the Iranian regime were decimated.
US President Donald Trump appears cautious about committing US ground troops, which could turn the situation into a quagmire.
Iran has counterattacked with ballistic missiles, drones, and other weapons. However, having been hit by overwhelming attacks by the US and Israel at the start of the war, Tehran is finding it difficult to launch fully organized counterattacks.
Japan must not let its guard down during this crisis. Understandably, the Takaichi administration is taking various precautionary measures as quickly as possible. Implementing plans to transport Japanese nationals seeking evacuation from Israel is appropriate. Also, the government should take all possible measures to rescue Japanese nationals in Iran.
Threats to Trade and Transportation
Traffic has been halted through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint on a key route for transporting crude oil. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have further announced attacks on US and British oil tankers, setting them on fire.
Japan relies on the Middle East for the greater share of its crude oil imports. Oil reserves are currently sufficient to last for more than 250 days, but liquefied natural gas reserves could last for only about three weeks. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are rising, and exchange rate fluctuations could lead to much higher prices. Depending on regional developments, the government may need to expedite support to lighten the burden on people's daily lives.
Another concern is that Iran might lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf. If that happens, the minesweeping capabilities of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force are among the best in the world. Japan also dispatched a MSDF minesweeper unit to the Persian Gulf 35 years ago. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi should be prepared to deploy minesweeping forces at any time if the need arises.
Risks in Northeast Asia
As US forces concentrate in the Middle East, the possibility of military provocations in Northeast Asia by China, Russia, and North Korea could increase. For that reason, the Self-Defense Forces must be on increased alert.
Some have criticized the Japanese government for not condemning the attack on Iran as a violation of international law. However, Russia's aggression against Ukraine, which was totally unjustified, still cannot be equated with the attack on Iran.
Notably, Tehran has refused to abandon its nuclear weapons program despite years of negotiations. Furthermore, it has unleashed terrorist forces to run rampant around the world.
Rather than criticizing the US, the Japanese government must analyze the likely impact of the Iran conflict on the global situation and Japan's security. Then it should respond accordingly.
Coordination Among Leaders
Prime Minister Takaichi has refrained from commenting on the merits of the attacks. Instead, she has reiterated that Japan would not accept Iran's development of nuclear weapons, saying, "We will cooperate with the international community and make all necessary diplomatic efforts to quickly calm the situation."
Hopefully, she will also coordinate closely with President Trump at their upcoming March summit meeting.
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Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun
