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The LDP-Ishin no Kai tie-up potentially allows Japan to think about defense in a way that every other free nation on earth thinks about defense.
Takaichi Yoshimura Fujita LDP Ishin no Kai

Hirofumi Yoshimura and Fumitake Fujita, co-leaders of the Japan Restoration Party, pose with LDP president Sanae Takaichi on October 21. (Courtesy, National Diet)

A Japanese official told me in confidence that Japan was going to relax its rules on defense exports "soon." That was in 1995. The rules have gradually relaxed over the last three decades, but they are still considerable.

At long last, new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her coalition partner, Nippon Ishin no Kai, are poised to remove remaining restraints on defense exports, as announced in their recent joint policy statement.

What's the significance?

It's as much mental as anything. And it goes beyond "exports," as Japan scrapes away the accretion of self-imposed restrictions on this and the most normal of defense-related activities.

Taken with other language in the new joint policy statement, Japan may start to see itself as a "normal" country when it comes to its defense. This includes strengthening its capabilities while engaging freely with other nations' militaries ー as it has started doing in recent years.

Acknowledging What's Possible

Japan's shift potentially reduces, if not ends, the over-reliance on the United States, which tended to stunt Japan's defense ー and Japanese thinking about national defense.

Too often, when it came to defense, Japanese would start from the premise that something was "not possible." Ore that it was "too hard." That thinking needed to change.

The limitations on arms exports have, in fact, been breaking down for some years now. Consider that Japan was prepared to build and export submarines to Australia in 2016. That's a lethal weapon if there ever was one.

But once the export rules are removed, it won't be necessary to engage in the verbal gymnastics and outright sophistry often used to justify particular exports in the past.

And Japanese industry's view of the defense business might change.

Japanese industry has never viewed defense exports as an attractive and profitable business. Exporting was difficult, if not impossible, so why bother just building for the small domestic market?

New Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi holds a press conference after taking office on October 22. (Pool photo)

In theory, removing export restrictions could alter business thinking. Companies that make defense hardware and equipment that might be in demand overseas may now prioritize this line of work. And their greater and steadier demand should bolster the overall business.

One wouldn't expect Japan to become a major arms and equipment exporter overnight, and the defense export business is a sharp-elbowed game. But the door will at least be opened. And this tends to create markets and opportunities one may not yet see.

Building Stronger Ties with Other Countries

Also, Japan can start to more freely use defense exports to build defense (and political and economic) ties with other countries.

We've already seen this with the Philippines ー with Tokyo donating retired Japan Coast Guard cutters. And there's talk of selling actual naval combatants. 

Japan recently signed an agreement to provide new destroyers to Australia ー some built in Japan and some in Australia.

There's talk that New Zealand might be a potential customer, also. Then there is the possible sale of soon-to-be-retired Japan MSDF destroyers to Indonesia and Vietnam.

The JMSDF Mogami-class frigate is the base design for the joint Japan-Australia development of a next generation frigate. (Courtesy of the Maritime Staff Office)

Part of the 'Arsenal of Democracy'

Japan could also start to see itself as part of the "arsenal of democracy" ー willing to produce weapons, ammunition, and hardware (for a price, of course) for other allies and friends that need restocking or that lack production capacity.

We've seen this already in a limited way. Japan transferred Japan-built Patriot missiles to the Americans to replenish US supplies that had dwindled from supplying Ukraine. 

Indeed, Japan might even supply Ukraine directly if things progress a certain way once the export rules are removed. Stranger things have happened.

Letting Go of Komeito

Getting rid of the Liberal Democratic Party's partnership with the Komeito party helped.

The Komeito tie-up was a constant brake on efforts to improve Japan's Self-Defense Force capabilities and take a firm stance ー and countermeasures ー against adversaries' pressure on Japan. Those would be China, North Korea, and Russia. 

LDP President Sanae Takaichi, after meeting with Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito. Behind her is Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki. (Inside the Diet on October 10)

Komeito was more than just anti-military. There's a compelling case to be made that Komeito was heavily influenced, and perhaps taking direction, from Beijing.

The LDP-Ishin no Kai tie-up potentially allows Japan to think about defense in a way that every other free nation on earth thinks about defense. Without Komeito. Japan's allies and friends ought to welcome this.

It was tiresome when the Japanese would rattle off 10 reasons why they couldn't do something that needed to be done.

Things often go slowly in Japan, but they do go ー even if it's at Japan speed.

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Author: Grant Newsham

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America. Find his articles on JAPAN Forward.

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