Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi speaks during a keynote address. (©Mika Sugiura)
Security challenges are escalating around the world, from the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Against this backdrop, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi outlined the goals of Japan's security policy at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals' (JINF) monthly forum on March 3.
Abe's Vision Expands Westward
In his keynote address, Koizumi reflected on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision championed by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
He cited Abe's 2007 speech in India, "Confluence of the Two Seas," in which the late prime minister said the Pacific and Indian Oceans were forming a dynamic union as seas of freedom and prosperity.
The Defense Minister added that the Indo-Pacific strategy "has now expanded and evolved to include Europe and the Atlantic."
That shift reflects the growing interconnection between security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. "Our friends in Italy, the United Kingdom, and NATO routinely say that security in the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic region is inseparable," Koizumi said.
"Over 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia to learn cutting-edge warfare techniques [in the Ukraine war] and bring them back home," he added. "Where they intend to apply that knowledge goes without saying."
His remarks suggested that the war in Ukraine carries lessons for Japan, which similarly confronts security challenges from North Korea.
Adapting to New Security Threats
In the modern era, Koizumi said, security is no longer confined to the military but spans a wide range of fields.
"The economy, financial systems, technology, resources, information, and cyberspace — all of these are being weaponized," he said.
Given this reality, the Defense Minister explained that Tokyo is moving ahead with revisions to its three strategic documents, including the National Security Strategy.
He outlined three major pillars:
- Adapting to new forms of warfare, such as drones
- Sustaining combat over extended periods through endurance capability
- Strengthening Pacific defense
Still, he noted that "even the most ambitious strategies ultimately depend on people," stressing the need to improve conditions for Self-Defense Forces personnel and strengthening their human resources base.
"I hope Japan will continue to protect what must be safeguarded for peace, and secure a future for the next generation," he said, expressing his desire to broaden support among the public, allies, and partner nations.
Rising Global Threats
Following the keynote address, a panel discussion was held featuring Yoshiko Sakurai, chairperson of the JINF, Hiroshi Yuasa, special correspondent for The Sankei Shimbun, and Kiyofumi Iwata, former Chief of Staff of the Ground Self-Defense Force.
Iwata noted that Russia has rejected even President Trump's peace proposal, despite it being favorable to Moscow. Given this, he said it would be prudent to assume the war in Ukraine will continue until Russia believes it can no longer sustain the fight.
The world, he argued, has entered "an era of raw power politics."
The former defense force chief also pointed out that over the past two years, between 100 and 2,000 Chinese fishing vessels — closely controlled by the central government — have gathered in the East China Sea.
He argued that this, together with the Chinese Communist Party's purge of military leaders, suggests that there are no longer factions capable of restraining President Xi Jinping from launching an attack on Taiwan.
In light of recent developments, JINF chair Sakurai said "the possibility of China invading Taiwan next year is increasing."
Meanwhile, Yuasa stressed the importance of asking "who stands to gain" when assessing the international situation. Referring to the US attack on Iran, he said that if Washington fails to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions, China could fill the resulting power vacuum in the Indo-Pacific, adding that "Japan is in a very dangerous position."
Building a Stronger Japan
The panel also addressed the need to strengthen Japan's defense capabilities. Drawing on his recent discussions in Europe, Koizumi argued that Japan must simultaneously build its own capabilities.
"A stronger Japan will reassure our allies and like-minded nations," he said, adding that "it's crucial not to send the wrong signal that aggression could succeed."
Koizumi emphasized that deterrence remains essential to preventing conflict. "We must never allow new wars or conflicts to break out," he said. "To that end, we must maintain sufficient deterrence and defense capabilities."
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Author: Mika Sugiura
(Read this article in Japanese)
