Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Crown Prince Ulukalala of Tonga shake hands before their meeting at a hotel in Tokyo on February 23. (Pool photo)
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As China sharpens its expansionist posture across the Indo-Pacific, Japan has made it clear that it will be the bulwark between China's expansionism and the region's smaller powers. On February 23, 2026, Shinjiro Koizumi, Japan's Minister of Defense, delivered this keynote message to representatives from 14 Pacific Island Countries at the Japan-Pacific Island Defense Dialogue.
This was not rhetorical diplomacy. It was a doctrinal signal. Under the United States' 2025 National Security Strategy and 2026 National Defense Strategy, the US confirmed its focus on the Western Pacific. However, it also put the onus of security on individual countries. In that context, Japan has positioned itself as a regional leader for security.
This transformation marks more than a policy adjustment. It reflects a thematic shift in Asian geopolitics caused by the erosion of the rules-based order, the rise of coercive power politics led by Beijing, and the emergence of Japan as the region's security stabilizer. Japan has made it clear that it will not passively observe the steady militarization and strategic encirclement underway in the Indo-Pacific. And its overtures have been received positively.
As per polling, Southeast Asian countries see Japan as reliable and the region's most trusted major power – an extraordinary shift for a country long constrained by its postwar constitution.
Yet the paradox remains: while China is seen as ASEAN's most important economic partner, its behavior, marked by maritime incursions, coercive diplomacy, and assertive territorial claims, has eroded trust. The region depends on China economically, but fears it strategically.
A Measurable Transformation
Beijing's gray zone operations in the South China Sea, its naval exercises asserting sweeping territorial claims, and its growing militarization of contested waters have sharpened Tokyo's threat perception. Japan has responded with strategic calibration rather than provocation. It has expanded maritime exercises, strengthened port calls by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, and deepened defense cooperation with key Southeast Asian partners.
The transformation is measurable. Japan's defense engagement with Southeast Asia surged from 15th place in 2017 to 4th in 2025's regional rankings. Cooperation is particularly robust with the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Since 2014, Japan's military exercises with maritime Southeast Asian states have steadily expanded. Port calls by the JMSDF are now routine rather than symbolic.
Official Security Assistance
More significantly, Japan institutionalized its strategic intent through the launch of Official Security Assistance in 2022. Unlike China's opaque security deals, OSA provides transparent, non-lethal defense support like coastal radar systems, rigid-hulled inflatable boats, and air surveillance equipment, particularly to frontline states like the Philippines.
This enhances maritime domain awareness without forcing political alignment or debt dependency. It is security cooperation without coercion.
At the systemic level, the erosion of the rules-based international order has accelerated Japan's strategic awakening. China's rapid military build-up in the East and South China Seas, combined with the Russia-Ukraine war, has demonstrated a sobering lesson: security guarantees cannot be outsourced indefinitely.
The US call for greater allied self-reliance has introduced both uncertainty and responsibility. For Japan — long reliant on American extended deterrence — this means strategic autonomy must complement alliance dependence.
North Korea's missile threats, its growing proximity to Moscow, and the expanding China-Russia alignment have compounded Tokyo's concerns. The emerging axis of authoritarian coordination reinforces Japan's urgency to modernize its military posture.
Chinese Reactions
This new trust has not gone unnoticed by China. Predictably, Beijing has responded with hostility. China has amplified narratives about Japan's wartime past, warning against "remilitarization" while ignoring its own unprecedented military expansion.
When Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi spoke in favor of defending Taiwan and smaller regional states from Chinese coercion, bilateral tensions intensified. China's reaction has followed a familiar script: economic coercion. Beijing has amplified its efforts to curb Japanese remilitarization by imposing export controls on Japanese businesses and entities.
A blacklist of 20 entities "participating in enhancing Japan's military capabilities" was issued, which included Mitsubishi Shipbuilding and several Mitsubishi Heavy Industries subsidiaries, several IHI Corporation companies, the National Defense Academy, and Japan's space agency, JAXA. China's ministry has banned the export of dual-use items to these companies and organizations. Exporters will need special permission where export may be deemed necessary.
Additionally, a "watch list" was also issued. It lists 20 Japanese entities, including carmakers such as Subaru and Hino Motors. Also on the list are electric machinery-makers such as Nitto Denko and Yashima Denki, ENEOS, and the Institute of Science Tokyo. As per reports, Beijing said the purpose of the ban is to address Japan's "remilitarization and nuclear ambitions," adding that these measures are "justified, reasonable, and lawful."
Beijing's 'Standard Strategy'
Economic coercion has been China's standard strategy to bully nations into capitulating to its demands. In reality, it exemplifies China's standard coercive toolkit: weaponize trade to discipline dissent.
This approach mirrors Beijing's behavior toward Australia, Lithuania, South Korea, and the Philippines. Economic interdependence becomes leverage. Leverage also becomes intimidation.
Meanwhile, US officials have accused China of "massively expanding" its nuclear weapons arsenal. This also acts to reinforce broader concerns about strategic instability. China demands others remain restrained while it accelerates its own military modernization. It is a dual standard that undermines China's claims of peaceful rise.
Japan's Deepening Defense Ties
Japan's response has been neither emotional nor reckless. It has deepened defense ties not only within Southeast Asia but also with the United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, New Zealand, India, and the European Union. The logic is clear: deterrence must be networked. The phrase "Ukraine today, East Asia tomorrow" resonates in Tokyo's strategic community.
China's discomfort with Japan's expanding partnerships is telling. It recognizes that a coordinated democratic front limits its room for unilateral assertion. China understands that as long as Japan stands, Chinese ambitions may never be fulfilled in East Asia.
Beijing's attempts to intimidate Tokyo through export bans and blacklists only reinforce the argument for diversification and resilience. Economic coercion is not a sign of confidence ー it is an admission of strategic insecurity.
The emerging regional order is no longer defined solely by economic gravity but by trust, reliability, and restraint. China may remain indispensable economically, but it is Japan that is becoming indispensable strategically.
If the Indo-Pacific is to avoid sliding into a sphere-of-influence system dictated by coercion, Japan's role as the Pacific shield will not just be symbolic ー it will be structural.
RELATED:
- The Takaichi-Trump Summit – Some Thoughts for the PM and President
- A Rules-Based Order and the New Logic of Deterrence
- Why China's Hard-Line Approach Towards Japan Is Counterproductive
Author: Professor Pema Gyalpo, PhD
Dr Pema Gyalpo is a Visiting Professor at the Takushoku University Center for Indo-Pacific Strategic Studies.
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